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Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event? Part III


Chicago Storm

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Biggest bust for JB in quite awhile looks to be on the table. Still, at least he put out a forecast. i wonder if he's been raked across the coals by the higher ups in the office? If so, it's unfair, but that's the problem when you have a for-profit weather organization.

He actually tweeted 45 minutes ago that he is waiting for the last model runs to come out. maybe the computers at accuweather are slow or down.

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I guess we'll find out very shortly what happens! not many hours between now and the start of this mess

You'll get hammered probably unless this thing tracks to the north of you.

I don't like my chances here, this thing keeps trending NW, and the GFS already has the low over me. Only thing that would change this, if the EURO stays where it was from last run, or moves farther south (highly unlikley)

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You'll get hammered probably unless this thing tracks to the north of you.

I don't like my chances here, this thing keeps trending NW, and the GFS already has the low over me. Only thing that would change this, if the EURO stays where it was from last run, or moves farther south (highly unlikley)

Pretty Much, unless something changes 12 hours later...

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Ha thanks, but no need for congrats yet, a lot of little things to work out with details. GFS, unexpectedly, actually sped up the speed of this system. It has the surface low displaced farther E from the massive high over the Dakotas and a slightly weaker pressure gradient as a result. This will have big impacts on potential blizzard criteria. Also GFS places the heaviest snow corridor a tad bit more south. NAM also was a tad faster with the upper wave, so a trend may be developing there. Methinks somewhere in between as the wave may be faster, but strong cyclogenesis will result in a slightly slower surface low track.

Yeah, too early for congrats over the specific details (perhaps that's what Hoosier got SVS over?). I was only congratulating you on your correct deduction that the southern tracks modelled would be incorrect.

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Noticed on the models we have a nice backside band of snow that develops thru here for a period of time with about 0.31 of liquid equivalent in very cold air with some good dendrites potentially (although that remains to be seen with an clarity) and that could yield a band of 3-5" of snow somewhere around here. So I'm not totally going to write this off just yet but the fat lady is in the middle of her chorus here.

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For those of us in this region it looks like our fate is pretty much sealed. Quickly running out of time and the trend is not our friend if you want snow. It's definitely going to be interesting, as we transition from relatively warm air to arctic air, but really don't think we see much in the way of accumulations. The wraparound action could be somewhat interesting, but really wouldn't expect more than an inch or two at best, unless something changes in a big way over the few runs.

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Yeah, too early for congrats over the specific details (perhaps that's what Hoosier got SVS over?). I was only congratulating you on your correct deduction that the southern tracks modelled would be incorrect.

Well thanksthumbsupsmileyanim.gif I am always down for a lively weather discussion, which this definitely has been. This storm will be fun to watch for everyone, even the ones not seeing massive snow.

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Biggest bust for JB in quite awhile looks to be on the table. Still, at least he put out a forecast. i wonder if he's been raked across the coals by the higher ups in the office? If so, it's unfair, but that's the problem when you have a for-profit weather organization.

no they're raking Margusity instead... If there's any good news, at least the euro is right as usual.... which means you might as well lock central illinois for next weekends storm, that the 0z euro showed yesterday...

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Biggest bust for JB in quite awhile looks to be on the table. Still, at least he put out a forecast. i wonder if he's been raked across the coals by the higher ups in the office? If so, it's unfair, but that's the problem when you have a for-profit weather organization.

it's tough to shed a tear for the guy....he brings it on himself with descriptions like he used yesterday, "life threatener" and "will close down i-80". He warned people against traveling from Nebraska to WPA.

there's a point when it becomes professional malpractice

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no they're raking Margusity instead... If there's any good news, at least the euro is right as usual.... which means you might as well lock central illinois for next weekends storm, that the 0z euro showed yesterday...

unfortunately the euro longrange is just as pathetic as the gfs. I've had about 3 awesome snowstorms depicted on the euro so far this young season.

