Hoosier Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 The Oct 1989 storm is one of the events on the CIPS analog list. Entire list here: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/COLD/stats.php?reg=MV&model=GFS212&fhr=F060&flg= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 The Oct 1989 storm is one of the events on the CIPS analog list. Entire list here: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/COLD/stats.php?reg=MV&model=GFS212&fhr=F060&flg= From GRR.. Southwest Lower Michigan Weather History The Weather History for October 19th 10/19/1989 Four to five inches of snow falls across Lower Michigan as a record early season snowfall causes power outages and travel delays. Total here was 4.3" which had been the greatest October snowfall record Till Oct 2006 which dumped 6.3" on Oct 12/13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 From GRR.. Total here was 4.3" which had been the greatest October snowfall record Till Oct 2006 which dumped 6.3" on Oct 12/13th. I posted this in the general October thread awhile ago, but might as well again. Here's the dailies for LAF from Oct 11-30, 1989. That storm was literally a blind squirrel finding a nut...in an otherwise torch-filled month. Oct 11, 1989 76.0 37.0 0 0 0 Oct 12, 1989 80.0 51.0 0 0 0 Oct 13, 1989 84.0 47.0 0 0 0 Oct 14, 1989 85.0 56.0 0 0 0 Oct 15, 1989 82.0 59.0 0 0 0 Oct 16, 1989 79.0 51.0 0.03 0 0 Oct 17, 1989 51.0 43.0 0.66 0 0 Oct 18, 1989 44.0 37.0 0 0 0 Oct 19, 1989 38.0 31.0 0.36 4.2 0.005 Oct 20, 1989 39.0 33.0 0.23 2.5 2 Oct 21, 1989 58.0 34.0 0 0 0.005 Oct 22, 1989 65.0 30.0 0 0 0 Oct 23, 1989 73.0 47.0 0 0 0 Oct 24, 1989 77.0 46.0 0 0 0 Oct 25, 1989 77.0 52.0 0 0 0 Oct 26, 1989 74.0 47.0 0 0 0 Oct 27, 1989 76.0 47.0 0 0 0 Oct 28, 1989 74.0 44.0 0 0 0 Oct 29, 1989 75.0 46.0 0 0 0 Oct 30, 1989 75.0 48.0 0 0 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 The 18z NAM comes damn close to if not producing flakes around here into nw IN thursday afternoon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 I always use caution with "off" runs (6z & 18z) Heres the 12z NAM...Just picture perfect! Our first powerhouse system of Fall 2011 !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 The AFD/ DTX afternoon sums up what we all know...Either way this will be a great storm to track. Can't ever underestimate the marine influence of the great lake heaters. EVEN IF A COLDER/STRONGER/MORE PHASED SOLUTION VERIFIES...STILL NOT COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW (COLDEST SOLUTIONS INDICATING 1000 TO 850 MB THICKNESSES OF 1315 M)...ESPECIALLY WITH THE VERY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS COMING OFF THE RELATIVELY MILD WATERS OF LAKE HURON. GOOD CHANCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL EXCEED 1 INCH WITH THE LONG...PERSISTENT FORCING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Trent or any others familiar with LES, how will this storm affect lake temps for LES later in the season? THis is only my 2nd season living in a snowbelt and am very anxious for the season to begin! Hopefully it doesn't cool the lake down too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Trent or any others familiar with LES, how will this storm affect lake temps for LES later in the season? THis is only my 2nd season living in a snowbelt and am very anxious for the season to begin! Hopefully it doesn't cool the lake down too much. This storm combined with strong winds will easily knock lake temps 3 degrees. Lake Erie has been running a good 2-3 degrees below average for most of the fall already, so this will only make the cool anomalies more pronounced. You can thank persistent storms/wave action/clouds that have substantially cooled the surface despite this fall being generally warmer than average. Looking long term, it's still a bit too early to tell. Any early cold spells will mean huge amounts of LES as ice really doesn't start to form until Christmas and Delta T's are still impressive in Nov/Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 give me this in a month and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 18z NAM p-type at 72hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 It's oh so bad it isn't a few degrees cooler, this storm will take one of my best winter storm tracks... maybe if I get lucky wed night I will get a snowflake or 2 but not likely...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 give me this in a month and a half. I swear we better get something like this later this year, its such a perfect track for SEMI. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 give me this in a month and a half. If this was a month and a half from now I'd be heading to the station for a case of beer to drown my sorrows lmao! Gonna be a fun one to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 F*ck...why cant this be a month later lol. Hopefully the Winter offers some of these babies. We've had an active storm track over the past few weeks, most of them being lake cutters with alot of deep troughs cutting through across the region..seems typical for a La Nina. Hopefully this is a sign of whats to come. Surly the GFS and ECMWF show many more storms following this, all of which offer the heaviest precip. across the region and are lake cutters . Still thats some high @ss qpf....proly a good 1-3 inches of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 This storm combined with strong winds will easily knock lake temps 3 degrees. Lake Erie has been running a good 2-3 degrees below