Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event? Part III

[Thundersnow12]

I'd be shocked if you reached the low 40s actually. My guess is 35-37 at ORD, colder N and W. A decent snowpack fetch should not allow 40F in ORD.

what do you think about our show chances? keep forgetting your out in DKB now lol

[snowstormcanuck]

yes, i thought this is looking better and better for you, its been trending hard the last couple days....and NAM confirms it.

this one is all but done for our end of the province, hopefully you guys in toronto can score with this one...

I'll run YOW through BUFKIT when the profile updates on the PSU page. You're probably mostly rain attm, but really, like I said above, it wouldn't take much more than a slight jog east to put you guys in on the action. Plus, you got climo on your side.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

yes, i thought this is looking better and better for you, its been trending hard the last couple days....and NAM confirms it.

this one is all but done for our end of the province, hopefully you guys in toronto can score with this one...

my only consolation is that december 1916 didn't see heavy snow in ottawa until the 21st. This summer/fall has been remarkably similar to that year and we saw 100 cm in January 1917

[buckeye]

No kidding. Margusity doesn't seem to have as much pride and showed it this morning by admitting that he "messed up" and that it was a "dumb idea" of his to have the low track across the Ohio Valley. We can laugh at his forecasts, but at least he can admit when he messed up. I agree that JBs pride has been hurt by this. He should just suck it p. I mean, it's the weather, an inexact science. He busted. Big deal.

agree....but as subscriber who has read his columns and watched his vids for many many years....you know that won't happen. Sure, he will say something like its going further north than he thought, but it will than be followed by the caveat that it will still be a paralyzing blizzard, and even in places further south it will be a major event....he'll probably call it the most extreme arctic frontal passage since (fill in an extreme analog here). Remember back in Dec of '00 or '01 when he was claiming the upcoming January would be the coldest, possibly on record, for most of the country....only to have one of the warmest January's on record verify, (that still remains his biggest bust). Even than he spun out of it by claiming he nailed the upper air pattern, it just didn't translate to his thoughts on the surface.

[snowstormcanuck]

RGEM refuses to budge north 1000 just east of ORD at 36, 997 over Harry's house at 48.

[baroclinic_instability]

The fact that it's even that close to happening on this system says something.

i know, impressive stuff. With all guidance showing a stronger PV anomaly and as you mentioned it seems an even more intense low level thermal gradient, interested in seeing what the GFS does. Sooner or later it has to come to reality...it just seems too fast with the surface low.

[Harry]

Oh hell yeah!!

[snowstormcanuck]

RGEM Ptype

36

48

[csnavywx]

That's true i forgot we have nice snowpack down past Champaign, so I'll trust your judgement.

I'm going to ride out with a general 2-6" call for our area. Despite being well south of the low track the trends indicate heights are going to crash petty good by the time the action arrives and i'm favoring a short period of rain/zr followed by an intense but short lived burst of heavy snow. Eventual deformation band placement looks to be better north and west of here, but we should be close enough to sneak and inch or two.

Yeah, it would be a minor miracle if we didn't eat the brunt of the dry slot.

But, we may see some classic flip from heavy rain to heavy snow due to melting in there, as low level temps aren't really all that far above freezing. NAM BUFKIT shows this quite well on the 6/12Z runs, as heavy snow melts into the warm layer and creates a deep 0C isothermal layer to the ground. Profiles like that typically indicate a quick flip from +RA to +SN and typically involve really big rimed aggregates.

[hawkeye_wx]

My result from this system will depend on how much of a trowal can swing south across the area. Some of the latest models are at least encouraging. Even a couple inches would be nice.

[dilly84]

Congrats Buckeye

[Organizing Low]

hmm RGEM appears to have shifted south with its thermal fields,

that a rudimentary assessment based on the ptype map

[jbcmh81]

agree....but as subscriber who has read his columns and watched his vids for many many years....you know that won't happen. Sure, he will say something like its going further north than he thought, but it will than be followed by the caveat that it will still be a paralyzing blizzard, and even in places further south it will be a major event....he'll probably call it the most extreme arctic frontal passage since (fill in an extreme analog here). Remember back in Dec of '00 or '01 when he was claiming the upcoming January would be the coldest, possibly on record, for most of the country....only to have one of the warmest January's on record verify, (that still remains his biggest bust). Even than he spun out of it by claiming he nailed the upper air pattern, it just didn't translate to his thoughts on the surface.

That was for January 2002. The pattern changed to cold at the end of December 2001 was supposed to get increasingly colder as we headed into January, but instead the cold lasted perhaps 2 weeks and that was it for winter.

