baroclinic_instability Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 NAM precipitable water loop showing the GOM tropical system and the large plume of high PWATS transitioning to the EC Gulf Stream. Massive moist latent heat release in the low levels is what is enhancing the WAA regime, and it is what is responsible for the coastal transitioning to the parent upper low rapid development. NAM was the only numerical model suggesting tropical development...globals weren't as excited about the GOM development. Kudos to the NAM being right on occasion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 If a anything it is a shame the trough wasn't more negative tilt. That massive moisture feed is mainly off coast...a negative tilt trough would have been more apt to advect large values of low level moisture farther inland...which would have allowed for rapid and intense deepening. This storm could have been truly bombastic. As it is will still be a fun storm to watch...and even then there may be some areas that get some surprise heavy snows in portions MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 If a anything it is a shame the trough wasn't more negative tilt. That massive moisture feed is mainly off coast...a negative tilt trough would have been more apt to advect large values of low level moisture farther inland...which would have allowed for rapid and intense deepening. This storm could have been truly bombastic. As it is will still be a fun storm to watch...and even then there may be some areas that get some surprise heavy snows in portions MI. Still have a little bit of time to change this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Absolute classic example of sutcliffe-peterson self development. Watch the influence of the low level WAA advection regime, which is enhanced by the low level latent heat release, force upper level height rises in the development of a rapid shortwave ridge axis at the end of the loop. Classic QG chi height tendency where low level WAA decreasing with height results in upper level height rises. Also a good example of Eady model of development following PV dynamics. Loop is 250 hpa vorticity/heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Euro just came in stronger, albeit only marginally. It is really down the middle right now...having issues determining whether the parent low or the coastal low will dominate. Gosh this will be a beauty to watch develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 06Z NAM is going ballistic. Yeah it is the NAM, but it may have a better handle on the tropical plume in the GOM and the role it will play in rapid development of the low. We will see, but it shows the potential. Pure sickness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 You can actually see the little speck of accums over S Central MI If a anything it is a shame the trough wasn't more negative tilt. That massive moisture feed is mainly off coast...a negative tilt trough would have been more apt to advect large values of low level moisture farther inland...which would have allowed for rapid and intense deepening. This storm could have been truly bombastic. As it is will still be a fun storm to watch...and even then there may be some areas that get some surprise heavy snows in portions MI. :o 06Z NAM is going ballistic. Yeah it is the NAM, but it may have a better handle on the tropical plume in the GOM and the role it will play in rapid development of the low. We will see, but it shows the potential. Pure sickness. WOW.. I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 06Z NAM is going ballistic. Yeah it is the NAM, but it may have a better handle on the tropical plume in the GOM and the role it will play in rapid development of the low. We will see, but it shows the potential. Pure sickness. When I said give it time I didn't expect it to occur in the very next model run Now lets repeat this same storm in about 2 month and 20 degrees cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 :o WOW.. I see it. Crazy stuff. Someone may get some snow with that type of rapid height falls. We will have to see, I am not going to bite on the super amped NAM yet, but it has some potential since it may have a better handling on the tropical plume/convective development which will enhance the synoptic scale development. Whoever finds themselves on the edge of the defo band may get a surprise in the form of heavy wet snow. Even then, the potential for an awesome cyclone is there with plenty of wind and heavy rain. 06Z NAM has support from the 00/06Z parallel NAM which will be replacing the current NAM on Tuesday. Goes sub 980. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 When I said give it time I didn't expect it to occur in the very next model run Now lets repeat this same storm in about 2 month and 20 degrees cooler. Now it will likely just oscillate back and forth. Even the weakest runs are pretty impressive. This is going to be a fun one to track since small errors in observation of the tropical plume as well as the incoming jet streak off the west coast will have massive implications on the final solution. Also model developed convective precip will have massive implications on the strength of the low level PV anomaly and the amount of inland moisture advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Crazy stuff. Someone may get some snow with that type of rapid height falls. We will have to see, I am not going to bite on the super amped NAM yet, but it has some potential since it may have a better handling on the tropical plume/convective development which will enhance the synoptic scale development. Whoever finds themselves on the edge of the defo band may get a surprise in the form of heavy wet snow. Even then, the potential for an awesome cyclone is there with plenty of wind and heavy rain. 06Z NAM has support from the 00/06Z parallel NAM which will be replacing the current NAM on Tuesday. Goes sub 980. Yeah the snow would be nice but heck i'll just take the bomb with the