Harry Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Mildly interesting to me, but the 6z NAM actually turns the initial slug of precip over to snow at the end here, to the tune of 1.2". Obviously we've seen hints of that with the RGEM, so I guess it can't be totally ruled out. Or at the very least, something to keep my attention locally in an otherwise MN, WI, MI snowstorm. EDIT: It does the same at ORD, but with 4.4" falling. Closing off changes the picture for a number of folks outside of IA/MN etc. Becomes all about when does it close off and where the closed low tracks. Also helps to wrap in precip on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Closing off changes the picture for a number of folks outside of IA/MN etc. Becomes all about when does it close off and where the closed low tracks. Also helps to wrap in precip on the backside. It certainly brings a new scenario to the picture. Also I assume an occluding low would sweep the cold air through faster. I'm not going to bite on this happening at the moment, but I also feel this may not be a "textbook" storm for those south (IA, IL, IN, etc) of the main band of snow. Should be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 6z HI-RES WRF NMM 48 hour total QPF. This would be one heck of a snowstorm from just east/southeast of MSP and then up to the U.P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I see Blizzard Watches are up for basically the top 3 rows of counties in IA and the SW corner of MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Here comes the 12z. I am guessing the NAM will hold serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 It certainly brings a new scenario to the picture. Also I assume an occluding low would sweep the cold air through faster. I'm not going to bite on this happening at the moment, but I also feel this may not be a "textbook" storm for those south (IA, IL, IN, etc) of the main band of snow. Should be fun to watch. It certainly won't be your typical rain to snow scenario, so I'm trying my best to hold down my usual prejudices against those. We have two things to watch, the NAM is showing the heights crash eastward lightning fast, if it happens like the 6z or so is advertising, it's going to be quite the event in its own right, almost a squal line of snow. The second being what kind of defo band the mature low to the east throws back, including a brief period of enhancement on this side. The pure LE probably deserves its own thread. I'll drop a legit first call after the 12z runs. EDIT: doesn't look like the12z NAM will be quite as wound up, which is a bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 WOW.. Note the jet energy coming in off the Pacific and then look down towards TX. Impressive to say the least and already digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 So far looks like no major changes on the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 WOW.. Note the jet energy coming in off the Pacific and then look down towards TX. Impressive to say the least and already digging. You're really trying to wish this one south huh? So far looks like no major changes on the nam. It's a hair weaker at 850, i doubt it goes north of 0z/6z that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 so the euro, once upon a time disregarded was correct all the way through. N/W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 You're really trying to wish this one south huh? Come on man, no sense in trying to pick fights today. I think we can have some good discussion without getting chippy, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Come on man, no sense in trying to pick fights today. I think we can have some good discussion without getting chippy, no? my bad, but it was more teasing than fight picking, i like harry. I'm sure we see a lot of these today. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/2432-the-americanwx-complete-list-of-weenie-phrases/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 9z SREFS generally like the idea of the northern track initially but there's at least an incipient trend towards trying to drag the sfc low ESE/SE through MI/Lk Erie towards the best height falls around 48-60 hours. Might be the SREFS way of melding the primary low with some type of redevelopment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Well... If the GFS is right i'm getting basically nothing now... No more wxcaster maps for me this winter.. game over.. I guess i get a week of single digits out of the deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 my bad, but it was more teasing than fight picking, i like harry. I'm sure we see a lot of these today. http://www.americanw...weenie-phrases/ I know, but I just want anyone to get the wrong idea. Like you had mentioned before, and the 12z NAM has it, but nice packing of the 850 temps here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 So a lot of us are gonna miss the main show with this, but it's not a typical system and going to be interesting/suprising for a lot, too. Thank God for L MI! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 So a lot of us are gonna miss the main show with this, but it's not a typical system and going to be interesting/suprising for a lot, too. Thank God for L MI! me=jealous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 This same crap happened last winter here The stupid models were showing a huge dumping of snow on Christmas and we ended up with rain...and i think no accumulation. I should know better then to buy into the GFS so many days out. Sauvkille was right all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 So a lot of us are gonna miss the main show with this, but it's not a typical system and going to be interesting/suprising for a lot, too. Thank God for L MI! what is that spsd to mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I want spring and summer back!!!!!!!lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 my bad, but it was more teasing than fight picking, i like harry. I'm sure we see a lot of these today. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/2432-the-americanwx-complete-list-of-weenie-phrases/ All is good dude. I know, but I just want anyone to get the wrong idea. Like you had mentioned before, and the 12z NAM has it, but nice packing of the 850 temps here: Thanks man.. It is trying but being the NAM beyond 24hrs i know better then to get my hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Kinda went through this earlier, but this is all exactly as we discussed it yesterday. See that shortwave trough over MT? That will initiate incipient cyclogenesis and in this case deep cyclogenesis. The jet energy will dig S, but because the strength of the baroclinic zone to the N, this area will explode and will dominate cyclogenesis. This is why the models stunk 48 hours out, and 80% of the time, the southern solution would verify with strong secondary development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 what is that spsd to mean? Lake Effect Snow!?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 All is good dude. Thanks man.. It is trying but being the NAM beyond 24hrs i know better then to get my hopes up. Hard to tell if it's just one run or if it keeps it up, but the 12z NAM doesn't look as strong or north as 0z/6z, it's also more active to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Kinda went through this earlier, but this is all exactly as we discussed it yesterday. See that shortwave trough over MT? THat will initiate incipient and in this case deep cyclogenesis. The jet energy will dig S, but because the strength of the baroclinic zone to the N, this area will explode and will dominate cyclogenesis. This is why the models stunk 48 hours out, and 80% of the time, the southern solution would verify with strong secondary development. Still the issue of closing off. Or do you believe that it wont close off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 what is that spsd to mean? Lake enhancement/effect me=jealous I feel for ya! Gotta suc in a way to be so close to the lake, but on the wrong side. That said, I've seen plenty of times where you cash in from an east wind during a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I know, but I just want anyone to get the wrong idea. How could anyone get the wrong idea about, Alek? I mean, that's crazy talk right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 NAM is continuing to track ever so slowly slower with the surface low as it develops a bent-back surface low and a stronger negative tilt trough. Interesting to see if the GFS keys in on this as it is still much faster and has a weaker surface pressure gradient as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Lake Effect Snow!?!? Thank you sir.. LOL i'm basically sleeping.. no luck on the 12z sooooo I'll enjoy my inch outside, as I mentioned earlier you cannot get both, the clipper and the storm. :BUT how can Minnesota and all the places up there get 4 now storms in a row? NOT FAIR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Still the issue of closing off. Or do you believe that it wont close off? That what closes off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.