A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I was thinking that 2-4" might have been a bit on the low side; 10 though is probably on the high side. There certainly will be 10" potential for someone with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The 2-4 is for today's storm, and 6-10 is for Saturday's storm. Probably 6 closer to the IL/WI border, 10 up here, considering what there wording was.: THE MOST LIKELY TRACK NOW APPEARS TO FAVOR HEAVY SNOW GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINERAL POINT TO MADISON...BEAVER DAM...AND SHEBOYGAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 This may be the most satisfying storm ever. Go NW trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 [weenie]Didn't the UKMET handle the 12/24/09 storm pretty well?[/weenie] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 There certainly will be 10" potential for someone with this system. I'm going with 6-12" for International Falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The 2-4 is for today's storm, and 6-10 is for Saturday's storm. Probably 6 closer to the IL/WI border, 10 up here, considering what there wording was.: THE MOST LIKELY TRACK NOW APPEARS TO FAVOR HEAVY SNOW GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINERAL POINT TO MADISON...BEAVER DAM...AND SHEBOYGAN. I was referring to the 2-4" predicted for Saturday and Sat night in Milwaukee for the previous period. Even 6 inches is substantially greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 We have the UKMET & JMA vs the GFS, NAM, EURO, GEM, MM5, WRF and even the COAMPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 We have the UKMET & JMA vs the GFS, NAM, EURO, GEM, MM5, WRF and even the COAMPS Maybe it'll end up so far NW we will miss even some of the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 This may be the most satisfying storm ever. Go NW trend! I tend to think that there wasnt really a NW trend. I just think two energies are splitting up one going north and the other going south. Who knows where it wouldve tracked if it all stayed together (who knows if it will not). While the euro 5 days ago had this thing more SE, there really hasnt been a trend NW. The models were just confused on what low will be dominant. I could be wrong of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 Maybe it'll end up so far NW we will miss even some of the rain. Do us a favor, stop posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I'm going with 6-12" for International Falls. nah-madison to mke look good to go. Also, remember this exchange yesterday when things were way south... Madtown said: 8-12 for wisco. and you said: It seems there is a lot of IMBYism going on with the model runs. I do agree it'll probably end up further north than the GFS is showing, but I think those expecting a return to the far northern solutions are probably going to be pretty disappointed EDIT: oh and this Do us a favor, stop posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 There certainly will be 10" potential for someone with this system. Agree. Given the extent/duration of forcing and decent ratios, my early thoughts are a band of 10-15" or so, probably near/north of I-80. Greater amount of uncertainty than usual though so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Do us a favor, stop posting. So you disagree with my call for northern MN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Agree. Given the extent/duration of forcing and decent ratios, my early thoughts are a band of 10-15" or so, probably near/north of I-80. Greater amount of uncertainty than usual though so who knows. typo? I mean i think i see a decent snow as well but wow man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 nah-madison to mke look good to go. Also, remember this exchange yesterday when things were way south... Madtown said: and you said: EDIT: oh and this I do agree that parts of Wisconsin look pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 i just realized, so what happened to the central va low the euro popped at 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Some other brief considerations to make. The latest GFS update came out in July, and testing by NCEP showed it had a tendency to underestimate upper tropospheric jets. NCEP has a link to it somewhere, but I don't remember where it is. UCAR has a nice summation on NCEP's testing if you have a COMET registration. "Upper tropospheric jet streaks are too weak". http://www.meted.uca...pl_20100728.htm I have indeed seen this manifest itself more than once previous and a weaker upper level jet stream will have consequences regarding cyclogenesis. Indeed by 60 hours the NAM has much stronger 200-250 hpa jet stream than the GFS, and if all else were equal, stronger curved jets will result in larger amounts of jet stream divergence and stronger cyclogenesis. It is typical than stronger and deeper cyclones track a rad bit farther N and slower, so keep that in mind. And this system is hauling some serious beef...possibly in excess of 210 mph. Impressive stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 typo? I mean i think i see a decent snow as well but wow man. It could end up a fair amount