heavy duty rains and high winds. Been a while since i have seen one of these. Tracking it/images will be very sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Yeah the snow would be nice but heck i'll just take the bomb with the heavy duty rains and high winds. Been a while since i have seen one of these. Tracking it/images will be very sweet. My gut says to lean more towards the non-hydro models over the globals mainly due to the massive and insane progged tropical plume off the GOM. The NAM will have an edge on deepening due to its enhanced convective scheme since there will be a significant amount of deep convection with that type of low level moisture transport. That amount of latent heating will play a huge role in the low level PV anomaly early on in the life cycle of this storm and the subsequent inland low level moisture transport off the Gulf Stream. But I agree, a nice cyclone will be fun to track for once. I had my share of boring summer weather and the death ridge. Time for some synoptic bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Now it will likely just oscillate back and forth. Even the weakest runs are pretty impressive. This is going to be a fun one to track since small errors in observation of the tropical plume as well as the incoming jet streak off the west coast will have massive implications on the final solution. Also model developed convective precip will have massive implications on the strength of the low level PV anomaly and the amount of inland moisture advection. Just looking at the wind progs from 850 to Surface, this storm will have some big time wind potential. The waves on the Great Lakes are going to be huge with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Just looking at the wind progs from 850 to Surface, this storm will have some big time wind potential. The waves on the Great Lakes are going to be huge with this one. Indeed, if the NAM scenario occurs that will be an epic wave maker, especially Lake Michigan with that type of fetch. Current CIMMS PWATS image. This will be worth keeping an eye on as well as the surface low development in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 06Z GFS continues to trend towards the NAM solution and came in slower and much farther W/bent back then the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 06Z GFS continues to trend towards the NAM solution and came in slower and much farther W/bent back then the previous run. That is one hell of a TROWAL on the GFS. Obviously its still a couple days away but one might argue that the QPF projections might be underdone especially if a TROWAL of this magnitude is realized and it having a tropical moisture feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 lurking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Is the energy from this low pressure coming from the gulf or the EC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Grasping at straws, but at the end of the 6z NAM it gets sorta close to frozen precip here. Key word, grasping. Regardless, looks like a fun system in the works for the eastern half of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Is the energy from this low pressure coming from the gulf or the EC? Both actually. But good question. The forecast for the tropical plume is for it to move over the gulf stream, but there will be significant latent heat fluxes/sensible heat fluxes along the gulf stream even before the plume across the GOM moves towards the gulf stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Going to be a brutal couple of days along the lake front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Just some eye candy for you guys in Michigan, courtesy of the Euro and Wunderground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Just some eye candy for you guys in Michigan, courtesy of the Euro and Wunderground Ha, I had no idea Wunderground had Euro snowfall data/maps. Knew they had the model and lots of parameters of course. That's awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Ha, I had no idea Wunderground had Euro snowfall data/maps. Knew they had the model and lots of parameters of course. That's awesome. I just noticed it late last week, don't know how long they've had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 I just noticed it late last week, don't know how long they've had it. Very cool, thanks for posting it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Side note for those watching lake temps as we head into winter, this is the type of system that will have a monster impact, before and after drops will be huge. And omg at snow chances in the region, wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Wow, didn't know Wunderground had snowfall for Euro, sweet. Verbatim around 1" here. Just some eye candy for you guys in Michigan, courtesy of the Euro and Wunderground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 The 12Z NAM is a tick faster and inline with global guidance, but it still looks sick. It is really advecting that tropical plume northward a bit faster, and it has a better connection with the low level diabatic latent heat release induced low level PV anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 I think I'm going to hate the NAM, for trying to sucker me in. 06z has 2-3" of snow a county west of here. Notice it is the unreliable off-hour NAM runs that have significant accumulation of snow somewhere, first in SC Lower Michigan and now here. I don't buy it at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 The 12Z NAM is going to be close. It has nearly fully captured the tropical plume/low. If it does and goes negative tilt quick enough it will be a true bomb run. If it is too fast with the tropical plume/low it will result in a PV induced low which will be oriented ahead of the main parent low and it will be a tad weaker than previous runs. Either way this storm is going to be beastly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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