Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event? Part III

[beavis1729]

Not what his location says. Either way i can assure all we wont have a track that far nw ( not with that ) and if we do Hoosier can have my account deleted here. Thats how certain i am.

Fine...but I wish you'd be a little less antagonistic in your replies. Eevry time you come in here, you bring out an attitude...uncalled for imo.

We'll see how things unfold...but can't you treat others with a little bit of respect???

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Finally a forecast from accuweather devoid of hype. Brett Anderson has released his predictions and he shows Ottawa and Toronto both getting 8-15 cm (or 3-6") of snow, with Ottawa being right on the rain/snow line. Montreal he says gets mostly rain due to a southeasterly wind, as does Kingston. Overall, a huge letdown compared to what might have been. Still, I'll take 3-6" of snow over nothing, and deffinately over cold rain or freezing rain.

[Hoosier]

Read my post about 5 pages back/2 hours ago about the CMC being the solution of choice at this time.

That's right, you did say that. With the talk about the northern solutions it sorta seemed like you were in the NAM camp or even farther north.

[Harry]

I understand where you are coming from harry. Also, being in MN and hoping for a particular solution plays no part in this. Having a background in at sci and also having modeling experience gives me a significant edge...I am not giving reasoning to fit what I want to happen. Simple fact is every storm is different and simple conceptual models do very little in explaining this.

The whole point i was making is that it is a garbage run. I know every storm is different but this as the NAM suggests seems a bit far fetched. You don't think it looks far fetched?

But yeah it is a off run 18z and the NAM we are talking about as well. lol

lol...no need for crazy talk like that Harry.

Not crazy. I just feel strongly about it. I have never seen a storm do what this model suggests with the set up it has.

[snowstormcanuck]

-+

Finally a forecast from accuweather devoid of hype. Brett Anderson has released his predictions and he shows Ottawa and Toronto both getting 8-15 cm (or 3-6") of snow, with Ottawa being right on the rain/snow line. Montreal he says gets mostly rain due to a southeasterly wind, as does Kingston. Overall, a huge letdown compared to what might have been. Still, I'll take 3-6" of snow over nothing, and deffinately over cold rain or freezing rain.

Is he thinking the primary low is still going to stay south, or are those accumulations due to some type of secondary cyclogenesis over NYS/NNE?

[Harry]

Fine...but I wish you'd be a little less antagonistic in your replies. Eevry time you come in here, you bring out an attitude...uncalled for imo.

We'll see how things unfold...but can't you treat others with a little bit of respect???

When i get a reasonable response i do but when i get told about met 101 i do take a bit exception to it. Don't get wise with me and i'll do the same. Pretty easy.

[buckeye]

Consensus

so HPC has 3 preferred tracks???

[snowstormcanuck]

18z GFS looks like a carbon copy through 36.

[WxMidwest]

I think everyone needs to be cautious here. How many times have we had to wait for a clipper to go by an effected baroclinic zone and a need for a complete sampling off the Pacific Coast Wave/Energy before the models/forecasters actually have a "REAL" consensus on where any Low is going, a phase occurs, speed of the low,or if a low intensifies or not. I don't know how many times we have seen these Cross-Country/Inland Runners change track and some of the models lack having a clue until everything is sampled. Even small changes in a sample of the wave can create decent differences from what happens in Reality and to what the Models are showing. I think everybody on this board has seen consensus scenarios explicated to reason and within 24-36 hours this consensus dies.

That being said, I enjoy reading all the mets, hobbyists, and pros putting in there two cents.

[baroclinic_instability]

When i get a reasonable response i do but when i get told about met 101 i do take a bit exception to it. Don't get wise with me and i'll do the same. Pretty easy.

I wasn't "wise" with you. That was the nice way of suggesting your graphic was not all that valid. If you feel I was responding incorrectly, I am sorry. 18Z GFS tracking N with every other trend.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

-+

Is he thinking the primary low is still going to stay south, or are those accumulations due to some type of secondary cyclogenesis over NYS/NNE?

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/anderson/story/42790/weekend-storm-snowfall-forecast-map.asp

[Chicago Storm]

Nice portion of the AFD from DVN...

