MadTown Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 any chance this thing still gives southern wi a decent snow, or are we in the clear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Thicknesses and temps are starting to collapse pretty good right as the precip enters Chicago. May not be too bad for you guys further east. Out here to the west it looks like mainly rain with a little snow at the tail end. It's a pretty rare looking situation, but does not scream snow, it screams quick rain blast and ultra rapid temp drop. Will be a lot more interesting if this trend keeps up as baroclinic hinted it may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Weird, I'm on NCEP looking at the small 500 mb images and much of the 534 contour appears to be missing at 36 hours (north of the Lakes). I got the same thing. Strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Verbatim this new NAM run drops the heaviest snows of 8-14" from St. Cloud/NW MSP through northern Wisconsin and into the UP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 flash freeze is quickly becoming the big threat for chicago. and post frontal snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 NAM developing 55 knot low level winds pretty damn close to the surface over southeastern MN into WI. Amazing. Blizzard looking more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 there's plenty of room for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Verbatim this new NAM run drops the heaviest snows of 8-14" from St. Cloud/NW MSP through northern Wisconsin and into the UP. It's been a duluth kind of early winter. Most long range winter calls had things starting off well north and ****ing south as the winter progressed so i guess we're on target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 and post frontal snow 1/4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 It's a pretty rare looking situation, but does not scream snow, it screams quick rain blast and ultra rapid temp drop. Will be a lot more interesting if this trend keeps up as baroclinic hinted it may. One thing we'll have to watch for if strengthening trends continue is the tendency for a tail of deform/trowel precip to hang back in the colder air somewhere south or southwest of the deepening low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Positive feedback cyclogenesis looking even more likely now. If the NAM southern stream shortwave intensity is true combined with a continued trend for more low level cold air...the intensity trend may actually continue still beyond this run. Do you feel Duluth will expand the WSW up this way on the north shore? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 1/4" About as much as tonight if the NAM is right. Just enough to replenish some of what was melted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 1/4" Dusting at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Just east of GRB at 54. Sweet spot is the western U.P. and northwestern WI, so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I was hoping for an epic Bears game in a heavy snow or blizzard Sunday. Right now it looks like there may be peeks of sun between the periods of windblown flurries LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I'm officially throwing in the towel on the first storm. Gonna try and see if we can form an secondary storm along the Apps with the additional jet energy rounding the base of the H5 trough. Climo is working against me, but I'll I got left is hope anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 NAM developing 55 knot low level winds pretty damn close to the surface over southeastern MN into WI. Amazing. Blizzard looking more likely. pretty deep DGZ in that sounding as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I'm officially throwing in the towel on the first storm. Gonna try and see if we can form an secondary storm along the Apps with the additional jet energy rounding the base of the H5 trough. Climo is working against me, but I'll I got left is hope anyway. nam really is speeding up things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I'm officially throwing in the towel on the first storm. Gonna try and see if we can form an secondary storm along the Apps with the additional jet energy rounding the base of the H5 trough. Climo is working against me, but I'll I got left is hope anyway. definitely more juice at the trough base than 18z... but thru 60 no real signs of a low forming yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I think the only thing that would save Southern Wisconsin/Northern Illinois from the NAM setup as far as snow goes, is if the back end of the deformation zone is extended & Vigorous as it passes to the East. I've seen it happen a few times with these type of systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 nam really is speeding up things Cold air coming in faster and faster for us with ample moisture still around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Alek getting fingered at 60 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 definitely more juice at the trough base than 18z... but thru 60 no real signs of a low forming yet wow hr 66, theres you low, looks beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 nam really is speeding up things I'm not sure the NAM's going to show it, but there's certainly potential for rapid deepening of that low over DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 wow hr 66, theres you low, looks beautiful looks like a nice cmh to pit hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 nam really is speeding up things we need that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Talk about a waste of a good vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 looks like a nice cmh to pit hit yea with that darker shades right through me and close to you. wow unreal how things are shaping up. now we need the other models to follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 wow hr 66, theres you low, looks beautiful with LES coming down lake michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Definetely looking like we will not see the heaviest snow in southeast minnesota but it does look like we could see some really interesting weather if the NAM comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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