buckeye Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 well he was spot on... ...someone had to say it, everytime i read the posts addressing 'me and daddy' i kinda shivered. maybe use 'longlegs' instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 euro looks a lot closer to the ukie now at 500. still about 100 miles north with the closed contour interesting to hear. the ukie was very good for those west of an ottawa-buffalo line.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 All frozen precip or do i break out the umbrellas... That is a lot of precip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Buckeye That sounds even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 All frozen precip or do i break out the umbrellas... That is a lot of precip! Looks pretty much mostly, Snow. Lot of Cold air with this guy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 well he was spot on... ...someone had to say it, everytime i read the posts addressing 'me and daddy' i kinda shivered. maybe use 'longlegs' instead Oh yeah, nothing at all suggestive there either. Long legs and I are going to get nailed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 66hrs: 988MB SLP just north of Toronto. 72hrs: 984Mb SLP just north of the VT border. CStorm-izzle i know you are deadly accurate... just wanted to clarify...at 72 hours, its defintely north of vermont, and not north of the northern part of new york state next to it? that eastward distance could make a big difference for ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Oh yeah, nothing at all suggestive there either. Long legs and I are going to get nailed! lol touche'..... maybe initials instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 CStorm-izzle i know you are deadly accurate... just wanted to clarify...at 72 hours, its defintely north of vermont, and not north of the northern part of new york state next to it? that eastward distance could make a big difference for ottawa. It's out over at PSU. The big red L is smack dab over Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Oh yeah, nothing at all suggestive there either. Long legs and I are going to get nailed! If I knew I could get this kind of chat here, I wouldn't be flippin between windows every 15 minutes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Intense looking dryslot on the Euro, looks like an advisory level hit for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Both are a bit south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 It's out over at PSU. The big red L is smack dab over Montreal. ok cool well its a start, its defintely trended towards the ukie a bit, which i think was a big hit for you it appeared seem roughly from southern lake erie to montreal a definite shift south and east, good news for toronto, and perhaps something brewing for ottawa. i may have to travel to my parents place in ottawa if the trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Both are a bit south The dry slot signal for Chicago is pretty strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 She has joined the GFS/UK/GGEM etc camp!! I enjoyed this mornings snow, but the sun is now melting it. And thanks to the 12z runs, Im not as disappointed as youd expect Oh if we could get a little more south, that would be WONDERFUL. As is still looking at several inches of snow per all models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Interesting prelim model discussion from the HPC MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1242 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2010 VALID DEC 10/1200 UTC THRU DEC 14/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING THE UKMET AND CANADIAN GLOBAL... ...LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD... PREFERENCE... 09Z SREF MEAN/00Z ECMWF... WITH SOME INPUT FROM THE 12Z NAM ESP NEAR THE SFC LOW... THE 12Z NAM/GFS AND 00Z ECMWF FORM A VARIED CONSENSUS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING THROUGH IA/IL/WI SATURDAY... THOUGH THE 12Z GFS DOES TRAIL A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF THE NAM/ECMWF AND IS SEVERAL MB DEEPER. ALL CLUSTER NEAR THE 09Z SREF MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY SUNDAY BUT THE 12Z GEFS MEAN HAS PUSHED FARTHER SOUTH. THE 12Z UKMET/CANADIAN ARE WELL SOUTH OVER CENTRAL IN/OH AND ARE RULED LOW PROBABILITY OUTLIERS. BY 12Z/13... THE OPERATIONAL MODELS FOCUS LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE SREF MEAN AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT VARIES FROM RUN TO RUN. So they're definitely, at least tentatively, going with the farthest north suite of models, but I wonder if the 12z EURO's shift south will sway their thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Hmm..I dont know if Ive ever seen this. DTX actually changed Sundays wording at their 11am forecast update. Dont think Ive EVER seen them change a 4th period forecast wording in between the "main" 4am and 4pm forecast updates. 4am today: SUNDAY...WINDY. SNOW LIKELY. LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. HIGHS 24 TO 28...WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND ZERO. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH LATE. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 11am today SUNDAY...BRISK. SNOW LIKELY. ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. HIGHS 26 TO 30. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH LATE. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Interesting prelim model discussion from the HPC MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1242 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2010 VALID DEC 10/1200 UTC THRU DEC 14/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING THE UKMET AND CANADIAN GLOBAL... ...LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD... PREFERENCE... 