mnweather Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I'm sure just about everyone except for mnweather would. I am south of I Falls so I would disagree as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 In true Aleking fashion, early call for LAF: 1-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 In true Aleking fashion, early call for LAF: 1-8" I haven't busted one of those out yet this year. I'll make my first call tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 Better snowstorm for Streamwood, tonights clipper or Sat/Sun? 3.6" is the total to beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 It actually doesn't go that far to the west of us. In fact, before the 6z runs today, ALL of the reputable models showed the storm staying just to our S & E. Now, the 12z EURO/NAM take the sfc center right over us. So it would only take a small adjustment southerly to get us back in the game. And yes, the coastal transfer does seem to cut off the WAA, but *if* the EURO/NAM are correct, it'll at best be a very wet snow, and probably a rain/snow mix. So we're still "in the game" but we're going to have to stop the models trending further north, and probably need a bit of a shift to the south. Now, even if the EURO ended up being correct, we could still get some modest accumulating snow when the coastal revs up. But to turn this into a "big storm" we need those trends I mentioned above to come to fruition. Totally don't take this the wrong way, just a question. Given your location, wouldn't you be better located in the east coast region threads like upstate NY/Penn? Or do you just like central better? I wouldn't blame you if you did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I haven't busted one of those out yet this year. One of the better non-mets imo..... you don't let your inner weenie make your calls...kudo's! bit of a buzzkill at times tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 you think this storm might be sleety? It's probably cold rain to snow for you. I would bet you start around 40F and then free fall when the front moves through. Flash freeze? Let's hope you can keep enough moisture when the cold air comes in, to at least whiten up the ground. This way you'll have snow to melt next week when the Euro's blowtorch hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Totally don't take this the wrong way, just a question. Given your location, wouldn't you be better located in the east coast region threads like upstate NY/Penn? Or do you just like central better? I wouldn't blame you if you did Geographically, yes, but as far as our climates' are concerned, no. Upstate NY is a land of MECSes and Lake effect snow, which I get neither of (the only reason I mentioned the coastal this time is because the EURO depicts it as an inland storm. If it were a true coastal, I'd be too far west). I'd say my climate is much more similar to Detroit than it is Buffalo, even though Buffalo's a lot closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 looks like on the 15Z sref mean that it's further north like the nam/euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I am south of I Falls so I would disagree as well. Well in that case I disagree with the northern track and have decided I'm getting a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 looks like on the 15Z sref mean that it's further north like the nam/euro Doesn't surprise me given the information. A more phased solution will result in a farther N solution, and it seems a more phased system is where we are headed. This is a good case where the NAM (12z) can be given some credence. NAM does ok with stronger cyclogenesis. For once I am interested in the 18Z to see if it continues a trend N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 One of the better non-mets imo..... you don't let your inner weenie make your calls...kudo's! bit of a buzzkill at times tho I've gotten better with my calls but can think of a dozen non-mets better. As for this storm, i was liking a track from iowa through north central illinois to around detroit, but baroclinic's posts have me thinking about shifting that 50-100 miles north to more or less over chicago into southern lower michigan (and even that's probably too far south), which would mean, killer dryslut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 With the dynamics there anyone who is in close proximity to the 850mb low will have a shot at a quick change over to heavy, heavy snow and it can happen in the blink of an eye. Thus I think the anyone along and North of I 80 call is probably a good one to ride right now. Things appear to be getting narrowed down better, but energy is still not fully sampled. I'll be interested to see what the 00Z models do this evening. I do think I 80 is about the cut off though between good snows and a lot of slop and some light back end snows. But I've seen some systems very similar to this in the past where the column cools so rapidly heavy snow ends up surprising a few folks...and a lot more accumulates than called for. I'd say don't give up in Cedar Rapids/Rockford/Chicago/Detroit areas just yet. Quad Cities area like myself- I'm not so sure we don't end up with something halfway decent out of this (say 5-9"). Like I said, I'll be real interested in seeing the models tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I've gotten better with my calls but can think of a dozen non-mets better. As for this storm, i was liking a track from iowa through north central illinois to around detroit, but baroclinic's posts have me thinking about shifting that 50-100 miles north to more or less over chicago into southern lower michigan (and even that's probably too far south), which would mean, killer dryslut. Isn't that what I've been saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I've gotten better with my calls but can think of a dozen non-mets better. As for this storm, i was liking a track