A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 How much of this ends up being snow is going to be a rough call. At this stage i'm leaning towards a quick power inch or two on the front end and another inch or two in the defo band. 2-4 inches for the LOT area sounds like a good jumping off point. NAM is continuing to track ever so slowly slower with the surface low as it develops a bent-back surface low and a stronger negative tilt trough. Interesting to see if the GFS keys in on this as it is still much faster and has a weaker surface pressure gradient as a result. I'd consider this a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Hard to tell if it's just one run or if it keeps it up, but the 12z NAM doesn't look as strong or north as 0z/6z, it's also more active to the south. It closes off up to 36hrs it does anyways.. See what the rest of the run shows. I think it will lose it again later in the run. We'll see anyways.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 That what closes off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I think all of these models are worthless, we just need to wait until now-casting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I think all of these models are worthless, we just need to wait until now-casting.. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/2432-the-americanwx-complete-list-of-weenie-phrases/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 nam actually drives the 850 0 line east into ohio before the frontal precip hits.... maybe a quick hit of rain to a nice snow squall...at least somethin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Thank you sir.. LOL i'm basically sleeping.. no luck on the 12z sooooo I'll enjoy my inch outside, as I mentioned earlier you cannot get both, the clipper and the storm. :BUT how can Minnesota and all the places up there get 4 now storms in a row? NOT FAIR! You think you're bumming, imagine those snow lovers up in Grand Forks. Fargo, Bismarck, Int Falls, Duluth, Minneapolis are all way above normal, while GF is 30% below normal and going to mostly whiff on this one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 You think you're bumming, imagine those snow lovers up in Grand Forks. Fargo, Bismarck, Int Falls, Duluth, Minneapolis are all way above normal, while GF is 30% below normal and going to mostly whiff on this one too. Minny is due..long due. This maybe their winter ...finally. Chicago has been spoiled for several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 http://www.americanw...weenie-phrases/ LOL,, I feel honored to be in that list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 The system will never fully close off, and as you can see, the NAM has a phased upper level system with a closed contour in the middle meaning the 500 hpa height falls are extreme...which is an indication the storm is very intense. This is deep cyclogenesis. "closed" usually means a cutoff upper low. This is a true cutoff and closed upper low. http://voices.washin...-april-2009.jpg So to answer your question, no, it won't fully close since it will remain baroclinic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 The best of the weenie phrases is: "Its going to manufacture its own cold air"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 if the nam is right extreme eastern OH into W PA could get a quick clock'n Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 If Detroit ever get's a snow storm of at least 15+", i'll be satisfied. Even though we had some good winters, which some of you always bring up ..07/08 09 w/e, i found nothing special about them, except we had 70 inches of snow produced by a bunch of clippers and couple of 10 inch or snowfalls. How about breaking that 24" snowfall record set back in the 1800? HUH, takes 100+years to get a decent snow storm around here? II dont consider a 6" or even 8" snowfall all that impressive.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Daddy u throwin in the towel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 There is beginning to be a trend here and it is worth noting. The northern and deeper cyclone tracks are dominated by higher res models, and farther S/slightly faster solutions are dominated by lower res guidance. Why? Because lower res models can better model deep and intense cyclogenesis owing to mesoscale effects which can become prominent, especially jet circulations and frontal circulations. Keep in mind that the SREF members are dominated by 12km grid models, the NAM is 12 km, the Euro is a spectral wave model and approximately 15km...then the lower res models come including UK/CMC/NOGAPS. Remember that if the models can't develope a dominant and intense northern cyclone, a southern solution will develop. This is why those far southern tracks probably won't end up verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 If I were a guessing man, looking at some of the dynamics associated with the fropa, the fropa itself should be quite interesting for many across the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Minny is due..long due. This maybe their winter ...finally. Chicago has been spoiled for several years. Chicago can still pull a snowstorm out on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 If Detroit ever get's a snow storm of at least 15+", i'll be satisfied. Even though we had some good winters, which some of you always bring up ..07/08 09 w/e, i found nothing special about them, except we had 70 inches of snow produced by a bunch of clippers and couple of 10 inch or snowfalls. How about breaking that 24" snowfall record set back in the 1800? HUH, takes 100+years to get a decent snow storm around here? II dont consider a 6" or even 8" snowfall all that impressive.. This is a sure fire way to get Josh/Michsnowfreak going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Chicago can still pull a snowstorm out on this one. A lot of the stronger SREF members are developing a massive and persistent stretching deformation zone. You guys should be rooting for the intense solutions. http://www.meteo.psu...z/srefloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 If I were a guessing man, looking at some of the dynamics associated with the fropa, the fropa itself should be quite interesting for many across the Ohio Valley. it'll be the most interesting part of all this and it'll come thru at 3am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TruePatriot Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Thank you sir.. LOL i'm basically sleeping.. no luck on the 12z sooooo I'll enjoy my inch outside, as I mentioned earlier you cannot get both, the clipper and the storm. :BUT how can Minnesota and all the places up there get 4 now storms in a row? NOT FAIR! MSP is making up for 2007-2009 when it was the screw zone getting nothing as the storms paraded over Madison WI. Besides, it gets old not being able to travel on Saturdays. This one is definitely going blizzard warned w/ the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 it'll be the most interesting part of all this and it'll come thru at 3am by the way, any chance of squall line forming with a little thunder snow???? I remember a few years back severe thunderstorm warnings issued for an arctic front...all snow. I think it was in N. IL and into IN... Hoosier is that right or am i tripp'n again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 A lot of the stronger SREF members are developing a massive and persistent stretching deformation zone. You guys should be rooting for the intense solutions. I have been for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 A lot of the stronger SREF members are developing a massive and persistent stretching deformation zone. You guys should be rooting for the intense solutions. http://www.meteo.psu...z/srefloop.html Dry-Slot party over my house: Sat evening 9pm- whenever. No covert charge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 What was originally prognosed to be a blizzard of epic proportions for my region looks to be pretty much a non-event now. Even the cold behind the system doesn't look all that impressive, with EC now calling for highs of 20F and lows of zero on both Tuesday and Wednesday. We saw colder temperatures in December two years ago - even last year. Complete dissapointment. The rain will wash away the 1-2" of snow we have on the ground. Still no post from JB.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 by the way, any chance of squall line forming with a little thunder snow???? I remember a few years back severe thunderstorm warnings issued for an arctic front...all snow. I think it was in N. IL and into IN... Hoosier is that right or am i tripp'n again? Your read my mind, happened back in 03 or 04 in Illinois. ILX issued severe thunderstorm warnings for winds up to 65 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Goknights- 100% throwing it in... Its game over... <------another very good weenie phrase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 by the way, any chance of squall line forming with a little thunder snow???? I remember a few years back severe thunderstorm warnings issued for an arctic front...all snow. I think it was in N. IL and into IN... Hoosier is that right or am i tripp'n again? I remember that. I forget which winter though. May have been either 02-03 or 03-04? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 by the way, any chance of squall line forming with a little thunder snow???? I remember a few years back severe thunderstorm warnings issued for an arctic front...all snow. I think it was in N. IL and into IN... Hoosier is that right or am i tripp'n again? BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 602 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... MARSHALL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS * UNTIL 645 PM CST * AT 602 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...WITH HEAVY SNOW... OVER SPARLAND...OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF LACON...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... HENRY LACON VARNA TOLUCA WENONA DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THIS DANGEROUS STORM. GO TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. ABANDON CARS AND MOBILE HOMES IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNED AREA. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR ANY STORM DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL ESDA...OR THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I remember that. I forget which winter though. May have been either 02-03 or 03-04? im good at remembering events, horrible with dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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