TheTrials Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 From ohleary in the main forum thread i started: "The NAM (like the other major models) has a warm start with data assimilation, which should pretty much wipe out any spin up issues. Spin up is mainly an issue with a model that has a cold start, i.e. initialized with another more coarse model run with no data assimilation. From the MetEd site (need a login to access the "How Mesoscale Models Work" module): "The spin-up problem depends on whether the model had a “warm start” or “cold start.” In a warm start, the model uses a data assimilation system to incorporate data, such as surface observations and soundings, over a long time to help create the analysis. The data assimilation system merges observations with the model run in such a way as to preserve the ongoing circulation. This way, the resulting analysis will not exactly match surface observations, but will reflect an ongoing evolution of conditions just prior to the analysis." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Check out the heavy precipitation along the warm front extension to the northeast of the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 The NAM has that front near our area during the best pw values, too. Could be a nice 6 hour tropical-type rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 The NAM has that front near our area during the best pw values, too. Could be a nice 6 hour tropical-type rain. are you thinking more than 1-3? Do you see the storm as being disjoiinted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 This reminds me of a storm we had right around this time 2 years ago. Was supposed to rain all day Saturday and essentially we had some early rain and then just scattered showers on and off all day. At night however we got pummeled with heavy rain and storms but all in a fairly short period of time. are you thinking more than 1-3? Do you see the storm as being disjoiinted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 12z NAM has a 2"-4" areawide rainfall while the 12z GFS keeps the heavy rain well east of the city. Only .50"-.75" for the city. Euro has been on the wet camp for days, so GFS is most likely dead wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 12z NAM has a 2"-4" areawide rainfall while the 12z GFS keeps the heavy rain well east of the city. Only .50"-.75" for the city. Euro has been on the wet camp for days, so GFS is most likely dead wrong. This thing is moving pretty fast-my gut feeling says no one gets 3 or 4 inches....and I can see it missing east, not by as much as the GFS has it, but somewhere in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Off topic for a minute where can I find the boxing day blizzard forum from the time about when the models changed on Christmas eve day?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 This thing is moving pretty fast-my gut feeling says no one gets 3 or 4 inches....and I can see it missing east, not by as much as the GFS has it, but somewhere in between. We know you will be the first to post bust when the amounts don't verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 We know you will be the first to post bust when the amounts don't verify. maybe! I'm sure we'll all get a soaking but 3-4 inches from something that is rocketing north and east? Doubtful. Heaviest rains would be in a 6 hr stretch--a given location would have to average .75 an hr for that period to get those amounts...just don't see it happening for most spots in our area in this setup. Also, The GFS should be a warning that the big rains may escape east..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 rgem for those that don't know this is in mm. Most I can see is about 3 inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Look on page 20 of the main page of this forum Off topic for a minute where can I find the boxing day blizzard forum from the time about when the models changed on Christmas eve day?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Look on page 20 of the main page of this forum Thank you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 no problem, but you'll have at least 8-10,000 posts to go through :-) Thank you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 18, 2011 Author Share Posted October 18, 2011 With strong isentropic lift tonight, expect rain to come in sooner than forecasted by the models tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 12z euro looks closer to the GFS then the wetter camps (NAM). Has the heaviest rains east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 12z euro looks closer to the GFS then the wetter camps (NAM). Has the heaviest rains east. 00z run tonight of the Euro is the lock it in run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 18, 2011 Author Share Posted October 18, 2011 12Z RGEM Total Rain 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 12z euro looks closer to the GFS then the wetter camps (NAM). Has the heaviest rains east. No flood watches anywhere in the Northeastern US either.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 No flood watches anywhere in the Northeastern US either.... well, what's left to flood? everything has been flooded so much already, what is a watch going to do? make it rain less? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 18z NAM continues the 2"-3" areawide rain.18z GFS has barely .25" for NYC and .10"-.25" for Jersey. Just slight differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Looking at the current radar trends I would think NYC will see one to two inches of rain. The NAM is also better for the short range, but I would reduce the precip. amounts a little due to convective feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 18z NAM continues the 2"-3" areawide rain.18z GFS has barely .25" for NYC and .10"-.25" for Jersey. Just slight differences. Split the difference b/w the 2 are you are all set...Nam is almost always too wet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Heavy rain approaching cental jersey going to be driving into it, cant wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Heavy rain over NYC and LI. GFS had .25" of total rain. OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Looks like more of a dry slot pushing north now with the heavy rain near Eastern NC passing east of us this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 0.36 so far, probably end up with around .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 so much for the Nam totals...a inch will likely do it for the highest amts...no big deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 so much for the Nam totals...a inch will likely do it for the highest amts...no big deal you do realize there is a second part of the storm, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 0.36 so far, probably end up with around .75 so much for the Nam totals...a inch will likely do it for the highest amts...no big deal you two should try a new show, this one is getting old. It's still raining with embedded heavier bands. Also, let's see what happens later with the second part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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