[Harry]

This will give bowme some tingling in the pants..

[buckeye]

Congrats Buckeye

i wish....6 inches with those winds and we have a quickie blizzard. I think this is due to the fact that the nam is really beginning to rush in the cold air ahead of the front, which makes sense the more intense that low becomes. Even the rgem above is kinda showing that now.

i'm confident we at least have an interesting period ahead on sunday morning

[jbcmh81]

Congrats Buckeye

Some of that is clearly LES... look at the trajectory of L. Michigan. But yeah, looking better for us at least even if we miss the main event well north.

[Indystorm]

hmm RGEM appears to have shifted south with its thermal fields,

that a rudimentary assessment based on the ptype map

Yeah, it just refuses to throw in the trowel and go north like the other models. lol

[A-L-E-K]

what do you think about our show chances? keep forgetting your out in DKB now lol

Quick text extraction of the 12z NAM gives ORD 3" combing the front passage and defo band.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

agree....but as subscriber who has read his columns and watched his vids for many many years....you know that won't happen. Sure, he will say something like its going further north than he thought, but it will than be followed by the caveat that it will still be a paralyzing blizzard, and even in places further south it will be a major event....he'll probably call it the most extreme arctic frontal passage since (fill in an extreme analog here). Remember back in Dec of '00 or '01 when he was claiming the upcoming January would be the coldest, possibly on record, for most of the country....only to have one of the warmest January's on record verify, (that still remains his biggest bust). Even than he spun out of it by claiming he nailed the upper air pattern, it just didn't translate to his thoughts on the surface.

Good post. I absolutely remember December 2001 when he was saying those things. I didn't have a forum like this back then and it was so frustrating to hear him constantly claim the cold was coming when, in the end, it didn't. He took that bust really hard if I remember rightly. He redeemed himself the next winter though with a great call for 2002-2003, as well as his call for the super cold January of 2004.

This is odd though, his not posting an update. usually this only happens when he's away at a conference or at a gymnastics meet.

[A-L-E-K]

This will give bowme some tingling in the pants..

If he can stay snow.

[Harry]

If he can stay snow.

You think the lake will have that much influence?

[Ottawa Blizzard]

RGEM Ptype

36

48

Unless my eyes are playing tricks on me, this actually looks pretty good for the north end of Toronto up towards Ottawa. I am really interested to see how the incoming cold air affects this storm. back in January 1992 (I think January 14-15), Ottawa started out as rain before going to snow as the temperature fell like a rock.

[goknights]

Looks similar

[A-L-E-K]

You think the lake will have that much influence?

On surface temps, yes but it might just be dynamic enough and cold at 850 not to matter. The RGEM precip maps above hint at rain close by MKE, but i'm not sure if that's the lake, the warm tounge or a combo. Anyways we're about to be off to the races.

[Allsnow]

Looks similar

comparing 06z at 30 and 12z hr 24 its further south.....06z had it in se WI.......12z has it over central iowa at 24hrs.....means alot for a place like la cross

[snowstormcanuck]

OB & OL,

YOW's not so hot on the 12z NAM. A couple of hours of snow, couple hours of ZR, and then it's rain for the duration thereafter. Big +3C warm tongue around 800mb.

[Moneyman]

12z GFS takes the low just south of Milwaukee. Racine maybe? Goes in line with the EURO.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

OB & OL,

YOW's not so hot on the 12z NAM. A couple of hours of snow, couple hours of ZR, and then it's rain for the duration thereafter. Big +3C warm tongue around 800mb.

I hate rain during the cold weather months.

I found that big temperature drop storm. take a look at this. is that a flash freeze or what?

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/hourlydata_e.html?timeframe=1&Prov=XX&StationID=4337&Year=1992&Month=1&Day=14

[buckeye]

12z GFS takes the low just south of Milwaukee. Racine maybe? Goes in line with the EURO.

ukie...996 on ohio/ky border....closed 500 over paducah....hr 48

lol i think it actually went south

[Toronto4]

Unless my eyes are playing tricks on me, this actually looks pretty good for the north end of Toronto up towards Ottawa. I am really interested to see how the incoming cold air affects this storm. back in January 1992 (I think January 14-15), Ottawa started out as rain before going to snow as the temperature fell like a rock.

Yes, it was January 14th, 1992. Pearson airport got 16 cm while downtown got 7 cm.

Back to this event, Toronto could get either a major rainstorm, a mix or a major snowstorm. Last night, I was leaning towards the former, but now, I'm leaning towards the latter. Let's see what happens. Should be fun to track!