Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 Time to it up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Time to it up... 12z fim out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 oh my the backup RUC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Ruc Me, Ruc me hard, lol, Goodbye Horses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 If the GFS/GEM/Ukie/Nogaps/RGEM end up right with a ESE trend, your reputation is not on the line. I read your blog and your a blessing to this community. I just want to get that out there, if I am totally off that is fine and I apologize for this assertion. You are pretty much our teacher here and well respected, exp after the way you handled yourself yesterday. with that said I hope the Jet can dig this thing south enough for me to get in the deformation zone, so I hope in this case you are wrong, carry on Haha, thanks. Don't worry, not too worried about reputations, I am not like JB Also, we are all wrong at times. It is weather. IN this case though trends continue to show this being more intense and NAM like. Surface low in MT much deeper already than any models have. Worth considering here. Could be one of those events models are wrong all the way up to. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 LOL why the weenie talk when you use models to back it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Time to it up... Doesn't this model go out even further or one of them will you link me? I want to see the H5 low on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Time to it up... ofcourse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 12z fim out yet http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim&domain=236&run_time=10+Dec+2010+-+12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 Doesn't this model go out even further or one of them will you link me? I want to see the H5 low on this. http://ruc.noaa.gov/pig.cgi?13km_Backup+am+T15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 http://ruc.noaa.gov/...m_Backup+am+T15 How does this initialize? it's pressure falls and SLP maps don't look off from the current ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Haha, thanks. Don't worry, not too worried about reputations, I am not like JB Also, we are all wrong at times. It is weather. IN this case though trends continue to show this being more intense and NAM like. Surface low in MT much deeper already than any models have. Worth considering here. Could be one of those events models are wrong all the way up to. We shall see. I think it's been a great system to track for the first event on the new board. Bucking the traditional conceptual models and watching the NWP slowly come around to the idea has been fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 LOL why the weenie talk when you use models to back it up. Because it's the RUC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 What does NWS LSE do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I think it's been a great system to track for the first event on the new board. Bucking the traditional conceptual models and watching the NWP slowly come around to the idea has been fascinating. It's been really fun and I've learned a bunch reading this board...my only thing is I wish it hadn't happened the week before finals week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Once again Southern MN will be playing with p-type again..nothing new there. But a solid 6 inches looks pretty likely in my area, what's the difference between 6 and 12 inches when winds will be gusting to 45 mph? Some of the worst whiteouts and blizzards have came with 1-3 inches of snow out here. If we can some how get the track to drop a tad south then I would be right in the main axis of 8 inches or more..but just too close to comfort with low that skirting just south of the MN/IA border like most models show, nudging 850mb temps above 0 degrees Celsius.' Aberdeen puts out first Blizzard Warnings! I expect that pretty red to be put out by FSD and MPX this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 NAM is showing around 4-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 How does this initialize? it's pressure falls and SLP maps don't look off from the current ones. http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_backup/T15/+sa5_ppt+am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Daddy will be interesting to see how lse handles this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I haven't had a substantial mixed event that ended with snow and a cold blast yet in my life, so I'm pretty excited. The entire thing will be frozen precip anyways since even if it rains it will instantly freeze to the ground. GFS is saying we only get up to 33 °F at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Can anyone post what the 12z JMA does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Anyone wanna guess where the Euro ends up? I'll say somewhere between the 12z NAM and GFS, crossing over Kenosha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 000 FXUS63 KMKX 101708 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1108 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2010 .UPDATE...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS IN TERMS OF OVERALL THINKING FOR THE WEEKEND WINTER STORM. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODEL TRACKS BRING THE SFC LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE STORM...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SOUTH AND EAST. THERE ARE STILL LARGE ENOUGH DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS IN THE SFC TRACK TO KEEP A FEELING OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS STORM. THE 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH THE SFC LOW NOW TRACKING ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER. THE MAJORITY OF THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE EVEN FURTHER SOUTH...KEEPING THE LOW SOUTH OF THE WI BORDER. THE CANADIAN AND UKMET STILL KEEP THE LOW SOUTH OF THE BORDER...SUGGESTING MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS SRN WI. MEANWHILE...THE NAM AND ECMWF TRACK THE LOW RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THOUGH ON A LARGE SCALE THESE DIFFERENCES ARE FAIRLY MINOR...THEY DO THROW A PRETTY BIG WRENCH IN POSSIBLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS SRN WI...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...SEEMS WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WILL BE MET ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...AND THE WATCH WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING LATER TODAY. STILL THINKING SUB WARNING SNOWFALL IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THINGS AS THIS STORM DEVELOPS...WITH A LARGER THAN NORMAL SPREAD IN MODEL TRACKS THIS CLOSE TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Can anyone post what the 12z JMA does. im curious too since it was in the ukie camp...but it doesn't come out on accuwx til 2 or so....maybe someone has a different link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Anyone wanna guess where the Euro ends up? I'll say somewhere between the 12z NAM and GFS, crossing over Kenosha. lexington kentucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 First blizzard warning just went up. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/abr/ Interesting placement. Worth noting it is downwind of the Coteau des Prairies in westerly flow. Possibly may be thinking terrain enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I am gonna guess it rides Minn iowa border delivering for MSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 lexington kentucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I'm going to say the Euro moves a bit south, but probably not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Regardless of where the UL's are at 48 hours. the places getting the blizzard shouldn't be that far off the mark. the difference between the H5 end up somewhere around Evansville, Indiana instead of NE Indiana is a world of difference for me. is the difference between flurries and backside light snow with high ratios and nearly blizzard conditions with 1-2 inches blowing around. the models are still showing the jet digging very well. I find it interesting the SLP ends up on the NE side of the H5, 7, 8 lows on many models..which is fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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