north of I-80 (by that I mean excluding I-80) but I'm not sold on that yet. So while the exact placement is up in the air, I don't really think I'm going out on a limb by saying amounts over 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 here's the 12Z GGEM 60 & 72 for those that can't stand to look at those environment canada images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 here's the 12Z GGEM 60 & 72 for those that can't stand to look at those environment canada images it's odd the way some of these models are keeping 850s cold so far south and east of the low track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 here's the 12Z GGEM 60 & 72 for those that can't stand to look at those environment canada images Weird how at 120 the heavier precip is so far north with a weaker storm and the next frame the low is stronger and it's alot closer to the low. Maybe that makes sense and Ive lost my mind .I ran out of aleve. Running to the store Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 It could end up a fair amount north of I-80 (by that I mean excluding I-80) but I'm not sold on that yet. So while the exact placement is up in the air, I don't really think I'm going out on a limb by saying amounts over 10". At this point I think it would be fair to say somewhere between Chicago and Milwaukee, points west of those cities, and extending 60 miles either direction have the best chance of seeing heavy snows. Let's say, from Champaign to Sheboygan and points west across Illinois and Wisconsin. No one can be confident where in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 So you disagree with my call for northern MN? I'm sure just about everyone except for mnweather would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Milwaukee has just issued winter storm watches here already for the entire viewing area. Its not the whole viewing area, mitty. MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE- WASHINGTON-DANE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...BERLIN...FOND DU LAC... SHEBOYGAN...BARABOO...PORTAGE...WISCONSIN DELLS...BEAVER DAM... WEST BEND...MADISON DODGEVILLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I'm sure just about everyone except for mnweather would. Better snowstorm for Streamwood, tonights clipper or Sat/Sun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 it's odd the way some of these models are keeping 850s cold so far south and east of the low track It's probably just because there isn't a large reservoir of warm air in the southern US right now. Since this storm doesn't come up from the south, it doesn't have a chance to advect a lot of warm air northward. Also, it occludes fast, so what warm air there is gets shoved east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Its not the whole viewing area, mitty. MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE- WASHINGTON-DANE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...BERLIN...FOND DU LAC... SHEBOYGAN...BARABOO...PORTAGE...WISCONSIN DELLS...BEAVER DAM... WEST BEND...MADISON DODGEVILLE I can see how he made the mistake, the Winter weather advisories still dominated the area on the National Weather Service map. I might have made the same mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 It's probably just because there isn't a large reservoir of warm air in the southern US right now. Since this storm doesn't come up from the south, it doesn't have a chance to advect a lot of warm air northward. Also, it occludes fast, so what warm air there is gets shoved east. you think this storm might be sleety? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Hey Snowstormcanuk, could you help me figure a few things out. and sorry if this sounds like im just looking at my area, im trying not to. But im a bit confused when it comes to this storm system. the models that have been posted show the storm going well to the west, however, how are we still in the snow chances? I saw your post last night saying it was weird, is it because of the possible transfer to an inland/coastal storm? It actually doesn't go that far to the west of us. In fact, before the 6z runs today, ALL of the reputable models showed the storm staying just to our S & E. Now, the 12z EURO/NAM take the sfc center right over us. So it would only take a small adjustment southerly to get us back in the game. And yes, the coastal transfer does seem to cut off the WAA, but *if* the EURO/NAM are correct, it'll at best be a very wet snow, and probably a rain/snow mix. So we're still "in the game" but we're going to have to stop the models trending further north, and probably need a bit of a shift to the south. Now, even if the EURO ended up being correct, we could still get some modest accumulating snow when the coastal revs up. But to turn this into a "big storm" we need those trends I mentioned above to come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I can see how he made the mistake, the Winter weather advisories still dominated the area on the National Weather Service map. I might have made the same mistake. Agree.... But he is still our metfan jr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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