COMMENT...MAJOR CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED THE PAST 24 HRS OF RUNS WITH

FURTHER LATENT HEAT DRIVEN CHANGES EXPECTED. THE EVENT THIS WEEKEND

IS HIGHLY NON-LINEAR WHICH MODELS BY THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ARE

HAVING SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH. MAIN SFC LOW TO PASS MAINLY NORTH

OR NORTH OF AREA WITH INTENSE BACKSIDE ENERGY TO PHASE INTO SYSTEM

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THIS IS 300 TO 400 MILES FURTHER

NORTH THAN SUITE OF SOLUTIONS JUST 24 TO 30 HOURS AGO. THIS EVENT

WILL LEAD TO A 3 TO 4 SIGMA STRONG STORM SYSTEM ON EAST COAST BY LATE

SUNDAY. MUCH OF THIS SAME ENERGY WILL FIND ITS WAY INTO EUROPE BY DAY

6...LASTING INTO DAY 12 WITH CONTINUED IMPRESSIVE COLD STILL ON TAP

THERE PER YESTERDAY/S AFTERNOON DISCUSSION. THE PHASING OF LATENT

HEAT ENERGY IS ONE OF THE MOST UNUSUAL ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM...IT

WILL GO INTO THIS FORECASTER/S ARCHIVE FOR FURTHER STUDY/REFERENCE.

THE MODEL RUN TO RUN CHANGES ON ALL SOLUTIONS ARE SOME OF THE LARGEST

RECENTLY SEEN IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. NOT SURPRISING FOR A DEVELOPING 3

TO 4 PLUS SIGMA EVENT WHICH BY DEFINITION IS ROUGHLY A 1 IN 100...UP

TO OVER 1 IN 1000 PLUS PERCENTAGE PHENOMENA WHICH MODELS AREN/T

EXPLICITLY DESIGNED FOR.

[snowstormcanuck]

http://www.accuweath...orecast-map.asp

Thanks

[baroclinic_instability]

Nice portion of the AFD from DVN...

COMMENT...MAJOR CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED THE PAST 24 HRS OF RUNS WITH

FURTHER LATENT HEAT DRIVEN CHANGES EXPECTED. THE EVENT THIS WEEKEND

IS HIGHLY NON-LINEAR WHICH MODELS BY THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ARE

HAVING SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH. MAIN SFC LOW TO PASS MAINLY NORTH

OR NORTH OF AREA WITH INTENSE BACKSIDE ENERGY TO PHASE INTO SYSTEM

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THIS IS 300 TO 400 MILES FURTHER

NORTH THAN SUITE OF SOLUTIONS JUST 24 TO 30 HOURS AGO. THIS EVENT

WILL LEAD TO A 3 TO 4 SIGMA STRONG STORM SYSTEM ON EAST COAST BY LATE

SUNDAY. MUCH OF THIS SAME ENERGY WILL FIND ITS WAY INTO EUROPE BY DAY

6...LASTING INTO DAY 12 WITH CONTINUED IMPRESSIVE COLD STILL ON TAP

THERE PER YESTERDAY/S AFTERNOON DISCUSSION. THE PHASING OF LATENT

HEAT ENERGY IS ONE OF THE MOST UNUSUAL ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM...IT

WILL GO INTO THIS FORECASTER/S ARCHIVE FOR FURTHER STUDY/REFERENCE.

THE MODEL RUN TO RUN CHANGES ON ALL SOLUTIONS ARE SOME OF THE LARGEST

RECENTLY SEEN IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. NOT SURPRISING FOR A DEVELOPING 3

TO 4 PLUS SIGMA EVENT WHICH BY DEFINITION IS ROUGHLY A 1 IN 100...UP

TO OVER 1 IN 1000 PLUS PERCENTAGE PHENOMENA WHICH MODELS AREN/T

EXPLICITLY DESIGNED FOR.

Very good points here, and this is in a way what I am trying to refer to and what I have been saying here for a while. The slight change in the cold air associated with the polar vortex can mean meaningful changes (in this case phasing), in this case massive changes since cyclogenesis of this type is positive feedback. Massive changes don't mean they are "garbage". There are meaningful trends here, and they need to be considered.

