snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 During 84, 90, 96, 102hrs, .1-.25" falls per period. hmm...I'll assume it's still too warm at 84. Not bad still. Even if it only adds up to 3 or 4 inches, with the wind and cold it'll be quite the scene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoeWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 HAHA... Are you serious ECMWF o.O... REALLY ?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 HAHA... Are you serious ECMWF o.O... REALLY ?! See that sfc low position makes sense to me if the H5 s/w is in the process of ejecting out. But it's not. It's still digging beyond 72 hours, which makes me think the sfc low should be less wrapped up and maybe closer to Lk Erie at least. But what do I know? EURO > me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 What's the MM5 showing lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I have been a bit quiet with this storm with other issues to take care of, and I haven't been watching it as closely as other systems, but I will make a few comments. The UK seems plain ridiculous with the way it tanks the system so far south. From a standpoint of of the upper disturbance, it really isn't all that impressive of a PV Anomaly as it ejects into the plains, and considering it doesn't even phase the southern stream with the Polar Vortex, I just don't see that kind of solution possible. The northern solutions seem the most realistic to me since some sort of phasing seems necessary to develop a relatively strong low considering the initial southern stream upper wave is just not all that impressive. This is why we see either southern solutions or really northern solutions. I would have to bet on more northern solutions, and for me, CMC is solution of choice at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I'd normally be throwing in the towel by now but I'm making an exception. There's still a pretty good amount of spread and the best sampling has yet to occur. As others have said, we should get a better idea tomorrow. I seriously cannot blame you. I would not throw it in either. I believe a few are gonna be sitting back and scratching their heads either after the 00z runs or 12z at latest tomorrow. Thats me though and i do feel very certain of it too. Rare you hear me say that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The center appears to move just slightly north of east, so it's not like the classic NE moving storms. I would guess that means if the center tracks right over top you(or in this case me) there would be a greater than normal chance that the wrap around snow will get you after the dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I seriously cannot blame you. I would not throw it in either. I believe a few are gonna be sitting back and scratching their heads either after the 00z runs or 12z at latest tomorrow. Thats me though and i do feel very certain of it too. Rare you hear me say that too. If you're right you'll be a God around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I have been a bit quiet with this storm with other issues to take care of, and I haven't been watching it as closely as other systems, but I will make a few comments. The UK seems plain ridiculous with the way it tanks the system so far south. From a standpoint of of the upper disturbance, it really isn't all that impressive of a PV Anomaly as it ejects into the plains, and considering it doesn't even phase the southern stream with the Polar Vortex, I just don't see that kind of solution possible. The northern solutions seem the most realistic to me since some sort of phasing seems necessary to develop a relatively strong low considering the initial southern stream upper wave is just not all that impressive. This is why we see either southern solutions or really northern solutions. I would have to bet on more northern solutions, and for me, CMC is solution of choice at this time. Not sure if you looked at the cmc in depth, but is it warm? it goes almost over detroit but i dont see a dry slot on the maps. It almost looks like the 1st low dissapates and a secondary takes over in the ohio valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 FWIW...Skilling's RPM model takes the SLP from Central Iowa to Central Illinois to Northern Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 09z SREF upper level height fields predominantly show a northern stream phase with a stronger upper level cyclone which makes more sense to me. A few do suggest a stronger southern solution, but I don't find it a realistic solution for the reasons mentioned above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I have been a bit quiet with this storm with other issues to take care of, and I haven't been watching it as closely as other systems, but I will make a few comments. The UK seems plain ridiculous with the way it tanks the system so far south. From a standpoint of of the upper disturbance, it really isn't all that impressive of a PV Anomaly as it ejects into the plains, and considering it doesn't even phase the southern stream with the Polar Vortex, I just don't see that kind of solution possible. The northern solutions seem the most realistic to me since some sort of phasing seems necessary to develop a relatively strong low considering the initial southern stream upper wave is just not all that impressive. This is why we see either southern solutions or really northern solutions. I would have to bet on more northern solutions, and for me, CMC is solution of choice at this time. Thanks, the 12z CMC wasn't too far off from the HPCs thinking. FWIW...Skilling's RPM model takes the SLP from Central Iowa to Central Illinois to Northern Ohio. Also not far off. I think i'm going to ride with track just north of there for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 What is odd is that even the more Northern Solutions do not blow torch areas out ahead and even South of the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 snippet from the HPC model diag. disco. This is updated and they have knowledge of the 12z EURO but are preferring the 0z EURO. ...WAVE CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST DAY 2... PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY MORE DEVELOPED THAN THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM...CLOSER TO THE ECMWF RUN FROM 12Z/08. THE GFS CLUSTERS BETTER WITH THE NAM...THOUGH IS NOT AS INTENSE AND IS SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPRESSED. THE UKMET DIGS THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH THE GEM GLOBAL BETWEEN THE GFS AND UKMET. THE NEW ECMWF IS BACK TO ITS SOLUTION FROM YESTERDAY MORNING. THE OLD ECMWF IS AN ATTRACTIVE COMPROMISE FOR THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH FAIRLY ROBUST SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE 00Z ECENS MEAN AND 12Z GEFS MEAN. THE TRANSITION TO HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING JUST BEYOND THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD STILL SUPPORTS A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL