Moneyman Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Do AFD people get the models early? According to MKX the Euro tracks through the forecast area, unless they meant the 0z euro from last night. Do they get them like an hour earlier maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 000 FXUS63 KMKX 101708 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1108 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2010 .UPDATE...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS IN TERMS OF OVERALL THINKING FOR THE WEEKEND WINTER STORM. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODEL TRACKS BRING THE SFC LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE STORM...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SOUTH AND EAST. THERE ARE STILL LARGE ENOUGH DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS IN THE SFC TRACK TO KEEP A FEELING OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS STORM. THE 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH THE SFC LOW NOW TRACKING ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER. THE MAJORITY OF THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE EVEN FURTHER SOUTH...KEEPING THE LOW SOUTH OF THE WI BORDER. THE CANADIAN AND UKMET STILL KEEP THE LOW SOUTH OF THE BORDER...SUGGESTING MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS SRN WI. MEANWHILE...THE NAM AND ECMWF TRACK THE LOW RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THOUGH ON A LARGE SCALE THESE DIFFERENCES ARE FAIRLY MINOR...THEY DO THROW A PRETTY BIG WRENCH IN POSSIBLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS SRN WI...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...SEEMS WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WILL BE MET ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...AND THE WATCH WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING LATER TODAY. STILL THINKING SUB WARNING SNOWFALL IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THINGS AS THIS STORM DEVELOPS...WITH A LARGER THAN NORMAL SPREAD IN MODEL TRACKS THIS CLOSE TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE STORM. Keep in mind that is with the 00z EURO as the 12z is not out yet.. I Strongly suspect the 12z will change that and thus join the GFS/GGEM/RGEM/UK etc and not the NAM. 12z euro starts in less then 15mins.. JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Do AFD people get the models early? According to MKX the Euro tracks through the forecast area, unless they meant the 0z euro from last night. Do they get them like an hour earlier maybe? no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 LOT is going to have their hands full this afternoon/evening. I think WWA headlines are in order but maybe i'm being a weenie. Yep, like I said last night, this one is a real headache for southern WI/northern IL areas...a ton of people could either see rain/mix and minimal snow or an all out major snowstorm depending on what models end up being correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Just to highlight the differences a day makes. The NAM has Grand Rapids (GRR) getting about 3" and the GFS is showing 15.4". Yesterday these number were < 2" and < 4" in respectively. The lake effect pushes Holland over 15" in the NAM. I am waiting to see where this really goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Local Mets saying around 3 inches for Indy on Sunday and more to the north. Muncie and Kokomo possibly 3-6 inches. I'd be more than happy with 2-4 more inches of powder blowing in the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Hard to bet against the SREF which hasn't budged for three successive runs. This storm is a real headache though, tough for offices to nail things down. HPC is apparently going strong on SREF /NAM/0Z EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Yep, like I said last night, this one is a real headache for southern WI/northern IL areas...a ton of people could either see rain/mix and minimal snow or an all out major snowstorm depending on what models end up being correct. Even the NAM drops 2-6 across the area with the GFS and GEM a bit more. Unless the Euro goes north of the NAM, i think we see a WWA either this afternoon or overnight, the combination of ZR, snow and quickly falling temps/flash freeze should warrant one at least across the northern tier or two of counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 dry slot of death Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Local Mets saying around 3 inches for Indy on Sunday and more to the north. Muncie and Kokomo possibly 3-6 inches. I'd be more than happy with 2-4 more inches of powder blowing in the wind. If they are saying those totals that far south then the must be looking at the euro or the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 dry slot of death The dry slut is my number one concern when it comes to avoiding boring weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 would be a nice band of snow looking at H7 VV's on the GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 What a difference an extra 20mb of AOA 0c column makes. What's 0.90" of all snow on the NAM is 0.85" of virtually all rain on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 dry slot of death Luckily that will be going through my area early in the morning, plus it shouldnt last but maybe 6 hours. Im holding out hope for decent wrap around with higher snow ratios here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 would be a nice band of snow looking at H7 VV's on the GEM Dont know much about the models but how accurate has the GGEM been 50 hours and in? I know the euro has been decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Has anyone looked into the wind threat with this, I dont know much about forecasting wind with inversions and all that jazz. Hoosier, you seem to do a great job predicting wind events, whats your take? I just noticed that the gfs shows sustatined 10m winds of 31 mph on Sunday-Monday. With the 850 windspeeds at or above 50-70kts, what kind of gust may we be looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Has anyone looked into the wind threat with this, I dont know much about forecasting wind with inversions and all that jazz. Hoosier, you seem to do a great job predicting wind events, whats your take? I just noticed that the gfs shows sustatined 10m winds of 31 mph on Sunday-Monday. With the 850 windspeeds at or above 50-70kts, what kind of gust may we be looking at? You have no location listed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Only posting this because somebody requested it JMA 48 JMA 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 12z ECMWF: 12hrs: 1004MB SLP in far N. Nebraska. 18hrs: 1008MN low from far S. Minnesota/SE. South Dakota down towards N. Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 12z ECMWF: 12hrs: 1004MB SLP in far N. Nebraska. 18hrs: 1008MN low from far S. Minnesota/SE. South Dakota down towards N. Kansas. 24hrs: 1004MB SLP in N. Iowa. Nice hot for MSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 24hrs: 1004MB SLP in N. Iowa. Nice hot for MSP. 30hrs: Sub 1004MB SLP in E. Iowa...west of QC. Nice hit from N. Iowa up towards MSP/LSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 24hrs: 1004MB SLP in N. Iowa. Nice hot for MSP. Hopefully not too hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 sounds like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 24hrs: 1004MB SLP in N. Iowa. Nice hot for MSP. toasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 24hrs: 1004MB SLP in N. Iowa. Nice hot for MSP. 30hrs: Sub 1004MB SLP in E. Iowa...west of QC. Nice hit from N. Iowa up towards MSP/LSE. Interesting movement there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 You have no location listed. Fixed, Sorry about that. I didnt even realize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 30hrs: Sub 1004MB SLP in E. Iowa...west of QC. Nice hit from N. Iowa up towards MSP/LSE. 36hrs: Sub 1004MB low centered in N. Illinois. Nice hit for parts of IA/MN/WI/IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 If the GFS/GEM/Ukie/Nogaps/RGEM end up right with a ESE trend, your reputation is not on the line. I read your blog and your a blessing to this community. I just want to get that out there, if I am totally off that is fine and I apologize for this assertion. You are pretty much our teacher here and well respected, exp after the way you handled yourself yesterday. with that said I hope the Jet can dig this thing south enough for me to get in the deformation zone, so I hope in this case you are wrong, carry on What he (Friv) said. I just recently registered on this site, but I've learned a lot from your posts on this storm so far. Thank you very much for your contributions. I also live in STL, so I am hoping for a more sourthern solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 36hrs: Sub 1004MB low centered in N. Illinois. Nice hit for parts of IA/MN/WI/IL. Unless I'm mistaken, that's definitely south of the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Unless I'm mistaken, that's definitely south of the 0z. your not mistaken. Stay Thirsty my Friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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