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Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event? Part III


Chicago Storm

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Thicknesses and temps are starting to collapse pretty good right as the precip enters Chicago. May not be too bad for you guys further east. Out here to the west it looks like mainly rain with a little snow at the tail end.

It's a pretty rare looking situation, but does not scream snow, it screams quick rain blast and ultra rapid temp drop. Will be a lot more interesting if this trend keeps up as baroclinic hinted it may.

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Verbatim this new NAM run drops the heaviest snows of 8-14" from St. Cloud/NW MSP through northern Wisconsin and into the UP.

It's been a duluth kind of early winter. Most long range winter calls had things starting off well north and ****ing south as the winter progressed so i guess we're on target.

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It's a pretty rare looking situation, but does not scream snow, it screams quick rain blast and ultra rapid temp drop. Will be a lot more interesting if this trend keeps up as baroclinic hinted it may.

One thing we'll have to watch for if strengthening trends continue is the tendency for a tail of deform/trowel precip to hang back in the colder air somewhere south or southwest of the deepening low.

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Positive feedback cyclogenesis looking even more likely now. If the NAM southern stream shortwave intensity is true combined with a continued trend for more low level cold air...the intensity trend may actually continue still beyond this run.

Do you feel Duluth will expand the WSW up this way on the north shore? Thanks.

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I'm officially throwing in the towel on the first storm. Gonna try and see if we can form an secondary storm along the Apps with the additional jet energy rounding the base of the H5 trough. Climo is working against me, but I'll I got left is hope anyway.

definitely more juice at the trough base than 18z... but thru 60 no real signs of a low forming yet

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I think the only thing that would save Southern Wisconsin/Northern Illinois from the NAM setup as far as snow goes, is if the back end of the deformation zone is extended & Vigorous as it passes to the East. I've seen it happen a few times with these type of systems.

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