SPLITTING OVER THIS REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Not sure if you looked at the cmc in depth, but is it warm? it goes almost over detroit but i dont see a dry slot on the maps There is definitely a dry slot in there as you would expect with such strong and deep cyclogenesis. CMC also has an impressive hybrid TROWAL/stretching deformation zone, more impressive than some of the other solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Do you think the forecast for the Milwaukee area is being conservative? Right now they say a likelihood of rain and snow on Saturday, with up to an inch of accumulation, and likely snow Sat night with 1 to 3 inches of accumulation. I think they're assuming the low will track near the WI/IL border. If it tracks about 60 to 100 miles to the south of that, couldn't the winds shift from a warmer easterly direction to more of a N or NE direction. Edit: to finish my question, in this situation, I would think we would get substantially more than 2-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I'm pulling out the weenie card, but the UKMET has been extremely accurate here lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 What's the MM5 showing lmao well since you asked....1004 low over extreme se WI. looks euroish. The brits and the japanese are partying alone on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoeWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Agreed. I am not jumping ship until after 00z Fri maybe even 12z for consistency sake. I am still leaning in NOGAPS 12z direction with the southerly solution. Fact of the matter is of the last 3 days its been the most consistent bringing a low through the Ohio R/I-64 corridor. ILN has a point as well though, historically speaking occluding systems this time of year tend to shoot N early. I take that back. I forgot to refresh the E-wall page NOGAPS shifted N towards the GFS solution this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 well since you asked....1004 low over extreme se WI. looks euroish. The brits and the japanese are partying alone on this one. Depends which MM5 you're talking about. The one here is extreme southeastern IA. WI gets drilled. http://aurora.aos.wisc.edu/current.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Warning Warning Warning this is a IMBY post. Have some plans this weekend, and thought we would first get nothing then get 2-4 then last night was thinking 4-6. Just caught up reading through the pages, and it looks like rain is a possible. Anyone want to give me a little heads up on what might happen here in good ol madtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Depends which MM5 you're talking about. The one here is extreme southeastern IA. WI gets drilled. http://aurora.aos.wi...u/current.shtml http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/loop/36km.slp.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Warning Warning Warning this is a IMBY post. Have some plans this weekend, and thought we would first get nothing then get 2-4 then last night was thinking 4-6. Just caught up reading through the pages, and it looks like rain is a possible. Anyone want to give me a little heads up on what might happen here in good ol madtown You're aren't going to get any hard answers or solid consensus. Just my opinion, but if you see rain, it won't be much and i personally think the low passes to your south and keeps you more or less all snow (and probably a solid amount). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I'm pulling out the weenie card, but the UKMET has been extremely accurate here lately i'd love to see the miracle coupe....but if you put aside all biases, I really don't see how you go against the euro at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 i will say this...the idea of a sustained brutal cold shot all next week just went down the crapper according the euro. +8 850s approaching indy late next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Milwaukee has just issued winter storm watches here already for the entire viewing area. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTH OF A PORT WASHINGTON TO PORTAGE LINE. AN ADDITIONAL 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THE SECOND STORM SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...SNOW WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE EVENING RUSH HOUR... AND MAY BE MODERATE OR HEAVY AT TIMES...ACCUMULATING ON ROADWAYS AND REDUCING VISIBILITIES. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POTENTIALLY SLICK CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE SECOND STORM...INCREASING NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON WEST-EAST ROADS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Milwaukee has just issued winter storm watches here already for the entire viewing area. Hopefully it will stick on the grass this time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 i'd love to see the miracle coupe....but if you put aside all biases, I really don't see how you go against the euro at this point. Oh i do. At THIS time range i do. Not saying the UK will be right either. Amazing the amount of systems that has been tracked ( even recently ) but yet a good number of people seem to be forgetting how the models did. I believe the answer is between them. Thus see the euro recent handling of such things as that system last weekend which the model had hitting here. I can't say it enough. We are NOT dealing with the same models we had in 2007-08 etc. All have seen huge updates to them. Well most of them have to my knowledge. Unsure about the UK/GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Milwaukee has just issued winter storm watches here already for the entire viewing area. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTH OF A PORT WASHINGTON TO PORTAGE LINE. AN ADDITIONAL 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THE SECOND STORM SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...SNOW WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE EVENING RUSH HOUR... AND MAY BE MODERATE OR HEAVY AT TIMES...ACCUMULATING ON ROADWAYS AND REDUCING VISIBILITIES. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POTENTIALLY SLICK CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE SECOND STORM...INCREASING NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON WEST-EAST ROADS. I was thinking that 2-4" might have been a bit on the low side; 10 though is probably on the high side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Hey Snowstormcanuk, could you help me figure a few things out. and sorry if this sounds like im just looking at my area, im trying not to. But im a bit confused when it comes to this storm system. the models that have been posted show the storm going well to the west, however, how are we still in the snow chances? I saw your post last night saying it was weird, is it because of the possible transfer to an inland/coastal storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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