[TruePatriot]

Chanhassen pulling the trigger. Winter storm watch issued for the Twin Cities.

[buckeye]

18z GFS looks like a carbon copy through 36.

closes off low at 48 hrs....

blech

[wisconsinwx]

http://www.accuweath...orecast-map.asp

This scenario would be nice, but in my local AFD it indicated the snowfall amounts should be lower near the lake due to E or NE winds. I'm assuming he didn't account for that here. Blizzard with 12-18" between Milwaukee and Green Bay would be interesting.

[buckeye]

would i be correct in assuming that if the gfs wasnt closing that 500 at 48 there would be a much better possibility of a full on phase with the vortex??

[Harry]

I wasn't "wise" with you. That was the nice way of suggesting your graphic was not all that valid. If you feel I was responding incorrectly, I am sorry. 18Z GFS tracking N with every other trend.

Ahh so you question the graphic? So why is that wrong and the surface one correct? IF that is what you are saying. Just wondering is all.

Dude btw keep in mind it is the 18z runs.

[on_wx]

Thanks

Hey, that map has Sarnia in 15-30cm of snow

[snowstormcanuck]

Hey, that map has Sarnia in 15-30cm of snow

I think that's due to LES on the backside but don't quote me.

[snowstormcanuck]

would i be correct in assuming that if the gfs wasnt closing that 500 at 48 there would be a much better possibility of a full on phase with the vortex??

That closed contour at 500 allows the sfc low to track from Allentown, PA NNW to Watertown, NY between 72 and 78 hours, giving me here in Toronto accumulating snow Sunday evening.

You probably want the same thing to happen, just everything shifted 200 miles south.

[JoMo]

Ahh so you question the graphic? So why is that wrong and the surface one correct? IF that is what you are saying. Just wondering is all.

Dude btw keep in mind it is the 18z runs.

Run times don't mean much. 6-18z been beating the GFS 00z

[baroclinic_instability]

Ahh so you question the graphic? So why is that wrong and the surface one correct? IF that is what you are saying. Just wondering is all.

Dude btw keep in mind it is the 18z runs.

This common belief that 18z or 6z off hour runs are always crap is s horrible misconception.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

That closed contour at 500 allows the sfc low to track from Allentown, PA NNW to Watertown, NY between 72 and 78 hours, giving me here in Toronto accumulating snow Sunday evening.

You probably want the same thing to happen, just everything shifted 200 miles south.

out to hour 72. Looks like Toronto sees snow while Ottawa/Montreal see rain.

[snowstormcanuck]

out to hour 72. Looks like Toronto sees snow while Ottawa/Montreal see rain.

Notoriously bad record here when it comes to rain to snow events, but I'll take a couple of sloppy inches as a consolation prize. 18z GFS, at least wrt to secondary storm, has trended pretty hard towards the 12z EURO.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Notoriously bad record here when it comes to rain to snow events, but I'll take a couple of sloppy inches as a consolation prize. 18z GFS, at least wrt to secondary storm, has trended pretty hard towards the 12z EURO.

I think it may soon be time to throw in the towel for this storm. Maybe next time.

Funny that people watching TWN this evening likely think a big storm is coming.

[Harry]

This common belief that 18z or 6z off hour runs are always crap is s horrible misconception.

Do you know why there is that belief?

[snowstormcanuck]

I think it may soon be time to throw in the towel for this storm. Maybe next time.

Funny that people watching TWN this evening likely think a big storm is coming.

I know it sounds trite, but I wouldn't throw in the towel yet. Give it until 12z tomorrow when all the associated energy is onshore.

[baroclinic_instability]

Do you know why there is that belief?

Yes I do. As for our individual storm thoughts, we have laid them out and discussed them. No bother continuing. I feel I am right, you feel you are. I guess we can wait and see. Seems many NWS offices seem to agree with me though, and I am rather confident in my thoughts.

Model guidance can be ignored at times and thrown out for seemingly being silly, but it would not be a good decision at this time given what I have discussed. There are times when model changes are actually valid.