snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Crappy PSU graphics, but it looks like the 12z GFS keeps the low south of the WI/IL line at 36. 6z at 42 had the low half way between MKE and GRB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 12Z GFS a tad south, also weaker, I find that difficult to believe. Possibly could be due to initial condition errors or it is simply a tad slower in initiating deep cyclogenesis which would result in a slightly farther S track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 12z GFS is also WAY slower compared to 6z and has more backside precip. Looks a lot like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 12Z GFS a tad south, also weaker, I find that difficult to believe. Possibly could be due to initial condition errors or it is simply a tad slower in initiating deep cyclogenesis which would result in a slightly farther S track. you're gonna love the ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Yes, it was January 14th, 1992. Pearson airport got 16 cm while downtown got 7 cm. Back to this event, Toronto could get either a major rainstorm, a mix or a major snowstorm. Last night, I was leaning towards the former, but now, I'm leaning towards the latter. Let's see what happens. Should be fun to track! Yeah, as I'm getting older I don't let busts get me down like I used to as a kid. So, regardless of what happens, this has been fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Crappy PSU graphics, but it looks like the 12z GFS keeps the low south of the WI/IL line at 36. 6z at 42 had the low half way between MKE and GRB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 ukie...996 on ohio/ky border....closed 500 over paducah....hr 48 lol i think it actually went south I really thought we'd have more of a consensus now. I expect most OV offices to disregard the Ukie though and you can't really blame them if they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 OB & OL, YOW's not so hot on the 12z NAM. A couple of hours of snow, couple hours of ZR, and then it's rain for the duration thereafter. Big +3C warm tongue around 800mb. yeah that warm tongue is undeniable. its been getting stronger and stronger over here each and every successive model run for the past couple days. thanks for confirming it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I don't know when Accuweather made the video but just posted it and spammed JB's fan page with it. (It is free for everyone to see.) http://www.accuweather.com/video/705747499001/monster-storms-brutal-cold-lead-up-to-christmas.asp?partner=facebook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Gotta work on those 2m temps, although I suspect this is going to be one of those events where it can be 34 with +SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Looking better for the I-80 crowd unless this run is totally suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Gotta work on those 2m temps, although I suspect this is going to be one of those events where it can be 34 with +SN. I'd agree with that. I'd just like to avoid the worst of the dry slut and i'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 unless I am going blind the RGEM and GFS are moving ESE enough and are compact enough that the deformation zone, swings threw my area. the RGEM looks like it has decent lift. Hell, .1-.15 liquid could be 20-1 or higher ratios with the entire collumn well below -10c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 showing the changeover to +SN nicely. wouldn't be that long but could be intense for a period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 looks like madison would get a tad more snow with the recent one...but then again there is a solid 20hrs for things to shift back down into KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 showing the changeover to +SN nicely. wouldn't be that long but could be intense for a period The defo band at hr54 on the 12z GFS would be hot stuff for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Track differences are huge between NAM/GFS. Watch this map: http://weather.cod.e...sis.sfccon.html Surface lows propagate towards the greatest pressure falls. This will be telling in the next 6 hours which solutions are right. GFS has blizzard over Iowa/NAM southern MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Looks to be a nice snowstorm in the Green Bay area. Total QPF up there is 1.25-1.5. Down here, it's around 1.10 or so, not sure how much of that is snow though. Good trends today so far. Keep this thing going south some more so you folks down in IL can get on the action a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Daddy better get the towel back out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Track differences are huge between NAM/GFS. Watch this map: http://weather.cod.e...sis.sfccon.html Surface lows propagate towards the greatest pressure falls. This will be telling in the next 6 hours which solutions are right. GFS has blizzard over Iowa/NAM southern MN. I posted the unisys 3hr pressure fall map on the previous page, but this link is much better, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Track differences are huge between NAM/GFS. Watch this map: http://weather.cod.e...sis.sfccon.html Surface lows propagate towards the greatest pressure falls. This will be telling in the next 6 hours which solutions are right. GFS has blizzard over Iowa/NAM southern MN. Keep in mind the RGEM basically does the same as the GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 The 12z GFS is absolute gold for Toronto with regard to front end snow. A deluge of rain for Ottawa and Montreal. It's going to be tough for those two cities to watch that if it verifies as we love to go on about how we get tougher winters and more snow than Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Moneyman the GFS looks way cooler. Check out 2m temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Keep in mind the RGEM basically does the same as the GFS.. We have a general idea with a myriad in between. NAM shows a typical very intense low, SREF very close, GFS and RGEM close. Getting to the point where we can simply nowcast it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 The 12z GFS is absolute gold for Toronto with regard to front end snow. A deluge of rain for Ottawa and Montreal. It's going to be tough for those two cities to watch that if it verifies as we love to go on about how we get tougher winters and more snow than Toronto. Yeah, it looks similar to the NAM, although I'll have to check the soundings when they come out to be sure. Heck of a dry slot it punches in after that though. The best CCB/Defo zone snows seem to setup right through the heart of Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 We have a general idea with a myriad in between. NAM shows a typical very intense low, SREF very close, GFS and RGEM close. Getting to the point where we can simply nowcast it. Yeah our model spread has shrunk considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 The 12z GFS is absolute gold for Toronto with regard to front end snow. A deluge of rain for Ottawa and Montreal. It's going to be tough for those two cities to watch that if it verifies as we love to go on about how we get tougher winters and more snow than Toronto. its likely that freezing rain will be the story in ottawa, followed by a short period of rain possible and then cooldown-freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Keep in mind the RGEM basically does the same as the GFS.. SO is the UKIE, but more south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Look at how the GFS intensifies the low down to 977 north of Lake Ontario. Winds are going to be howling with this on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 its likely that freezing rain will be the story in ottawa, followed by a short period of rain possible and then cooldown-freeze. which no longer looks as impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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