snowstormcanuck Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Weren't the models showing this storm in PA/NY several days ago, maybe the seasonal NW trend is back, this low center may end up thru central MI or near Milwaukee in the end.... D7-10 I think the models had the lpc going through the northern lakes and a svr wx threat for a lot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 D7-10 I think the models had the lpc going through the northern lakes and a svr wx threat for a lot of us. Yeah, it started well to the west, where it looked like the western half of the Great Lakes would get the highest impact, to going well east (and somewhat south), and now it's trending back in between the previous two solutions. It still has a way to go until the low tracks near Milwaukee or Chicago, though (I think). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Weren't the models showing this storm in PA/NY several days ago, maybe the seasonal NW trend is back, this low center may end up thru central MI or near Milwaukee in the end.... Back on the 11th, the Euro had the closest idea...if you want to call it that. GFS was taking it over Green Bay. La la land...but the 12z Euro deepens this thing fairly decently. Track goes from S IN to OH to just east of DTW...going from 1008 to sub 996 in the process. 0z GFS has a 996mb sfc low near GRB. Sorry Angry but I couldn't pass this post up. Et tu Sparty? Yup, this one is dead. Really turning into a dry month. Won't matter thermal profiles aloft are gonna screw us. Even if we manage to get enough precip. Angry is right. This one is dead in the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Back on the 11th, the Euro had the closest idea...if you want to call it that. GFS was taking it over Green Bay. Sorry Angry but I couldn't pass this post up. Et tu Sparty? Toss me into the mix since I thought it was dead in the water too. Tropical activity came to the rescue as well as a much more rapid breakdown of the Canadian Vortex. Funny thing is is this doesn't resemble the storm at all from when we started tracking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 jeez, talk about weenie suicides...good to know they are everywhere and not just mby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 18, 2011 Author Share Posted October 18, 2011 Back on the 11th, the Euro had the closest idea...if you want to call it that. GFS was taking it over Green Bay. Sorry Angry but I couldn't pass this post up. Et tu Sparty? Well it happens.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 jeez, talk about weenie suicides...good to know they are everywhere and not just mby! Ha, there were no weenie suicides, just folks putting the nail into the coffin until this beast took on a completely different form and transformed into hybrid Gulf Low/EC Low/Apps Runner all in one. I have never seen such a different synoptic configuration like this storm has undergone in a very long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Toss me into the mix since I thought it was dead in the water too. Tropical activity came to the rescue as well as a much more rapid breakdown of the Canadian Vortex. Funny thing is is this doesn't resemble the storm at all from when we started tracking it. Absolutely (to the bolded). Well it happens.... I was just kidding around. Trust me I'll cancel about 3-4 LAF snows this upcoming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Ha, there were no weenie suicides, just folks putting the nail into the coffin until this beast took on a completely different form and transformed into hybrid Gulf Low/EC Low/Apps Runner all in one. I have never seen such a different synoptic configuration like this storm has undergone in a very long time. this is a beast...probably beastly enough to call off work for me on Wednesday...missing a day of pay sucks, but having dry undergarments rocks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 And NWOH... but I'm pretty sure I'm the only one in this region. We are awaiting the same fate here in Findlay as well appsrunner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 18, 2011 Author Share Posted October 18, 2011 These Fall Witches are a mariners nightmare. I would put money on it that the St Clair River will be a parking lot of 700ft+ Lake Freighters seeking safe harbor. The Fitz is still fresh in the memory for the old timers I hear. THE LULL IN THE WINDS WILL BE BRIEF AS THE NEXT STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR LAKE HURON BUT WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINE EXPIRE BEFORE ISSUING ANY NEW WATCHES. EXPECTING WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST 45 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WE MAY EVEN BE CLOSE TO STORM FORCE GUSTS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 These Fall Witches are a mariners nightmare. I would put money on it that the St Clair River will be a parking lot of 700ft+ Lake Freighters seeking safe harbor. The Fitz is still fresh in the memory for the old timers I hear. THE LULL IN THE WINDS WILL BE BRIEF AS THE NEXT STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR LAKE HURON BUT WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINE EXPIRE BEFORE ISSUING ANY NEW WATCHES. EXPECTING WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST 45 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WE MAY EVEN BE CLOSE TO STORM FORCE GUSTS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC. I hope we get dry slotted LOL Then it wont make me feel so bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 HPC seems bullish... Time to invest in a boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Through 24 hours the 0z NAM is slightly NW of the 12z run. This includes the precip shield. Might we see an even stronger solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Actually definitely further west (and perhaps north) but not as strong, seemingly about 5 mb weaker comparing same intervals on both the 0z and 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 0z NAM has it peaking at ~980 mb at 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 It is the NAM, but