baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I will settle on a track maybe 20-30 miles south along the Iowa/MN/WI/ILL border. SREF/NAM are in good agreement with that and it matches current trends. Either way, this storm will be fun to watch for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I will settle on a track maybe 20-30 miles south along the Iowa/MN/WI/ILL border. SREF/NAM are in good agreement with that and it matches current trends. Either way, this storm will be fun to watch for everyone. There seems to be pretty good agreement here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Maybe it's just me, but I continue to see the GGEM shafting far southeast Wisconsin. If that's true, we'll probably get less snow than those in the Ohio Valley. That better be a mistake. It seems like we get a few hours of backend snows, while everyone N, W, E, and many S get a nice fulfilling snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 reguardless, N IN looks to get hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 reguardless, N IN looks to get hit I'll take my 4.25 and wow, major inland penetration there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 All I know is that having winter storm advisories to my nw and e are driving me nuts! I hope this pans out in some form or another for Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 That's a big dry slot there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I'll take my 4.25 and wow, major inland penetration there. Inland band looks a bit oddly placed to me, but that could be the weenie inme talking, but seems a tad too far west for what I have seen in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 towel is thrown in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 That's a big dry slot there pretty much going to kill my chances at meaningful snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I made a map earlier for my blog. Boooooo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 18z NAM looks prime, hour 24-36 is a down right blizzard here if that verifies. Looks like we get briefly dry slotted as the low passes 150-200 or so miles to my south tonight, before things really start cranking around the morning hours. It's basically a bulls eye for Mankato and points northeast on this run. Blizzard Warning issued here as expected. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED AND REPLACED WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING. * TIMING...SIGNIFICANT SNOW BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND LASTING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. * MAIN IMPACT...6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. * OTHER IMPACTS...A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS BELOW ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY...AND WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN COUNTRY. WIND CHILLS WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND 30 BELOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 towel is thrown in here Don't know why you are throwing in the towel, still going to get some meaningful fluffy deformation zone snow on the back end with some good wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 If the NAM is right, Skilling and I bust by 5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 well pittsburgh has issued a winter storm watch. this entire setup is baffling to me. ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHMONDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHMONDAY EVENING.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THEWATCH AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGETO ALL SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOPSUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. THIS WILL BRINGBLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AS WELL AS QUITE COLD WIND CHILLS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 nam is quite a bit further SW at the Upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 rather large difference in the 18z NAM at 12z sunday 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 rather large difference in the NAM at 12z sunday Where have you been? consolation prize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 rather large difference in the NAM at 12z sunday yeah... very large difference... enough to make the Bears game look interesting should the NAM verify... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 There she blows. Looks right on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 well pittsburgh has issued a winter storm watch. this entire setup is baffling to me. ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHMONDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHMONDAY EVENING.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THEWATCH AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGETO ALL SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOPSUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. THIS WILL BRINGBLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AS WELL AS QUITE COLD WIND CHILLS. Must be from LES? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Northern Indiana WSW: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 331 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2010 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... .LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. WHILE DETAILS ON THE EXACT TRACK REMAIN QUESTIONABLE...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...ENHANCED BY THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATCH AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MONDAY. IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW MAY FALL. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...CAUSING NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN OUTLYING AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 FXUS63 KMKX 102024 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 224 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2010 .TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR THE IMPENDING WINTER STORM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DID NOT COME INTO A REASONABLY TIGHT CONSENSUS...AND THIS IS PRETTY UNUSUAL GIVEN THE SHORT WINDOW UNTIL THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. FOCUS OFTEN IS ON THE INCREMENTAL SFC LOW POSITIONS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS. THIS IS USED AS A ROUGH GUIDE AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. A TRACK ACROSS CHICAGO USUALLY MEANS ALL BUT OUR SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE CWA WILL SEE APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THREE TO FOUR DAYS AGO...THE MODELS HAD A STORM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY... ESSENTIALLY MISSING US. THEN 36 HOURS AGO MANY OF THE MODELS SHIFTED...RATHER JUMPED...FAR NORTH...TAKING THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THAT MEANT MORE OF WET/MIXY WINTER EVENT FOR US. THE SHIFT NORTH ISN/T UNUSUAL...THE DEGREE OF THE JUMP WAS. THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH NOW. THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ALWAYS HAD A SOLUTION SOUTH OF WISCONSIN.. ACTUALLY SOUTH OF CHICAGO. THE 12Z NAM AND THE 00Z ECMWF HAVE A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF OUR CWA...NOT FAVORABLE FOR SNOW. THE 12Z GFS SHIFTED SOUTH...MOVING IT ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER WITH THE ENSEMBLE GFS SHOWING A MAJORITY OF MEMBERS OVER CHICAGO. THAT/S TROUBLESOME AND MEANS A COLDER AND SNOWIER SOLUTION THAN WHAT WE HAD. THE 12Z ECMWF CAME IN AND IS ACTUALLY JUST SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER NOW. MORE TROUBLE. LOOKING AT THE THERMAL PROFILE AND THE AMOUNT OF QPF EXPECTED...THAT COULD BRING WARNING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AREA. GIVEN THE VARIED SOLUTIONS OUT THERE...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR OUR TWO NRN ROW OF COUNTIES...MINUS OZAUKEE AND WASHINGTON. KEEP THE WATCH AND ACTUALLY EXPAND IT A BIT. NEED TO SEE MORE CONSENSUS ON A SOUTHERN SOLUTION BEFORE THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXPAND THE WARNING. IN FACT...THE NAM/S NORTHERN SOLUTION MAY END UP BEING RIGHT AND THIS WOULD MAKE THIS FORECAST A BIG GOOSE EGG. WE MAY SEE WINTER STORM WARNING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE EXTREME WIND AND BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED...THUS THE EXPANSION OF THE WATCH TO THE WI/IL BORDER. THE SOUTHERN SHIFT MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE BEHAVIOR OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE 500 AND 700MB LOWS ARE ALL VERY SOUTH...CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN SOME CASES...OF THE SFC AND H8 LOW CENTERS AND THIS IS RATHER INVERTED FROM TYPICAL SYNOPTIC ORIENTATION. SO...TO SEE THE LOWER LEVELS PULLED/FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVELS...MAKES MORE SENSE. incredible...guess the towel is back in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Here is the 12z vs 18 nam 24 hr precip after 00z sunday through 00z monday all would be snow over MI and IL notice the heaveist precip is more south in MI on the 18z 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 The euro ensembles did slide a bit south. Per them the dryslot never makes it to downtown Chicago and or north of i80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 from the sounds it, they are thinking more system. Without any support since im still a novice when it comes to models I would have to say that this will likely be downgraded to winter weather advisory for a couple inches of snow with strong winds causing visibility issues? and the counties that have the chance to get in on the LES will likely be upgraded to LES advisories/warnings? Must be from LES? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 The euro ensembles did slide a bit south. Per them the dryslot never makes it to downtown Chicago and or north of i80. I appreciate the pep talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 PM CSTSUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6PM CST SUNDAY. THIS IS AN UPGRADE TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH. * TIMING...A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY TOWARD LATE MORNING. THE MIXTURE WILL THEN CHANGE TO SNOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE WINDS INCREASE. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ABOUT 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY IN FOND DU LAC AND WESTERN SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES...WITH 7 TO 10 INCHES ELSEWHERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Must be from LES? It is rare to get a watch for LES here...actually never happens. I think they are banking on a quick 2-4 burst after our changeover early sunday afternoon, then additional LES and bitter cold and high winds. If you add that all together we could get 4-8 inches, all be it over a 36 to 48 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 from the sounds it, they are thinking more system. Without any support since im still a novice when it comes to models I would have to say that this will likely be downgraded to winter weather advisory for a couple inches of snow with strong winds causing visibility issues? and the counties that have the chance to get in on the LES will likely be upgraded to LES advisories/warnings? I believe that what normally would be a LES warning will turn into a WS warning in the presence of other factors such as wind, blowing/drifting, ice, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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