from iowa through north central illinois to around detroit, but baroclinic's post have me thinking about shifting that 50-100 miles north to more or less over chicago into southern lower michigan, which would mean, killer dryslut. Well there's the core posters on here that makes this forum what it is like hoosier, thunder, chicagowx, you, and more that I'm missing that really know your stuff and have the respect form a lot as non-mets.... I have never been more confused over a storm, but feel north is the only way to go with this, but think it's still going to surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 haha sorry im also going to respond to this since i live in the toronto region to. I feel as though southern ontario is in a the grey area between the North East and Mid West. I occasionally read the upstate NY/ PA but i just feel like the Midwest is the closest to my region. I feel as though I have much more in common with detroit-chicago than syracuse-Binghamton. And if i dared venture into the legit east coast forums i dont think i would survive haha e Totally don't take this the wrong way, just a question. Given your location, wouldn't you be better located in the east coast region threads like upstate NY/Penn? Or do you just like central better? I wouldn't blame you if you did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Is the fact that this first clipper is bringing warmer air north allowing the second storm to track further north or does the clipper really have nothing to do with this storm? If there is no clipper, I would assume the second storm would track further south due to colder air being in place. Thanks in advance for any input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 A few of these members are ridicu-wrapped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 With the dynamics there anyone who is in close proximity to the 850mb low will have a shot at a quick change over to heavy, heavy snow and it can happen in the blink of an eye. Thus I think the anyone along and North of I 80 call is probably a good one to ride right now. Things appear to be getting narrowed down better, but energy is still not fully sampled. I'll be interested to see what the 00Z models do this evening. I do think I 80 is about the cut off though between good snows and a lot of slop and some light back end snows. But I've seen some systems very similar to this in the past where the column cools so rapidly heavy snow ends up surprising a few folks...and a lot more accumulates than called for. I'd say don't give up in Cedar Rapids/Rockford/Chicago/Detroit areas just yet. Quad Cities area like myself- I'm not so sure we don't end up with something halfway decent out of this (say 5-9"). Like I said, I'll be real interested in seeing the models tonight Yes, good point regarding deeper solutions. Deeper cyclogenesis results in more significant height falls/colder low levels so folks looking at thicknesses need to be careful since what look like rain/snow or rain cold be heavy snow. Happens a lot with deep solutions owing to dynamic height falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 haha sorry im also going to respond to this since i live in the toronto region to. I feel as though southern ontario is in a the grey area between the North East and Mid West. I occasionally read the upstate NY/ PA but i just feel like the Midwest is the closest to my region. I feel as though I have much more in common with detroit-chicago than syracuse-Binghamton. And if i dared venture into the legit east coast forums i dont think i would survive haha e Haha, I don't blame you. And just so you guys know, I meant no harm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Don't see any huge differences at H5 through 36. Maybe a little more spread out with the height contours around the s/w, but that doesn't seem to be having any huge effects with the sfc depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Don't see any huge difference at H5 through 36. Maybe a little more spread out with the height contours around the s/w, but that doesn't seem to having any huge effects with the sfc depiction. Looks like it's staying the course to me. By 42 it's maybe a hair south of 12 at 850 and slightly stronger with the southern 850, all and all very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 We are getting to the point with some solutions where there is the outside shot of localized blizzard potential. 12Z NAM had potential for 45+ wind gusts to mix down with the extreme cold air advection and strong low level wind shear enhancing the mixing process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Don't see any huge differences at H5 through 36. Maybe a little more spread out with the height contours around the s/w, but that doesn't seem to be having any huge effects with the sfc depiction. only thing im noticing is there's more energy straggling behind in the northwest.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 more energy hanging back may not mean a damn thing... also that lobe coming around the vortex in canada looks a little more juiced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 only thing im noticing is there's more energy straggling behind in the northwest.... I guess you're thinking that'll cause the trough to dig more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Pretty terrible for most everyone through 51 (Unless you live in Minnesota and northern Wisconsin) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I guess you're thinking that'll cause the trough to dig more? well i don't know how much 'thinking' is involved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 It's funny how this storm is transitioning towards a cold fropa for a lot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 60 hours has the low around Green Bay. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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