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Noticed on the models we have a nice backside band of snow that develops thru here for a period of time with about 0.31 of liquid equivalent in very cold air with some good dendrites potentially (although that remains to be seen with an clarity) and that could yield a band of 3-5" of snow somewhere around here. So I'm not totally going to write this off just yet but the fat lady is in the middle of her chorus here.

and with some wind it could be interesting, lets hope the fat lady coughs on some popcorn while singing :popcorn:

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it's tough to shed a tear for the guy....he brings it on himself with descriptions like he used yesterday, "life threatener" and "will close down i-80". He warned people against traveling from Nebraska to WPA.

there's a point when it becomes professional malpractice

He should never have hyped the storm up to that degree. I mean, this is a disasterous forecast for him. I mean, he's not usually this wrong. Seriously, I doubt his clients are very happy. I don't see why they'd be raking Margusity for this. People don't pay to read/listen to his forecasts. You can get them on the free site, so who cares if he busts. People pay to read/watch Bastardi. In fact, he's the only met on accuweather that you have to pay to listen to/read. Even Elliot Abrams is free to read. People pay and hope to get accurate forecasts. He was looking very uncomfortable in his video this morning, as if his boss wasn't too happy with him.

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unfortunately the euro longrange is just as pathetic as the gfs. I've had about 3 awesome snowstorms depicted on the euro so far this young season.

Unfortuantely, I think the overall pattern/ storm track for the winter is showing itself, which means we could be in for a crap winter in these parts. We're paying for 2007-2008/2008-2009.

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Unfortuantely, I think the overall pattern/ storm track for the winter is showing itself, which means we could be in for a crap winter in these parts. We're paying for 2007-2008/2008-2009.

Your paying for those winters on the 9th day of 2010-2011 Met Winter? Really...

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He should never have hyped the storm up to that degree. I mean, this is a disasterous forecast for him. I mean, he's not usually this wrong. Seriously, I doubt his clients are very happy. I don't see why they'd be raking Margusity for this. People don't pay to read/listen to his forecasts. You can get them on the free site, so who cares if he busts. People pay to read/watch Bastardi. In fact, he's the only met on accuweather that you have to pay to listen to/read. Even Elliot Abrams is free to read. People pay and hope to get accurate forecasts. He was looking very uncomfortable in his video this morning, as if his boss wasn't too happy with him.

i watched that vid....he really didn't seem to be conceding much, in fact the area he circle for blizz conditions was still n IN and OH, even mentioning CLE. What i found strange was his column that popped up this morning with a wednesday 10pm time on it that said something like "the euro has my idea". It was strange for two reasons, first the euro would have been out like 9 hours already.....second the euro was a lot further north than what he outlined in this mornings vid.

maybe it's a little intentional confusion.

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i watched that vid....he really didn't seem to be conceding much, in fact the area he circle for blizz conditions was still n IN and OH, even mentioning CLE. What i found strange was his column that popped up this morning with a wednesday 10pm time on it that said something like "the euro has my idea". It was strange for two reasons, first the euro would have been out like 9 hours already.....second the euro was a lot further north than what he outlined in this mornings vid.

maybe it's a little intentional confusion.

In fairness, I believe that was posted late last night. Someone drew attention to it in this forum, but many rolled their eyes. In the video he even highlighted NNY and eastern Ontario as places to get hammered. Who knows, maybe he'll score a coup? I agree, though, that he brough tthiso n himself by making it sound like it would be the storm of the decade or something.

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lets put it this way, a LOT of the winter forecasts that I've seen have said that basically winter is one month this year..... December.... then it's warm up city....

Exactly, many are saying that winter is done after Christmas. I can only hope that the storm track lifts north into my region. Then again, it could just be Minnesota and NW Ontario specials all winter.

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Exactly, many are saying that winter is done after Christmas. I can only hope that the storm track lifts north into my region. Then again, it could just be Minnesota and NW Ontario specials all winter.

if it does you won't be seeing me come near the Mississippi river next spring... It'll snow.... EVENTUALLY, even if we have to MAKE it snow!

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