hoosierwx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 If I were a guessing man, looking at some of the dynamics associated with the fropa, the fropa itself should be quite interesting for many across the Ohio Valley. What would you guess to be the effects? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 by the way, any chance of squall line forming with a little thunder snow???? I remember a few years back severe thunderstorm warnings issued for an arctic front...all snow. I think it was in N. IL and into IN... Hoosier is that right or am i tripp'n again? The text out put from the 6z NAM put out over 4" at ORD with the passage (I suspect 12z will be similar), including a nice period of moderate snow, there's going to be some impressive omega and an intense baroclinic zone, i don't know about thunder snow, but a brief period of SN+ is in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 cA boundary has already creeped its way a good 50-100 miles south of the NAM's thermal field on the western end of the boundary. Not terribly shocking, but something to note. Edit: in relation to the 12z NAM run... RUC has picked up on it a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 so the euro, once upon a time disregarded was correct all the way through. N/W. Are you crazy? This has been a Euro lovefest from day one. I made one comment about it and it was like kicking a hornet's nest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 The text out put from the 6z NAM put out over 4" at ORD with the passage (I suspect 12z will be similar), including a nice period of moderate snow, there's going to be some impressive omega and an intense baroclinic zone, i don't know about thunder snow, but a brief period of SN+ is in the cards. 1/29/08 comes to mind when I see this, although that was a much stronger CF with us getting into the 50/60's I believe before it hit, but had blizzard conditions behind it with +SN 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 602 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... MARSHALL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS * UNTIL 645 PM CST * AT 602 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...WITH HEAVY SNOW... OVER SPARLAND...OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF LACON...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... HENRY LACON VARNA TOLUCA WENONA DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THIS DANGEROUS STORM. GO TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. ABANDON CARS AND MOBILE HOMES IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNED AREA. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR ANY STORM DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL ESDA...OR THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS. nice find....wow I'd love to experience something like that. I wonder how much snow it put down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Gonna be really interesting to see some of these NAM soundings between 48-60. Think it's rain for me, but it could be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Daddy going with reverse psychology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 cA boundary has already creeped its way a good 50-100 miles south of the NAM's thermal field on the western end of the boundary. Not terribly shocking, but something to note. Looking at the way the models process the low level baroclinic zone, I think we may be looking at potential this is even more explosive, hard to fathom at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 nam actually drives the 850 0 line east into ohio before the frontal precip hits.... maybe a quick hit of rain to a nice snow squall...at least somethin I feel better about this one now. I'll probably end up wrong for reversing my negativity, but I think this will be a surprising event for a lot of people, north and south. It will certainly be dynamic enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Margusity has admitted that he "messed up" with this storm, and i have to say I respect someone who can do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Gonna be really interesting to see some of these NAM soundings between 48-60. Think it's rain for me, but it could be close. yeah this could turn out ok for you if this thing keeps trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 1/29/08 comes to mind when I see this, although that was a much stronger CF with us getting into the 50/60's I believe before it hit, but had blizzard conditions behind it with +SN 12z NAM I doubt we hit the 50-60s but low 40s might still happen and i think the cold air on the backside will be more impressive than 1/29/08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Still no post from JB.... yep...i'm start'n to wonder what's up. Can't imagine he was takin to the woodshed....probably more to do with his pride getting thumped. One thing about jb, he is incredibly competitive and doesn't take losing to well. This is one of those cases where even he might have a tough time spinning out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Wow, the latest 12Z NAM is almost showing some sort of warm seclusion type solution in the lowest levels (925 hpa here). Pretty clear here why the NWS has the blizzard warnings in western MN and not eastern. All the good fluffy stuff will be displaced W with the best wind mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 yeah this could turn out ok for you if this thing keeps trending. Ottawa gets really close to some good omega/uvv on the west side of the secondary storm around 60, which is where I'm thinking some dynamic cooling induced snow may occur. Just needs a small shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 What is a warm seclusion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Dynamic cooling FTW. 12z NAM BUFKIT has 0.90" QPF for YYZ. All snow. Definitely not buying into that hook, line, and sinker, but it's an indication that this storm has a few tricks up it sleeve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I doubt we hit the 50-60s but low 40s might still happen and i think the cold air on the backside will be more impressive than 1/29/08. I'd be shocked if you reached the low 40s actually. My guess is 35-37 at ORD, colder N and W. A decent snowpack fetch should not