wisconsinwx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Verbatim, it's a good 15 hours of moderate to heavy snow for areas north of I-80 (trowal & deformation), not including initial mix. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Really? For people in Southeastern Wisconsin (especially near the lake), it just looks like a sloppy mess with some back snows. Edit: that might've been looking at previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 The CMC is a tad farther N, but more importantly it is much more intense, following with the general trend of all guidance. oZ: Earlier 12Z: i noticed that too...thank you for your detailed and very informative discussions on this storm and others you have commented about...very educational for me anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Verbatim, it's a good 15 hours of moderate to heavy snow for areas north of I-80 (trowal & deformation), not including initial mix. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html hmm still a nice hit for here. not buying it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Really? For people in Southeastern Wisconsin (especially near the lake), it just looks like a sloppy mess with some back snows. Edit: that might've been looking at previous runs. Mostly for IN/MI/OH folks, as the low slows and take on a negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 GEM takes the low to La Crosse, and moves it ESE. I don't understand why it would move ESE instead of E or NE. Anyone explain please? Trough is digging and moving south. the jet is probably sharper, the Gem is also stronger.. when a H5 vort comes out of Eastern New Mexico and cuts to the lakes it is a different situation, this energy is coming off the PNW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoeWx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Wow, I've never seen this site! I like it bookmarked. Thanks! will be very useful (better than the E-Wall) At least for SLP Precip/Type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Euro @ 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 Might as well... 0z ECMWF: 24hrs: Eongated 1004MB low from Southern South dakota into Eastern Colorado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 Might as well... 0z ECMWF: 24hrs: Eongated 1004MB low from Southern South dakota into Eastern Colorado. 30hrs: 1004MB SLP in NW. Iowa...SE of Sioux Falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 30hrs: 1004MB SLP in NW. Iowa...SE of Sioux Falls. 36hrs: 1004MB SLP along the IA/MN border. Nice hit for MSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 36hrs: 1004MB SLP along the IA/MN border. Nice hit for MSP. 42hrs: 1004MB SLP centered just south of LSE. (MN/WI/IA corners) Nice hit from S. Minnesota up into N. Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 42hrs: 1004MB SLP centered just south of LSE. (MN/WI/IA corners) Nice hit from S. Minnesota up into N. Michigan. 48hrs: 1004MB SLP centered along the Lake Michigan/WI shore, near Milwaukee. Nice hit across much of Wisconsin up into N. Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 42hrs: 1004MB SLP centered just south of LSE. (MN/WI/IA corners) Nice hit from S. Minnesota up into N. Michigan. Looks like it's going to be quite similar to the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 Looks like it's going to be quite similar to the 12z run. Basically... Better looking trowal though. I mean weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 That can't be good for me... similar to the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 48hrs: 1004MB SLP centered along the Lake Michigan/WI shore, near Milwaukee. Nice hit across much of Wisconsin up into N. Michigan. 54hrs: Sub 1004MB low elongated from Northern/Lower Michigan down towards Dayton, OH. Nice hit for GB/Traverse City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Well at least for those of us who aren't in the heavy snow band we'll have an interesting arctic frontal passage. May see very quick temp drop offs immediately behind the front. I haven't really even looked all that much into the wind gust potential behind the front, but it sounds pretty substantial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 54hrs: Sub 1004MB low elongated from Northern/Lower Michigan down towards Dayton, OH. Nice hit for GB/Traverse City. 60hrs: Elongated 1000MB low from the Lake Huron/Michigan shores down to the OH/WV border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 60hrs: Elongated 1000MB low from the Lake Huron/Michigan shores down to the OH/WV border. 66hrs: Elongated 996MB low from Ontario/Lake Huron down into Northern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 66hrs: Elongated 996MB low from Ontario/Lake Huron down into Northern VA. 72hrs: 992Mb SLP just north of Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 High res WRF. This thing looks like it's going to move through pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 So most models have this thing moving almost due east from iowa? except the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 48hrs out on the high res WRF. Looks like a band of showers from northern Indiana south ahead of the front. Heavy snow in Wisconsin. The wraparound precip in the colder air doesn't move a whole lot between 39 and 48hrs. Basically leaves areas south of I-80 little hope for accumulating snow. Obviously this is just one model though. A far cry from what looked like a potential widespread blizzard