baroclinic_instability Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 more energy hanging back may not mean a damn thing... also that lobe coming around the vortex in canada looks a little more juiced I think you should be real careful at looking at upper level vorticity fields alone and coming to a conclusion regarding intensity of a system/upper level baroclinic wave as a lot is happening dynamically to produce those vorticity fields. In this case, prolly better looking at surface pressure maps with strong cyclogenesis such as this. Also, we are in the time frame (36+ hours) where differences are more likely the result of initial conditions...for the NAM...this is about as similar as it gets from one run to the next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 the trough looks like crap thru 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 ill give it another 24 hours till its well sampled, even tonight should be better sampled but its not looking good for many Including us? Apparently the new UKmet doesn't look too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 very similar to 12z at 850, slightly more elongated to the south, but the northern 850 is nearly identical 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarmelPoster Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 As a follower of this thread for the last 2 days, I am really disappointed about what is shaping up for Central IN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 60 hours has the low around Green Bay. lol Upper Lakes winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Including us? Apparently the new UKmet doesn't look too bad lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Last night the 0z NAM looked decent. Were the two energies phased then because todays runs look weaker and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 She's warming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 60 hours has the low around Green Bay. lol This shows how screwed up the nam is with the position of the surface low etc It could be off with the upper level feature such as that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 IWX AFD: LONG TERM SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE EASTERN US FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND REMAINS THE MAIN FOCUS...AND CAUSE FOR MANY HEADACHES AS MODELS REMAIN SEPARATED IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. PRIOR TO 18Z SAT...MODELS AGREE ON INITIAL UPPER SYSTEM AND SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT BEING NW OF THE FORECAST AREA SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NE IOWA. MAJORITY OF MODELS ALSO INDICATE A WEAKER SFC TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH AT THE SAME TIME. WHERE THE CONCERNS LIE WHETHER ANY PHASING OCCURS OF THE ENERGY...WHERE AND WHEN. FOR SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW 850 MB TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE 0 C. PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW. CONCERNS EXIST REGARDING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WITH RECENT COLD WEATHER AND SNOW PACK WHICH COULD KEEP TEMPS COLDER THAN FORECAST. THESE CONCERNS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING SNOW PACK IS NOT OVERLY DENSE IN MOST AREAS...WARMER HIGHS SHOULD OCCUR. NO CHANGES MADE TO SATURDAY GRIDS FOR THE MOMENT. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA WITH SAT NGT MORE WAA PRECIP AHEAD OF THE LOW AND THEN POTENTIAL FOR DEFORMATION/LAKE ENHANCEMENT BEHIND THE LOW ON SUNDAY. NAM12 WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE DEFORMATION/LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN PAST RUNS BUT 12Z RUN HAS PLACED EMPHASIS ON WAA VS DEFORMATION. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH 700 MB LOW WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVIER SNOW...ASSUMING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. WHAT REMAINS CONCERNING IS EVOLUTION OF THE MAIN SYSTEM AND THAT AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE OF WAA PRECIP WE END UP GETTING SPLIT WITH LIMITED DEFORMATION AND LAKE EFFECT BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THIS CONCERN IS ECHOED SOMEWHAT BY MODEL DISCUSSION FROM HPC. ONE WOULD HOPE THE MODELS WOULD HAVE BEEN LINED UP WITH THIS BUT SINCE THEY ARE NOT HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO RETAIN PREVIOUS GRIDS. WHILE WE APPEAR TO BE THE OUTLIER IN TERMS OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL...DO FEEL THAT THE CONCERN IS THERE...AS NOTED ABOVE...REGARDING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AND WEDGE OF WARMER AIR PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FEEL THAT BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP REMAINS SAT NGT WITH WAA PRECIP SO WILL INCREASE TO 70 POPS WITH SUNDAY POPS LEFT ALONE FOR NOW. MODELS DO AT LEAST AGREE ON ONE PART OF THE EXTENDED...THE SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. BY 06Z MONDAY...MODELS HINT AT 850 MB TEMPS FROM -14 TO -16 C. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER COLD PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS POSSIBLY FLIRT WITH ZERO. REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION COMES TRUE IN THE MODELS (NORTHERN LOW VS EAST COAST STORM) NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SETUP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED THREAT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD. WHILE LITTLE CONFIDENCE CAN BE GAINED FROM COARSER MED RANGE MODELS...HINTS OF ANOTHER LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION DO EXIST WHICH COULD RESULT IN POTENTIAL HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE EFFECT. OF CONCERN IN THIS SITUATION IS A FARTHER EAST SOLUTION OF THE LOW INTENSIFICATION COULD ALLOW FOR ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR ACROSS THE LAKES WHICH MAY REDUCE POTENTIAL. PREVIOUS GRIDS DEFINITELY REASONABLE AT THIS POINT WITH AT LEAST SOME SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED AS WE EDGE CLOSER TO THE EVENT. SHOULD BE RATHER WINDY ON SUNDAY POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD BLOW AROUND ANY SNOWFALL. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW SUNDAY TO COVER THIS. RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE IN BY TUES NGT/WEDS WHICH SHOULD CUT OFF THE BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT AND ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS. THIS MODERATION MAY BE HAMPERED BY REFRESHED SNOW BACK AND COLD BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT..HAVE UNDERCUT HPC GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDS NGT BY SEVERAL DEGREES AND SLIGHT CUT IN HIGHS THURSDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Upper Lakes winter. This thing will end up tracking into the UP yet. 66 hours the low is over Traverse City. By tomorrow, it should be in the UP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 She's warming up. she's also got a dry slot for ya on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 12z thru Monday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 She's warming up. I don't know. I'm going to board the Harry bus and enjoy myself until it crashes into a ravine sometime around 12z tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 screw the northern piece....i'm waiting for the secondary apps storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 screw the northern piece....i'm waiting for the secondary apps storm something is happening down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 12z thru Monday: WINTER CANCEL for cedar rapids! :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 screw the northern piece....i'm waiting for the secondary apps storm You may be waiting a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 screw the northern piece....i'm waiting for the secondary apps storm It'll be interesting to see where the NAM takes that low developing over VA at 72. Trough is going neg tilt already so off the coast seems unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I don't know. I'm going to board the Harry bus and enjoy myself until it crashes into a ravine sometime around 12z tomorrow morning. I'll be the driver for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I don't know. I'm going to board the Harry bus and enjoy myself until it crashes into a ravine sometime around 12z tomorrow morning. I like Harry but i'm not really clear with what he's trying to say there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 It'll be interesting to see where the NAM takes that low developing over VA at 72. Trough is going neg tilt already so off the coast seems unlikely. it looks to cut off a 500 fairly south as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TruePatriot Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 She's warming up. Maybe for you. For WI and MN this is going to rock. Lesson for this storm is that models suck when it comes to phasing solutions. Sometimes they get it right (GFS nailed the October bomb way before EURO), but sometimes they are dead wrong. Small discrepancies in timing and features have a huge impact on phasing solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 screw the northern piece....i'm waiting for the secondary apps storm there she is Buckeye lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 You may be waiting a long time. nam has a low over wv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 nam has a low over wv No we gotta hope that happens and rides the apps and bombs out! fun stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 there she is Buckeye lol not that i would trust the nam at this range and in this pattern....but....this is what we need. That first low to go way north, push the front thru and let the trough did like a sob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 nam has a low over wv The suspense continues.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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