Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Take 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 recap: dartboard graphics are being issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I'd like to thank all my supporters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 To recap: NAM/GFS/GFS Ens/GEM are all to an extent north, UKIE is south. Onto the Euro in 30-40 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Current status: Optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Current status: Optimistic I am stepping off the ledge until the king comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 To recap: NAM/GFS/GFS Ens/GEM are all to an extent north, UKIE is south. Onto the Euro in 30-40 mins. Again, no. At least not as far north as the NAM/GFS/GGEM. North of the UKIE though. And you can throw the JMA into the UKIE camp. And wow, three threads for the same storm. That's gotta be a MW/GL record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Hell of a trowal on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I'd like to thank all my supporters... I would also like to take this time to thank my supporters: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Hell of a trowal on the GGEM. Indeed You know the funny thing is, all these models do something different, yet they all to some extent make sense. Oh to be a NWS forecaster in the Midwest today would be a nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Hell of a trowal on the GGEM. One of the few signals that has been popping up pretty consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Current status: Optimistic In comparison to 6z, yeah, I am too. Although I would have preferred the GGEM to not come all the way up to the MI border with its storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I would also like to take this time to thank my supporters: I second that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Again, no. At least not as far north as the NAM/GFS/GGEM. North of the UKIE though. And you can throw the JMA into the UKIE camp. And wow, a three threads for the same storm. That's gotta be a MW/GL record. I've enjoyed it so far, as frustrating as it has been to decipher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Indeed You know the funny thing is, all these models do something different, yet they all to some extent make sense. Oh to be a NWS forecaster in the Midwest today would be a nightmare. Yeah, Chicago, MKX, DVN AFD's were all throwing there hands up in the air, This won't be somewhat clear till Tomorrow Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 UKMET? British trash.. JMA? Is that a real model? GFS for the WIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 UKMET? British trash.. JMA? Is that a real model? GFS for the WIN don't make me resort to model verification scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHWxWatcher Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 At the moment (11:00 AFD), ILN says nothing no one didn't already know, with a nod to the past though. THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM...WHICH MED RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING. AFTER YESTERDAYS CONSENSUS ON A SOUTHERN TRACK...ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS TOOK A STRONG SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH WITH TODAYS RUNS...SUGGESTING MOSTLY A RAIN MAKER FOR THIS AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE DRAMATIC SWINGS IN THE MODEL FORECASTS ILLUSTRATE THE LARGER-THAN-USUAL UNPREDICTABILITY OF THIS SYSTEM. IN THESE CASES...CHASING MODEL TRENDS IS FUTILE...AS A SYSTEM WITH SUCH LIMITED PREDICTABILITY COULD EASILY TAKE A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN TOMORROWS MODEL RUNS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE CHANCES OF BOTH RAIN AND SNOW UNTIL THIS SYSTEM GETS BETTER RESOLVED IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. WITH THIS SAID...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MODELS SETTLING ON THE MORE NORTHWARD SOLUTION GIVEN TELECONNECTIONS AND HISTORY OF SIMILAR OCCLUDING SYSTEMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A local met just on the news explained both tracks for our area (North versus South) and figures the north to win out, giving us "maybe a bit of snow". It's turning into a civil war version of model runs here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Yeah, Chicago, MKX, DVN AFD's were all throwing there hands up in the air, This won't be somewhat clear till Tomorrow Night. In fact, this morning's 12z raobs hardly even sniffed the energy that will become this system. Not a single height fall greater than 10 or 20 meters in western Canada. We seem to be converging towards a solution, but there are still many more questions than answers at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Seems a lot of GEFS members like the southern low solution, or at least a dual low/inverted sfc trough idea, rather than the single GL low: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 So the EURO will lay it out on the table... It'll probably show even more snow for me and even less snow for everyone else :0 BowMe better be on his medication...Saukville already has his rubber boots on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 In fact, this morning's 12z raobs hardly even sniffed the energy that will become this system. Not a single height fall greater than 10 or 20 meters in western Canada. We seem to be converging towards a solution, but there are still many more questions than answers at this point. How much can that help? Are you saying the entire vort at h5 in the pacific is just extrapolated by the models right now? I just don't know enough about where they get there data without metars and soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I wonder if LSE will just go ahead and issue blizzard warnings this afternoon :) ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Daddy, how's the snow with the clipper? That looks to be moving this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Its snowing here now... my driveway is covered now, but not that deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Hell of a trowal on the GGEM. Kind of a n00b here on winter weather forecasting, but how do you locate a TROWAL, whats maps to use etc..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Euro, 12 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 So the EURO will lay it out on the table... It'll probably show even more snow for me and even less snow for everyone else :0 BowMe better be on his medication...Saukville already has his rubber boots on. Hey now...I'm only 150 miles west of you! Local mets here are already calling for a possible blizzard this weekend. Kinda gutsy..But both the 12Z NAM and GFS look quite sexy atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 How much can that help? Are you saying the entire vort at h5 in the pacific is just extrapolated by the models right now? I just don't know enough about where they get there data without metars and soundings. In essence the models are always "extrapolating" features. The u/a network is used a correction to reality once the model has initialized. So there has been little, if any, correction applied to the dominant energy (could be higher or lower heights than modeled, stronger or weaker jet, etc.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 12z ECMWF: 42hrs: 1004MB SLP just SE Of Sioux Falls. Snow across C. Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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