average for most of the fall already, so this will only make the cool anomalies more pronounced. You can thank persistent storms/wave action/clouds that have substantially cooled the surface despite this fall being generally warmer than average. Looking long term, it's still a bit too early to tell. Any early cold spells will mean huge amounts of LES as ice really doesn't start to form until Christmas and Delta T's are still impressive in Nov/Dec. Thanks for the explanation! I figured the waters were running cooler with all of the cloud cover. Either way, I think we will have a fun winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 18z NAM p-type at 72hr Extracted text for IKK 66 10/20 12Z 38 34 302 19 0.03 0.00 540 542 -2.6 -18.7 1002 100 017OVC311 0.0 13.1 69 10/20 15Z 37 34 286 20 0.08 0.00 540 541 -3.1 -17.1 1002 100 -RA 011OVC230 0.0 8.8 72 10/20 18Z 36 33 275 20 0.15 0.00 541 541 -3.4 -15.2 1000 100 SN 007OVC340 0.9 4.3 75 10/20 21Z 37 34 277 22 0.26 0.00 542 543 -3.2 -15.6 1001 100 RA 009OVC349 0.3 3.6 78 10/21 00Z 38 35 285 23 0.26 0.00 544 548 -2.5 -14.5 1004 100 RA 014OVC359 0.0 5.0 EDIT: LAF too 69 10/20 15Z 39 35 278 20 0.02 0.00 539 541 -3.0 -18.4 1001 100 -RA 015OVC270 0.0 11.2 72 10/20 18Z 39 35 267 22 0.05 0.00 540 541 -3.6 -16.9 1000 100 -RA 013OVC292 0.0 8.6 75 10/20 21Z 36 33 258 22 0.14 0.00 539 541 -3.8 -15.6 1002 100 SN 008OVC345 1.3 5.9 78 10/21 00Z 38 35 269 22 0.22 0.00 542 546 -3.0 -15.6 1005 100 RA 014OVC368 0.0 4.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Though to be fair, it's the 10:1 ratio chart. But why not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Extracted text for IKK 66 10/20 12Z 38 34 302 19 0.03 0.00 540 542 -2.6 -18.7 1002 100 017OVC311 0.0 13.1 69 10/20 15Z 37 34 286 20 0.08 0.00 540 541 -3.1 -17.1 1002 100 -RA 011OVC230 0.0 8.8 72 10/20 18Z 36 33 275 20 0.15 0.00 541 541 -3.4 -15.2 1000 100 SN 007OVC340 0.9 4.3 75 10/20 21Z 37 34 277 22 0.26 0.00 542 543 -3.2 -15.6 1001 100 RA 009OVC349 0.3 3.6 78 10/21 00Z 38 35 285 23 0.26 0.00 544 548 -2.5 -14.5 1004 100 RA 014OVC359 0.0 5.0 EDIT: LAF too 69 10/20 15Z 39 35 278 20 0.02 0.00 539 541 -3.0 -18.4 1001 100 -RA 015OVC270 0.0 11.2 72 10/20 18Z 39 35 267 22 0.05 0.00 540 541 -3.6 -16.9 1000 100 -RA 013OVC292 0.0 8.6 75 10/20 21Z 36 33 258 22 0.14 0.00 539 541 -3.8 -15.6 1002 100 SN 008OVC345 1.3 5.9 78 10/21 00Z 38 35 269 22 0.22 0.00 542 546 -3.0 -15.6 1005 100 RA 014OVC368 0.0 4.8 Looks like the freezing level/wbz drops down to about 1800 feet here. Coldest air aloft moves in during the daytime which is not as favorable but all I'm taking from these runs at this point is that there may be wet snow (at least mixed in) somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 I always use caution with "off" runs (6z & 18z) Heres the 12z NAM...Just picture perfect! Our first powerhouse system of Fall 2011 !! In this type of situation the off-hour runs need no "caution", especially since the main feature of intererest will ingest no UA obs (the Invest in the GOM). It is a bit of an old wives tale that off hour runs are junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 HPC seems bullish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Something tells were gonna see some grade-A weather porn from this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 I swear we better get something like this later this year, its such a perfect track for SEMI. lol And NWOH... but I'm pretty sure I'm the only one in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Weren't the models showing this storm in PA/NY several days ago, maybe the seasonal NW trend is back, this low center may end up thru central MI or near Milwaukee in the end.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Something tells were gonna see some grade-A weather porn from this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Also, liking the hodos and potential moisture return I'm seeing over Florida tomorrow. and wow at baro's images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Though to be fair, it's the 10:1 ratio chart. But why not... haha leave it to you to give me a good laugh with this map and the text output lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 The crazy thing about this storm is a good amount of the WCB will be displaced away from the center of the PV. Were this to go completely negative with a slower moving tropical plume/low level PV anomaly and better inland trajectories, this would be an epic bomb in the 960 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 F*ck...why cant this be a month later lol. Hopefully the Winter offers some of these babies. We've had an active storm track over the past few weeks, most of them being lake cutters with alot of deep troughs cutting through across the region..seems typical for a La Nina. Hopefully this is a sign of whats to come. Surly the GFS and ECMWF show many more storms following this, all of which offer the heaviest precip. across the region and are lake cutters . Still thats some high @ss qpf....proly a good 1-3 inches of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Looks like the freezing level/wbz drops down to about 1800 feet here. Coldest air aloft moves in during the daytime which is not as favorable but all I'm taking from these runs at this point is that there may be wet snow (at least mixed in) somewhere. Yep, looks that way. Everything else above that, for a time, would be supportive. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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