buckeye Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 we need that trough to go a little more neg and really pull that storm back nw more we're gettin there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Henry Margusity seems to still think the initial low will track across the Ohio valley. Here's his video from the free site. http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/42794/afternoon-video-update-a-look-at-all-the-models-crazy-crazy.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Dusting at best. I lol'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 we need that trough to go a little more neg and really pull that storm back nw more we're gettin there. It's closer than it was at 12Z. At least heading in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 we need that trough to go a little more neg and really pull that storm back nw more we're gettin there. 72 it's over Binghamton, NY. Real close to something special. Just theoretically speaking (not a forecast), if that northern s/w near Lk Superior could phase in quicker, I think we'd have at least a shot at a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 One thing we'll have to watch for if strengthening trends continue is the tendency for a tail of deform/trowel precip to hang back in the colder air somewhere south or southwest of the deepening low. agree with this. We may salvage some interesting weather yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 low pressure just consolidates over w/c PA. if we can get more of a reflection up the the TN valley.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 low pressure just consolidates over w/c PA. if we can get more of a reflection up the the TN valley.... It's REALLY close. Even without, it's still a decent snowfall with lots of blowing and drifting later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Man the NAM looks epic with the inland penetration of lake snows off of Lake Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 72 it's over Binghamton, NY. Real close to something special. Just theoretically speaking (not a forecast), if that northern s/w near Lk Superior could phase in quicker, I think we'd have at least a shot at a bomb. if you're talking about this little guy.....I've been thinking the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 agree with this. We may salvage some interesting weather yet. Or just get it to occlude about 3-6 hours earlier and get our cold air back in here early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Or just get it to occlude about 3-6 hours earlier and get our cold air back in here early. the way things are trending, very possible. You really get the feeling this thing has a few tricks up it's sleeve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Man the NAM looks epic with the inland penetration of lake snows off of Lake Michigan. Could possibly be historic. Snowblowers and shovels at the ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Could possibly be historic. Snowblowers and shovels at the ready. It will be good, but i think trajectory will change too much throughout the event to keep any single location from going historic stylee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 if you're talking about this little guy.....I've been thinking the same thing Yeah, that's the one. You phase that with the main s/w, close of an 500mb center, and you got a better shot of wrapping the sfc low back to the NNW, rather than N/NNE like the NAM's showing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Yeah, that's the one. You phase that with the main s/w, close of an 500mb center, and you got a better shot of wrapping the sfc low back to the NNW, rather than N/NNE like the NAM's showing now. I'd gladly take what it is showing now though. But I agree, and it's not out of the realm of possibility. we'll have to see how the gfs comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Should start a new thread for the back side flurries in Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 It will be good, but i think trajectory will change too much throughout the event to keep any single location from going historic stylee. Granted it's not wise to take the qpf verbatim, but it's pretty ridiculous to see this. Low level winds are ripping though so substantial inland penetration is basically a given in this type of setup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Granted it's not wise to take the qpf verbatim, but it's pretty ridiculous to see this. Low level winds are ripping though so substantial inland penetration is basically a given in this type of setup: No doubt, but until we see the trend stop, i'm going to assume it continues, that's how i roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I'd gladly take what it is showing now though. But I agree, and it's not out of the realm of possibility. we'll have to see how the gfs comes in. Really, truly, incredibly, not a climatologically favoured storm track. But hey, there's a chance. And like you say, even what the NAM's showing now is at least a couple of sloppy consolation inches. I'd take that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Alek getting fingered at 60 hours This made me ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Is that the energy for this storm just off the western canadian coast at hour 12 of the 0z NAM? If it is then it would only take 24 hours for part of it to make it into iowa. I am sort of a newbie and that sounds kind of impossibe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 UP gets demolished. Although for them, I'm sure this is old hat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Absolutely! Alberta Clippers up in MN and ND often times can produce ground blizzards with only 1-3" of light snow. Also remember extreme cold air advection results in strong subsidence and that enhances vertical mixing of air and subsequent wind gusts. Also, air will have a downward component and it is more apt to "kick" up snow from the ground. UND has a "blowing snow" algorithm used for road weather and it is part of the "MDSS" system. This storm will have a ton of CAA as well as vertical shear in the low levels due to the rather tight low level baroclinic zone NAM suggest potential for 45+ to mix down. For now I think NWS fine with Winter Storm Warning, but as it gets closer upgrade to blizzard possible for localized areas. Not just the High Plains either, some of the worst conditions I've seen here came as a result of 1-2" followed by sunny skies and high winds and zero visibility. This was just last winter, following the big 12/9 blizzard, and conditions were worse with the 1-2" of snow than with the nearly foot a few weeks earlier. It was unreal to be able to look up and see the sun, but not be able to see road signs within a few feet of my car. So even some lighter def band snows with this thing could carry significant impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Should start a new thread for the back side flurries in Ohio you guys better watch it....us tropical folks of the region may end up scoring bigger on this whole mess then the rest of you*... this is what happens when you beat the nw drums too hard... *edit: except for whereever the micro blizzard sets up in the frozen tundra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 UP gets demolished. Although for them, I'm sure this is old hat. I am right on the edge of that green blot in the middle of Ohio. 5"! Edit: How the hell did the map change after the posting??? The snow amounts are totally different! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 [captain obvious] With that much inland penetration (and associated increased wind speeds), you would expect to lose some of the organized intensity associated with a concentrated single band event. [/captain obvious] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichMedic Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 UP gets demolished. Although for them, I'm sure this is old hat. Totally. But I might have to make a trip north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I am right on the edge of that green blot in the middle of Ohio. 5"! Edit: How the hell did the map change after the posting??? The snow amounts are totally different! lol...it donut holes franklin county..... right there proves it's a high confidence map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Totally. But I might have to make a trip north. He should have bought the big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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