for areas further south at various positions in latitude over the past several days. Given the strong jet dynamics and incoming arctic air I'm left very unimpressed with this whole system. The swath of snow up north will be impressive, but the overall coverage doesn't seem that great to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 48hrs out on the high res WRF. Looks like a band of showers from northern Indiana south ahead of the front. Heavy snow in Wisconsin. The wraparound precip in the colder air doesn't move a whole lot between 39 and 48hrs. Basically leaves areas south of I-80 little hope for accumulating snow. Obviously this is just one model though. A far cry from what looked like a potential widespread blizzard for areas further south at various positions in latitude over the past several days. Given the strong jet dynamics and incoming arctic air I'm left very unimpressed with this whole system. The swath of snow up north will be impressive, but the overall coverage doesn't seem that great to me. This looks BORING!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I would call the 00z runs a slight improvement.. Follow along.. The idea ( Mine ) as i have said all along is for the system to close off as it is dropping in and tracking across IL/IN/OH etc. Here is 48hrs.. GGEM.. UK Euro.. This is now at 60hrs. Note the differences. However the euro is going the same way with closing off. euro.. Canadian at 60hrs.. Which does have it closed off over top of Indianapolis. Here is the UK at 60hrs.. Note that at 48 and 60hrs neither the GFS or NAM closes it off. Thus the further nw track. I'll be really interested to see the euro ensembles. I strongly suspect even more will have it and keep it closed off as it travels across from IA to IL/IN etc. With a close off the surface low is basically trapped as all see on the UK/GGEM and even the euro somewhat but it opens back up which allows the surface low to nudge north. I'll post what they are saying when it rolls out. Now if models hold true to form ( as they have been acting/behaving this fall ) then i am pretty certain that the 12z runs will be alot closer to the 00z GGEM/UK. They should start heading in that direction anyways. The battle is between closing off and not closing off. Could make a huge difference in surface low track and ofcourse precip type/warm air getting shunted off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I would call the 00z runs a slight improvement.. Follow along.. The idea ( Mine ) as i have said all along is for the system to close off as it is dropping in and tracking across IL/IN/OH etc. Here is 48hrs.. GGEM.. UK Euro.. This is now at 60hrs. Note the differences. However the euro is going the same way with closing off. euro.. Canadian at 60hrs.. Which does have it closed off over top of Indianapolis. Here is the UK at 60hrs.. Note that at 48 and 60hrs neither the GFS or NAM closes it off. Thus the further nw track. I'll be really interested to see the euro ensembles. I strongly suspect even more will have it and keep it closed off as it travels across from IA to IL/IN etc. With a close off the surface low is basically trapped as all see on the UK/GGEM and even the euro somewhat but it opens back up which allows the surface low to nudge north. I'll post what they are saying when it rolls out. Now if models hold true to form ( as they have been acting/behaving this fall ) then i am pretty certain that the 12z runs will be alot closer to the 00z GGEM/UK. They should start heading in that direction anyways. The battle is between closing off and not closing off. Could make a huge difference in surface low track and ofcourse precip type/warm air getting shunted off. Very nice analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherTree Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Before anyone asks, this is not model generated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Very nice analysis. Thanks.. BTW. Even with what i am thinking IA/WI etc should still get it good. The main difference will be further south and east of there. That's me though.. Oh and euro ensembles have just begun to roll out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 i'm wondering, looking at a couple of models tonight. could the big problem be that it doesn't get enough of a moisture hookup with the GOM, Atlantic, or even Hudson Bay until it's too late for IA. The dynamics appear to be there, but limited moisture from only the great lakes, and particularly lakes superior and michigan is going to be the major factor for Wisconsin, MN, and the UP of MI. that being said, once the feed does kick in, areas from northeastern Ontario to western Quebec near and north of the Laurentians could get a nice haul when it's all said and done from the synoptic system. NWS-Duluth is saying 20-1 for the ratios and i could believe that, if not maybe 25-1. i think, if i am looking at the grid data correct, the twin cities starts at 10-1 and then gradually near 20-1 in the later end of the storm. what is everyone in here speculating for snow ratios for the storm? in different spots As for the squalls post-departure, any possibility of thundersnow lee-side of the lakes, or is that just not in the cards with lake waters now between +5 to +8C? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 sucks to see the snow band really explode just east of me past the Missouri river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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