prinsburg_wx Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Awesome, thanks. Looks like you tweaked your maps a little? Yeah, been bored the last couple of months with the non eventful wx around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 this is going to be full of awesomeness come tomorrow night and weds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Well the current NAM WRF-NMM has been place since 2006 with a number of significant tweaks over the years. This is basically the first "major" upgrade and is basically a new model. In general it has been much better than the current NAM in terms of synoptics, but I haven't evaluated much beyond that. But that is big news since the current NAM could rarely even get that right. It seems to have a cold bias, at least from what I've seen using the NAM WRF-NMM MOS and the NAM NMM-B MOS - who knows though. The 54hr are only 06 & 18Z but here's the 18Z 54hr slp & 500 Man I LOVE your maps! I don't know why, but I do..haha Back to the thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 4 km NAM total QPF from 06Z run.Also of note, the new NAM is live at 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 2 inches of wind driven cold rain is some serious tv watching weather. marine forcast has waves building to 18 feet Wed night just off Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 12z NAM at 42 hours. We're possibly fighting p-type issues in LAF if this is 2 months later...but still a sweet looking image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 12z NAM at 42 hours. We're possibly fighting p-type issues in LAF if this is 2 months later...but still a sweet looking image. man that's a nice looking track/storm, just a month later and p-types would be interesting. 12z NAM has a pretty wicked band for a period on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 man that's a nice looking track/storm, just a month later and p-types would be interesting. 12z NAM has a pretty wicked band for a period on the backside. Dynamic cooling FTW. But yeah, the backside precip/band looks very nice. 12z NAM has 3.05" total for LAF. 1.11" of it in a 6 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 2 inches of wind driven cold rain is some serious tv watching weather. marine forcast has waves building to 18 feet Wed night just off Chicago. LOT zone forecast for Cook county has gusts up to 55 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Fine time for the LOT radar to get an upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 LOT zone forecast for Cook county has gusts up to 55 mph. Nice, might have to take a walk down to montrose harbor tomorrow evening if thigs are going off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 12z NAM has some serious wind potential around northeast IL/northwest IN. A good 12-15 hours of 925 mb winds of 50-60 kts. Unclear how much of this may mix down but even some heavier showers may be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 12z NAM has some serious wind potential around northeast IL/northwest IN. A good 12-15 hours of 925 mb winds of 50-60 kts. Unclear how much of this may mix down but even some heavier showers may be enough. Looks like any lake enhanced shower activity should have no problem producing gusts to 50. 12z GFS pretty wet for extreme NE Illinois as well now. First real storm in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 12z RGEM at 0z Thursday. Can't tell if that's a 1 or a 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Looks like any lake enhanced shower activity should have no problem producing gusts to 50. 12z GFS pretty wet for extreme NE Illinois as well now. First real storm in a long time. Should be fun. Taking a closer look at the NAM and it's suggesting mixing to about 900 mb near the lake all of Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 12z NAM has some serious wind potential around northeast IL/northwest IN. A good 12-15 hours of 925 mb winds of 50-60 kts. Unclear how much of this may mix down but even some heavier showers may be enough. Ya pretty impressive, was just looking at that. ugh why can't it be December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Interesting to watch this system nudge a tad west by the models on the past 8-10 runs or so. The heaviest QPF was originally progged near Pittsburgh and now through In/Mich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Ya pretty impressive, was just looking at that. ugh why can't it be December? I hear ya but this particular setup with the tropical interaction probably wouldn't happen in winter. Curious to see how LOT will handle the wind potential...whether they go with a large wind advisory or restrict it to the lakeshore areas. I think areas near the shore will flirt with high wind warning criteria. Best chance to capture that at a reporting site will probably be GYY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 I hear ya but this particular setup with the tropical interaction probably wouldn't happen in winter. Curious to see how LOT will handle the wind potential...whether they go with a large wind advisory or restrict it to the lakeshore areas. I think areas near the shore will flirt with high wind warning criteria. Best chance to capture that at a reporting site will probably be GYY. I've mentioned it before when we've had threads on dream scenarios, but I think something similar to this is possible into November when it's possible enough cold air would be available for a rare snow event. Getting OT of course. Thinking LOT goes with advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Fairly decent spread in total QPF numbers for LAF. NAM around 3.00", GFS around 1.50", and the last couple of runs of the Euro have been 2.00"-ish. Steady light rain has commenced here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 I've mentioned it before when we've had threads on dream scenarios, but I think something similar to this is possible into November when it's possible enough cold air would be available for a rare snow event. Getting OT of course. Thinking LOT goes with advisories. It's happened out east more than once so no reason it couldn't happen closer to home. Maybe it has and we don't know about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Not in our area but the "snow hurricane" of 1804 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow_Hurricane_of_1804 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Here is a vorticity map you do not see often. This is from http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_0012_foreign_models.htm . Thought I give you all a different look here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Got a beautiful cloud deck in Springfield, OH and a very cold outflow breeze ahead of a storm. Temps were only in the mid 50's, then dropped into the 40's. Pea size hail was reported about 10 mins north of here, got a couple claps of thunder. Pic quality isn't the greatest, taken with iPhone 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 great shots, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Gino just issued a High Wind Watch for Chicago and lakeshore counties for wind gusts of 60mph likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Gino just issued a High Wind Watch for Chicago and lakeshore counties for wind gusts of 60mph likely. lakeshore flood warning as well, waves building to 22 feet ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PMCDT THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM CDT THURSDAY. * WAVES...WAVES WILL BUILD TO 12 TO 16 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUILDING FURTHER TO 17 TO 22 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 15 FEET BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF AREAS NEAR THE LAKE...LIKELY WORSE THAN WHAT WAS SEEN WITH THE LATE SEPTEMBER STORM A FEW WEEKS AGO. WAVES COULD RESULT IN FLOODING ALONG THE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE PORTIONS OF LAKE SHORE DRIVE IN CHICAGO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Apparently, the clouds I saw in the pictures above were Undulatus Asperatus. Not too much is known about these from what I can tell...except they seem to form after storms have past. I have attached a radar grab with an X where the clouds were and an arrow showing the direction they were traveling. I wonder if the fact that we were surrounded by cells had something to do with the formation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Apparently, the clouds I saw in the pictures above were Undulatus Asperatus. Not too much is known about these from what I can tell...except they seem to form after storms have past. I have attached a radar grab with an X where the clouds were and an arrow showing the direction they were traveling. I wonder if the fact that we were surrounded by cells had something to do with the formation. I believe I've seen them before as well, hopefully we'll get a met to chime in later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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