csnavywx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 So that EC ENS panel doesn't look a tad odd to anybody else? I don't have the advantage of the intermediate frames, but that would suggest an ESE track from Iowa to L. Erie. Having a hard time biting on that. So much flopping going on it's probably better to use a conceptual model at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The way this thing is trending, ominous is the word for parts of WI and southern/central MN with a large winter storm warning and potential blizzard warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Sure enough, a secondary low rides the APPS and provides a descent hit for Eastern Indiana and Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I like Harry but i'm not really clear with what he's trying to say there. Look at the position of that jet i posted and then the surface low? That surface low should not be anywhere near that position and or that far to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Look at the position of that jet i posted and then the surface low? That surface low should not be anywhere near that position and or that far to the NW. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Why? Since when does a surface low ride the TOP side of the jet? Look at the jet energy pouring into the southern plains as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 H5 looks so pretty but everything else is a jumbled mess. The initial "northern low" looks like it really throws a monkey wrench into what could have been a big Apps storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 nam has a low over wv It's an elongated low stretching from Michigan down to WV. Snow Depth through 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Baroclinic. Looking at the NAM alone 850 temps hover right around 0 for some of the storm. Would that indicate mixing issues or could they be overcome by the dynamic nature of the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 It's an elongated low stretching from Michigan down to WV. Snow Depth through 84 Northern KY gets more snow than I do. Beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 H5 looks like it is getting ripped apart or something. Like the energy closes off with a 175KT jet saying dig me dig me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Since when does a surface ride the TOP side of the jet? Look at the jet energy pouring into the southern plains as well. Look at the upper level jet coupling. Jet streams don't perform magic, but there are equations that describe the dynamics involved. Regardless, without delving deep into it, the active divergent portion of the jet stream here is on the eastern portion of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I'm pretty impressed with the NAM and Euro consensus, Frank is looking golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 It's an elongated low stretching from Michigan down to WV. Snow Depth through 84 other models, including last nights euro have indicated a secondary lp forming.....in this setup that would hardly be unusual with such a deep trough. It still looks strange to me that with such a massive deepening trough that goes negative tilt and hits the gulf coast, the only storm reflection is so far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Baroclinic. Looking at the NAM alone 850 temps hover right around 0 for some of the storm. Would that indicate mixing issues or could they be overcome by the dynamic nature of the storm? Where did you see 0C temps during the storm? It seems all snow for MN, very southeastern tip may see a brief sleet mix in early, but mostly all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 18znam.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 GGEM ens mean: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/cmcensemble/12zggemensemblep12048.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/cmcensemble/12zggemensemblep12060.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/cmcensemble/12zggemensemblep12072.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I like Harry but i'm not really clear with what he's trying to say there. The strength of the jet coming in on the back side could cause more trough amplification. I think Oceanwx said this earlier today...why do the models keep placing the low this far north when the best upper level divergence is located to the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 GGEM ens mean: http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12048.gif http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12060.gif http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12072.gif Similar to the Euro mean, but i'd put a lot more on the OPs and NAM at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The strength of the jet coming in on the back side could cause more trough amplification. I think Oceanwx said this earlier today...why do the models keep placing the low this far north when the best upper level divergence is located to the south? baroclinic is doing his best to explain why, it goes over my head. But i trust the NAM and Euro on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Baroclinic. Looking at the NAM alone 850 temps hover right around 0 for some of the storm. Would that indicate mixing issues or could they be overcome by the dynamic nature of the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 GGEM ens mean: http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12048.gif http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12060.gif http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12072.gif So both the euro and ggem ens have a low just south of michigan. So why is the NAM and euro going so far north! Energy needs to stay together and create a blockbuster instead of two decent storms. Has anyone ever seen a secondary form inland in the ohio valley? first time for everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Look at the upper level jet coupling. Jet streams don't perform magic, but there are equations that describe the dynamics involved. Regardless, without delving deep into it, the active divergent portion of the jet stream here is on the eastern portion of the trough. Who said it did perform magic? Regardless IF come storm time it looks like that the surface low will not be that far to the nw. Bet me on it. Not sure why we are even debating a 18z run and of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 other models, including last nights euro have indicated a secondary lp forming.....in this setup that would hardly be unusual with such a deep trough. It still looks strange to me that with such a massive deepening trough that goes negative tilt and hits the gulf coast, the only storm reflection is so far north. Yeah, I would agree with that. But so far this year, that hasn't really been the case. The 18z NAM did slow the entire system down some though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 x is surface low.... all that energy at the base of the trough apparently wasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 So both the euro and ggem ens have a low just south of michigan. So why is the NAM and euro going so far north! Energy needs to stay together and create a blockbuster instead of two decent storms. Has anyone ever seen a secondary form inland in the ohio valley? first time for everything I'd trust the OP over the ensembles here but that's just me. Please read Baroclinic's posts, he's doing a pretty good job providing explanation for the northern solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The strength of the jet coming in on the back side could cause more trough amplification. I think Oceanwx said this earlier today...why do the models keep placing the low this far north when the best upper level divergence is located to the south? I think its trying to do something with that weak jet that is out ahead of the system, the problem is as you stated though the best divergence is to the south, which is why we keep popping this secondary low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 x is surface low.... all that energy at the base of the trough apparently wasted I have a better time believing the surface low is in the wrong spot there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I have a better time believing the surface low is in the wrong spot there. i do too...but that's where it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 i do too...but that's where it is. Even with that scenario te bufkit is still showing rain, which Im not buying if this pans out. I dont see how when the 850's will be below zero and surface temps right around freezing. this is based on the 18z nam of course lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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