tmagan Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I was going to state this in the 'October' thread, but thought it deserved its own thread. I am liking the signs for heavy rain late next week. Among the factors involved: 1) Good high latitude blocking near the Davis Strait. 2) Possible tropical moisture from the Caribbean. 3) Deep, negatively tilted trough at 500 mb in the eastern United States. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 12z Euro showcasing big storm potential as well, huge deep trough going negative along the EC MJO is favorable for an east coast storm as well i believe, phase 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 12z Euro showcasing big storm potential as well, huge deep trough going negative along the EC MJO is favorable for an east coast storm as well i believe, phase 8. 12Z ECM has a substantial Miller B setup with a strong negative tilt with the newly formed LP going east of the Island. It would be a kick ass setup in winter time, although a FM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Interesting stuff out there right now with this storm potential the euro is mighty cold despite being weaker then the canadain. GFS 18z run leaves allot of energy on the back side and has a more active southern jet the previous runs. MJO will be going through stage 7 into stage 8. most of our major Nor'easters have occurred during this to top it off we will have a negative NAO and + PNA. with the cold put out by the euro and the strong low that the canadain has. One would thing this generates it's own cold air. none the less I have liked this time frame for a few weeks now for a major storm. higher elevations of central pa and perhaps the Poconos could see there first flakes of the season. Even more interesting if the euro upper level temperatures were to verified places along I 95 would mix in with sleet as the low passes. Of course this is low confidence and everything has to be perfect but as for the mountains I really do think they will see flakes from this. just too weeks ago they had accumulation out in central pa from a much weaker system. Either way this will be a wet and windy system anyone from north Carolina to Maine need to watch this as it will ride right up the coast or I95 as a power system much like the blizzards we saw last winter just warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 12z euro about a inch of rain this week.....then more on the way the following week....drying out does not seem likely anytime soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 12z euro about a inch of rain this week.....then more on the way the following week....drying out does not seem likely anytime soon Do you think that we could get the record for the wettest year on record at Central Park? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Do you think that we could get the record for the wettest year on record at Central Park? I believe the record is 81 inches.......it will be hard to pass...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 I believe the record is 81 inches.......it will be hard to pass...... That record is very questionable. I checked the 1983 totals for six other nyc stations including my own and they were all in the 61- 67 in. range, no where close to 81 inches. If you check out the utah state climate site many daily totals are x out for cpk during that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 16, 2011 Author Share Posted October 16, 2011 Severe weather now a possibility based on the operational models tonight for Wednesday afternoon/evening, just need the instability to be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Yep. If we get into the warm sector, then it's game on for a fine line of svr. Agree with you on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Que the posts on how this is a bad sign for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Que the posts on how this is a bad sign for the winter. means absolutely nothing. Get it out of the way now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 The wavelengths are longer in December anyway, plus the NAO has a greater affect on the pattern in the winter months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 It goes either way. I remember in 09? The huge bomb lakes cutter and everyone was screaming cutter pattern for winter ...and we know how 09-10 winter turned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 i like seeing the big storms, cuttter or off the coast doesn't really matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 I literally said WOW to myself when looking at the 12z GFS, that is quite the impressive storm, 120kt mid-level jet streak off Long Island. Too bad it wasn't winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Really great tropical moisture feed setting up. The further west the low tracks, the heavier the rains should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 The GFS has been de-amplified and farther east with this system the entire time. It's slowly trying to back to the west--the 12z NAM was far west over Central PA with extremely favorable dynamics over our area Wed 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 The GFS has been de-amplified and farther east with this system the entire time. It's slowly trying to back to the west--the 12z NAM was far west over Central PA with extremely favorable dynamics over our area Wed 18z. This may be a case where the primary does go west, but we have a warmfront extension with maybe a triple point forming and moving near NYC, before the whole occlusion comes through. Either way, could be a relatively quick but soaking for NYC and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 This may be a case where the primary does go west, but we have a warmfront extension with maybe a triple point forming and moving near NYC, before the whole occlusion comes through. Either way, could be a relatively quick but soaking for NYC and SNE. Is this a case where we get heavy rains from the warm front followed by a short break then a line of convection followed by rapid clearing and dropping temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 This may be a case where the primary does go west, but we have a warmfront extension with maybe a triple point forming and moving near NYC, before the whole occlusion comes through. Either way, could be a relatively quick but soaking for NYC and SNE. I agree. Interestingly the NAM has the warm front pretty well defined, extending northeast from the low pressure system. The heaviest rain occurs right along that boundary which is visible in the bending isobars. You can see the main shortwave is still back over the Southeast US...and it's arrival would likely be accompanied by a mid level dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 The 00z NAM has the low level jet disconnected a bit to the east--and the heaviest precipitation on the nose of the low level jet is over Long Island and farther east. This is a bit of a shift from the earlier afternoon guidance...we'll have to see what the remaining models go with tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 0z Euro has 1"-1.50" of rain areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 the fast upper level flow over the canadian maritimes mean this event will be progressive. one shot of heavy rain from the waa and then we get the dry tongue... 1-3" with heavier amounts in any areas that get more convection... probably over LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 12z NAM has 2"-3" for all of NYC/LI, NJ and SWCT. Big bump from its previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 12z NAM has 2"-3" for all of NYC/LI, NJ and SWCT. Big bump from its previous runs. and 6 hrs before the event, it will chop it in half again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 and 6 hrs before the event, it will chop it in half again... 6 hours before the event is because the model does not have enough time to "spin-up" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 6 hours before the event is because the model does not have enough time to "spin-up" what? Explain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 6 hours before the event is because the model does not have enough time to "spin-up" we saw that happen before a few of our snowstorms last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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