09Z SREF MEAN/00Z ECMWF... WITH SOME INPUT FROM THE 12Z NAM ESP NEAR THE SFC LOW... THE 12Z NAM/GFS AND 00Z ECMWF FORM A VARIED CONSENSUS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING THROUGH IA/IL/WI SATURDAY... THOUGH THE 12Z GFS DOES TRAIL A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF THE NAM/ECMWF AND IS SEVERAL MB DEEPER. ALL CLUSTER NEAR THE 09Z SREF MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY SUNDAY BUT THE 12Z GEFS MEAN HAS PUSHED FARTHER SOUTH. THE 12Z UKMET/CANADIAN ARE WELL SOUTH OVER CENTRAL IN/OH AND ARE RULED LOW PROBABILITY OUTLIERS. BY 12Z/13... THE OPERATIONAL MODELS FOCUS LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE SREF MEAN AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT VARIES FROM RUN TO RUN. So they're definitely, at least tentatively, going with the farthest north suite of models, but I wonder if the 12z EURO's shift south will sway their thinking. I suspect it will change with the new euro out and following the rest. Granted with them it is hard to say sometimes. Too many still caught up in the ole nw trend stuff as we even saw here recently. Hopefully ( have my doubts though ) this puts that to bed once and for all. As said these are not the same models we had when the nw trend was popular.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I'm in a WSW now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Now that we're post Euro, I'm going to ride my 2-5 call with a low tracking just north of Chicago. Amounts dependant on timing of switchover and defo band placement.....favoring northwest areas for better defo band accums. Good luck out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Interesting prelim model discussion from the HPC MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1242 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2010 VALID DEC 10/1200 UTC THRU DEC 14/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING THE UKMET AND CANADIAN GLOBAL... ...LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD... PREFERENCE... 09Z SREF MEAN/00Z ECMWF... WITH SOME INPUT FROM THE 12Z NAM ESP NEAR THE SFC LOW... THE 12Z NAM/GFS AND 00Z ECMWF FORM A VARIED CONSENSUS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING THROUGH IA/IL/WI SATURDAY... THOUGH THE 12Z GFS DOES TRAIL A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF THE NAM/ECMWF AND IS SEVERAL MB DEEPER. ALL CLUSTER NEAR THE 09Z SREF MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY SUNDAY BUT THE 12Z GEFS MEAN HAS PUSHED FARTHER SOUTH. THE 12Z UKMET/CANADIAN ARE WELL SOUTH OVER CENTRAL IN/OH AND ARE RULED LOW PROBABILITY OUTLIERS. BY 12Z/13... THE OPERATIONAL MODELS FOCUS LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE SREF MEAN AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT VARIES FROM RUN TO RUN. So they're definitely, at least tentatively, going with the farthest north suite of models, but I wonder if the 12z EURO's shift south will sway their thinking. Definitely an interesting storm, and their throughts are with mine. Even as we speak surface analysis is in lock-step with NAM. Look at SD and the South flow/WAA which will push the front farther N and result in the farther N track/deeper cyclone. Compare to GFS winds at 18Z. http://rap.ucar.edu/...e=-1&duration=0 GFS is already off with the surface low 6 hrs in...too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 Skilling going with 5"...with possible lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 RUC is generally a pile of garbage but it keeps updating with current trends which takes the low farther N, deeper, and slower ala NAM and SREF. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RUC&grid=255&model_yyyy=2010&model_mm=12&model_dd=10&model_init_hh=17&fhour=09¶meter=WSPD&level=10&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 RUC is generally a pile of garbage but it keeps updating with current trends which takes the low farther N, deeper, and slower ala NAM and SREF. http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false It is also sharper with the trough....I guess for me. the placements of the the UL lows in two days will be more important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 It is also sharper with the trough....I guess for me. the placements of the the UL lows in two days will be more important. Well what I have said a lot lately, the upper level low placement will be strongly dependent upon which model properly develops deep cyclogenesis early on as that will alter the track of the upper low. Hence why NAM is farther NW with everything. As a feedback process being even a tiny bit wrong early can throw the forecast pretty quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Skilling going with 5"...with possible lake enhancement. There goes Skilling stealing my calls again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 well he was spot on... ...someone had to say it, everytime i read the posts addressing 'me and daddy' i kinda shivered. maybe use 'longlegs' instead I was wondering if I was the only one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Debating between 1-3 and 2-4 for me. Given track uncertainty and exact positioning of deformation band, was tempted to lean lower but will go 2-4" as potential for combination of brief changeover prior to dryslot and then more snow wrapping around. The earlier thought of 10-15" up north might actually prove to be slightly conservative if trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Debating between 1-3 and 2-4 for me. Given track uncertainty and exact positioning of deformation band, was tempted to lean lower but will go 2-4" as potential for combination of brief changeover prior to dryslot and then more snow wrapping around. The earlier thought of 10-15" up north might actually prove to be slightly conservative if trends continue. I think 2-4" is a safe call.. Though I wouldn't be surprised at a few locations getting 5 or 6 by the end.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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