an impressive areal coverage of 3"+ amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 impressive low-level theta-e regime into this sucker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 The countdown begins. The 06Z run will be the last ever for the current NAM! Time for it to be junked and replaced. The new NAM rolls out at 12Z tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 The countdown begins. The 06Z run will be the last ever for the current NAM! Time for it to be junked and replaced. The new NAM rolls out at 12Z tomorrow morning. Has the parallel (soon to be op) version been outperforming the current version? I haven't been paying close attention. How long has this current NAM been in service? There's definitely been a shift west with the latest NAM regarding this storm. Even this far west it looks like we'll get in on some light rain and strong winds now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 There's definitely been a shift west with the latest NAM regarding this storm. Even this far west it looks like we'll get in on some light rain and strong winds now. Ya northeast IL gets ALOT of rain now where the previous run didn't have so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Has the parallel (soon to be op) version been outperforming the current version? I haven't been paying close attention. How long has this current NAM been in service? There's definitely been a shift west with the latest NAM regarding this storm. Even this far west it looks like we'll get in on some light rain and strong winds now. Well the current NAM WRF-NMM has been place since 2006 with a number of significant tweaks over the years. This is basically the first "major" upgrade and is basically a new model. In general it has been much better than the current NAM in terms of synoptics, but I haven't evaluated much beyond that. But that is big news since the current NAM could rarely even get that right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Well the current NAM WRF-NMM has been place since 2006 with a number of significant tweaks over the years. This is basically the first "major" upgrade and is basically a new model. In general it has been much better than the current NAM in terms of synoptics, but I haven't evaluated much beyond that. But that is big news since the current NAM could rarely even get that right. I guess we'll get a really good feel for the strengths and weaknesses of it over the coming months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 I guess we'll get a really good feel for the strengths and weaknesses of it over the coming months. Ya we should coun't how many times we here "well its the new NAM" during winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 GFS came in a bit W but a tick weaker. RGEM went berserk. I am still not settling on any one solution. This system itself is extremely sensitive to how fast that tropical system kicks out and how far ahead it gets along the EC. Tiny differences seem to result in multiple millibar fluctuations which is typical with a beast like this. Through 48 hrs the RGEM is already down to 984, 10 mb's stronger than the GFS and 6mb's stronger than the NAM at the same time frame. Tracking the GOM tropical system tomorrow will be pretty key in knowing better how this plays out. Prinsburg, still have your RGEM plots from last year? Do you have the 54 hr plots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 GFS came in a bit W but a tick weaker. RGEM went berserk. I am still not settling on any one solution. This system itself is extremely sensitive to how fast that tropical system kicks out and how far ahead it gets along the EC. Tiny differences seem to result in multiple millibar fluctuations which is typical with a beast like this. Through 48 hrs the RGEM is already down to 984, 10 mb's stronger than the GFS and 6mb's stronger than the NAM at the same time frame. Tracking the GOM tropical system tomorrow will be pretty key in knowing better how this plays out. Prinsburg, still have your RGEM plots from last year? Do you have the 54 hr plots? The 54hr are only 06 & 18Z but here's the 18Z 54hr slp & 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 GFS came in a bit W but a tick weaker. RGEM went berserk. I am still not settling on any one solution. This system itself is extremely sensitive to how fast that tropical system kicks out and how far ahead it gets along the EC. Tiny differences seem to result in multiple millibar fluctuations which is typical with a beast like this. Through 48 hrs the RGEM is already down to 984, 10 mb's stronger than the GFS and 6mb's stronger than the NAM at the same time frame. Tracking the GOM tropical system tomorrow will be pretty key in knowing better how this plays out. Prinsburg, still have your RGEM plots from last year? Do you have the 54 hr plots? I'd almost bet money on the RGEM going sub 980 with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 The 54hr are only 06 & 18Z but here's the 18Z 54hr slp & 500 Awesome, thanks. Looks like you tweaked your maps a little? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 GFS came in a bit W but a tick weaker. RGEM went berserk. I am still not settling on any one solution. This system itself is extremely sensitive to how fast that tropical system kicks out and how far ahead it gets along the EC. Tiny differences seem to result in multiple millibar fluctuations which is typical with a beast like this. Through 48 hrs the RGEM is already down to 984, 10 mb's stronger than the GFS and 6mb's stronger than the NAM at the same time frame. Tracking the GOM tropical system tomorrow will be pretty key in knowing better how this plays out. one of the many reasons why I love meteorology, tough forecasting. Get neck deep in the data and analyze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 I'd almost bet money on the RGEM going sub 980 with this. Yeah it is classic RGEM going ballistic at the later period of its run. Being at 984 already, I would tend to agree that it has quite a bit of ways to go before it reaches its peak (in that current simulation). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.