A-L-E-K Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 waves over southern lake michigan are going to be sick with a prolonged period of 25+knot winds with a good fetch and best of all there won't be a few hundred yards of shore ice, so i'll actually be able to watch the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 12z NAM at 69 hours. Beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 6z NAM...this is just nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 6z NAM...this is just nuts You are late to the game (see previous posts) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 NAM parallel run. Sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 It is funny because if this was a full blown winter storm this board would be nuts. We never saw a storm similar to this all winter long last year. They all tracked up the coast...I don't believe we had one inland tracker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 It is funny because if this was a full blown winter storm this board would be nuts. We never saw a storm similar to this all winter long last year. They all tracked up the coast...I don't believe we had one inland tracker. When you are excited we all are, I haven't looked at weather models much for the last month. In the last 4 days I have looked at every run of the major 4 models. Btw that Para Nam run looks absolutely amazing. The best part about all of this, the trend for the last few days is stronger, we could really be looking at one of the better storms this year unfolding in 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 When you are excited we all are, I haven't looked at weather models much for the last month. In the last 4 days I have looked at every run of the major 4 models. Btw that Para Nam run looks absolutely amazing. The best part about all of this, the trend for the last few days is stronger, we could really be looking at one of the better storms this year unfolding in 48 hours. Yeah I am pretty excited. I think the first major fall/winter storm is always very exciting. It just happens that this will potentially be a storm track we haven't seen in two seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Yeah I am pretty excited. I think the first major fall/winter storm is always very exciting. It just happens that this will potentially be a storm track we haven't seen in two seasons. Lets hope its a harbinger of how this season will play out, gulf lows are always big jackpots for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 You are late to the game (see previous posts) Oh i know lol knew the 12z run was out but had to post that image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 The one positive to this storm, is that one can watch it unfold over the next 48 hours without worrying about track/snowfall accums/critical thicknesses. A 980 low just to the east of CLE; I can't wait to see the 20-30 footers on Lake Erie in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Oh i know lol knew the 12z run was out but had to post that image. Well I meant we had already posted 6Z stuff earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 The one positive to this storm, is that one can watch it unfold over the next 48 hours without worrying about track/snowfall accums/critical thicknesses. A 980 low just to the east of CLE; I can't wait to see the 20-30 footers on Lake Erie in a few days. Yeah good point. My hope this year is we won't have that problem anyways...at least folks bickering about snow totals, etc. It is bound to happen to a degree, and I understand that, but I hope everyone can get along this winter without the complaining/bickering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Yeah good point. My hope this year is we won't have that problem anyways...at least folks bickering about snow totals, etc. It is bound to happen to a degree, and I understand that, but I hope everyone can get along this winter without the complaining/bickering. Good luck with that. 12z RGEM at 12z Wednesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Yeah good point. My hope this year is we won't have that problem anyways...at least folks bickering about snow totals, etc. It is bound to happen to a degree, and I understand that, but I hope everyone can get along this winter without the complaining/bickering. I can relate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Animate the new 12z RGEM here. You can tell this thing is ready to explode at 48hrs... http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Why does mother nature have to tease us by bringing a bomb a month too early. Very rare as it has been said to have a storm take this track and be this strong. Usually a miller b occurs and the bomb is on the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 serious PWAT action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 already an awesome WV image with the digging s/w trof over CO and you can really see the strong mid and upper level jet at the base of it in northern NM where the dry air is located. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 Why does mother nature have to tease us by bringing a bomb a month too early. Very rare as it has been said to have a storm take this track and be this strong. Usually a miller b occurs and the bomb is on the EC. I think Dec 1st 1974 was like this current system. some serious feeding from the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 This setup appears to have some loose similarities to an event exactly 22 years before...the October 19, 1989 storm. One key difference is that there is less cold air to be had in this case but that doesn't mean there can't be some wet snow somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Its awesome that we finally have the potential to see a nice bomb here, but oh man, I know when Wednesday comes, and I'm walking to class in the wind driven rain with windchill in the lower 40s....I'm gonna be pretty upset that it isn't a month later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 A little early to pin down the details but latest runs would suggest some 50-60 mph gust potential across the region. Areas near the lakes may have the best shot of realizing the high winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 If we can manage to get the column to cool ,wet flakes mixing in shouldn't be an issue. I'm optimistic of seeing flakes at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Flakes are gonna be hard, surface and near surface temps looks pretty warm, if we do see flakes in the region i imagine it will be super localized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 12z GFS seems to be on board... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 At least I can test out how well the barometer and anemometer work. And the rain guage. NAM/GFS/ECM showing 3-5" here... if only this was winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 At least I can test out how well the barometer and anemometer work. And the rain guage. NAM/GFS/ECM showing 3-5" here... if only this was winter I wish it seemed realistic to get systems with 3" of QPF in winter. We rarely see them in the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 12z Euro has a fairly large area getting 2"+ of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Because the 18z NAM looks like a similar solution (further west and slightly colder storm) it will probably give areas around here 2-3" of snow again. I know better than to take that bait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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