allow 40F in ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 What is a warm seclusion? It isn't a true one. In this case it is just a strong occlusion with the surface low bent back W into the cold air. Intense maritime lows undergo warm seclusions. http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/marwealog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 What is a warm seclusion? Normally seen in strong oceanic storms, where a pocket of warmer air gets "pinched" off towards the center of the storm, essentially making it warm core in the low-levels. Rarely seen inland, but can happen under more extreme circumstances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 yep...i'm start'n to wonder what's up. Can't imagine he was takin to the woodshed....probably more to do with his pride getting thumped. One thing about jb, he is incredibly competitive and doesn't take losing to well. This is one of those cases where even he might have a tough time spinning out of it. No kidding. Margusity doesn't seem to have as much pride and showed it this morning by admitting that he "messed up" and that it was a "dumb idea" of his to have the low track across the Ohio Valley. We can laugh at his forecasts, but at least he can admit when he messed up. I agree that JBs pride has been hurt by this. He should just suck it p. I mean, it's the weather, an inexact science. He busted. Big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Dynamic cooling FTW. 12z NAM BUFKIT has 0.90" QPF for YYZ. All snow. Definitely not buying into that hook, line, and sinker, but it's an indication that this storm has a few tricks up it sleeve. yes, i thought this is looking better and better for you, its been trending hard the last couple days....and NAM confirms it. this one is all but done for our end of the province, hopefully you guys in toronto can score with this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Ottawa gets really close to some good omega/uvv on the west side of the secondary storm around 60, which is where I'm thinking some dynamic cooling induced snow may occur. Just needs a small shift east. Here's hoping. I'm rooting for you too. If accuweather's latest map is to beb elieved, you are right on the southern edge of the 3-6" zone, while Ottawa is in the 1-3" zone. You could get more snow than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 What is a warm seclusion? Also, it is mainly seen in maritime lows owing to extreme low level diabatic heat release owing to strong moisture gradients and sometimes can be convective as well. These will exhibit characteristics of tropical cyclones with a warm core in the most intense systems. This is why maritime lows are some of the largest and most intense storms...they can strengthen owing to both baroclinic instability and air-sea interaction instability. As CS said, can happen in land lows, but there has to be a massive amount of moisture in the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Perfect example of how arctic boundaries creep along the ground: K2WX 101456Z AUTO 08006KT M05/M08 A2958 RMK AO1 SLP050 T10501083 56015 K2WX 101356Z AUTO 00000KT M01/M07 A2958 RMK AO1 SLP045 T10061067 K2WX 101256Z AUTO 00000KT 01/M07 A2961 RMK AO1 SLP052 T00061067 K2WX 101156Z AUTO 24006KT M01/M07 A2963 RMK AO1 SLP058 T10111067 10000 21022 58013 K2WX 101056Z AUTO 26013KT M01/M06 A2965 RMK AO1 SLP064 T10061061 K2WX 100956Z AUTO 28007KT M01/M06 A2967 RMK AO1 SLP070 T10061061 (This is in NW South Dakota) Note the relatively low windspeeds behind it, denoting this as almost purely density driven. Love watching these things move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I'd be shocked if you reached the low 40s actually. My guess is 35-37 at ORD, colder N and W. A decent snowpack fetch should not allow 40F in ORD. That's true i forgot we have nice snowpack down past Champaign, so I'll trust your judgement. I'm going to ride out with a general 2-6" call for our area. Despite being well south of the low track the trends indicate heights are going to crash petty good by the time the action arrives and i'm favoring a short period of rain/zr followed by an intense but short lived burst of heavy snow. Eventual deformation band placement looks to be better north and west of here, but we should be close enough to sneak and inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I was wondering; do people here believe ECs forecast for ottawa next tuesday and wednesday, which calls for highs around -6 or -7 celcius? I was thinking the highs might be 5-10 degrees celcius lower than that given the cold air behind this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Also, it is mainly seen in maritime lows owing to extreme low level diabatic heat release owing to strong moisture gradients and sometimes can be convective as well. These will exhibit characteristics of tropical cyclones with a warm core in the most intense systems. This is why maritime lows are some of the largest and most intense storms...they can strengthen owing to both baroclinic instability and air-sea interaction instability. As CS said, can happen in land lows, but there has to be a massive amount of moisture in the low levels. The fact that it's even that close to happening on this system says something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 602 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... MARSHALL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS * UNTIL 645 PM CST * AT 602 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...WITH HEAVY SNOW... OVER SPARLAND...OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF LACON...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... HENRY LACON VARNA TOLUCA WENONA DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THIS DANGEROUS STORM. GO TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. ABANDON CARS AND MOBILE HOMES IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNED AREA. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR ANY STORM DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL ESDA...OR THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS. That was also the same night that the snow rollers formed across a large section of eastern and southeastern Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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