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Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event? Part III


Chicago Storm

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Mildly interesting to me, but the 6z NAM actually turns the initial slug of precip over to snow at the end here, to the tune of 1.2". Obviously we've seen hints of that with the RGEM, so I guess it can't be totally ruled out. Or at the very least, something to keep my attention locally in an otherwise MN, WI, MI snowstorm.

EDIT: It does the same at ORD, but with 4.4" falling.

Closing off changes the picture for a number of folks outside of IA/MN etc. Becomes all about when does it close off and where the closed low tracks. Also helps to wrap in precip on the backside.

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Closing off changes the picture for a number of folks outside of IA/MN etc. Becomes all about when does it close off and where the closed low tracks. Also helps to wrap in precip on the backside.

It certainly brings a new scenario to the picture. Also I assume an occluding low would sweep the cold air through faster. I'm not going to bite on this happening at the moment, but I also feel this may not be a "textbook" storm for those south (IA, IL, IN, etc) of the main band of snow. Should be fun to watch.

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It certainly brings a new scenario to the picture. Also I assume an occluding low would sweep the cold air through faster. I'm not going to bite on this happening at the moment, but I also feel this may not be a "textbook" storm for those south (IA, IL, IN, etc) of the main band of snow. Should be fun to watch.

It certainly won't be your typical rain to snow scenario, so I'm trying my best to hold down my usual prejudices against those. We have two things to watch, the NAM is showing the heights crash eastward lightning fast, if it happens like the 6z or so is advertising, it's going to be quite the event in its own right, almost a squal line of snow. The second being what kind of defo band the mature low to the east throws back, including a brief period of enhancement on this side. The pure LE probably deserves its own thread.

I'll drop a legit first call after the 12z runs.

EDIT: doesn't look like the12z NAM will be quite as wound up, which is a bummer.

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WOW..

Note the jet energy coming in off the Pacific and then look down towards TX.

Impressive to say the least and already digging.

You're really trying to wish this one south huh?

So far looks like no major changes on the nam.

It's a hair weaker at 850, i doubt it goes north of 0z/6z that's for sure.

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my bad, but it was more teasing than fight picking, i like harry.

I'm sure we see a lot of these today.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/2432-the-americanwx-complete-list-of-weenie-phrases/

All is good dude.

I know, but I just want anyone to get the wrong idea.

Like you had mentioned before, and the 12z NAM has it, but nice packing of the 850 temps here:

nam_850_024m.gif

Thanks man..

It is trying but being the NAM beyond 24hrs i know better then to get my hopes up.

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Kinda went through this earlier, but this is all exactly as we discussed it yesterday. See that shortwave trough over MT? That will initiate incipient cyclogenesis and in this case deep cyclogenesis. The jet energy will dig S, but because the strength of the baroclinic zone to the N, this area will explode and will dominate cyclogenesis. This is why the models stunk 48 hours out, and 80% of the time, the southern solution would verify with strong secondary development.

post-999-0-13136600-1291990186.png

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Kinda went through this earlier, but this is all exactly as we discussed it yesterday. See that shortwave trough over MT? THat will initiate incipient and in this case deep cyclogenesis. The jet energy will dig S, but because the strength of the baroclinic zone to the N, this area will explode and will dominate cyclogenesis. This is why the models stunk 48 hours out, and 80% of the time, the southern solution would verify with strong secondary development.

post-999-0-13136600-1291990186.png

Still the issue of closing off. Or do you believe that it wont close off?

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Lake Effect Snow!?!?

Thank you sir.. LOL i'm basically sleeping.. no luck on the 12z sooooo I'll enjoy my inch outside, as I mentioned earlier you cannot get both, the clipper and the storm.

:BUT how can Minnesota and all the places up there get 4 now storms in a row? NOT FAIR!

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