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October 16th-19th Storm.


SpartyOn

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NAM precipitable water loop showing the GOM tropical system and the large plume of high PWATS transitioning to the EC Gulf Stream. Massive moist latent heat release in the low levels is what is enhancing the WAA regime, and it is what is responsible for the coastal transitioning to the parent upper low rapid development. NAM was the only numerical model suggesting tropical development...globals weren't as excited about the GOM development. Kudos to the NAM being right on occasion.

bff3f472774e90aa3f8af17c4aa2961a.gif

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If a anything it is a shame the trough wasn't more negative tilt. That massive moisture feed is mainly off coast...a negative tilt trough would have been more apt to advect large values of low level moisture farther inland...which would have allowed for rapid and intense deepening. This storm could have been truly bombastic. As it is will still be a fun storm to watch...and even then there may be some areas that get some surprise heavy snows in portions MI.

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If a anything it is a shame the trough wasn't more negative tilt. That massive moisture feed is mainly off coast...a negative tilt trough would have been more apt to advect large values of low level moisture farther inland...which would have allowed for rapid and intense deepening. This storm could have been truly bombastic. As it is will still be a fun storm to watch...and even then there may be some areas that get some surprise heavy snows in portions MI.

Still have a little bit of time to change this

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Absolute classic example of sutcliffe-peterson self development. Watch the influence of the low level WAA advection regime, which is enhanced by the low level latent heat release, force upper level height rises in the development of a rapid shortwave ridge axis at the end of the loop.

Classic QG chi height tendency where low level WAA decreasing with height results in upper level height rises. Also a good example of Eady model of development following PV dynamics.

Loop is 250 hpa vorticity/heights.

a723d9a3237309e3d54f74c5d6ca62b9.gif

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You can actually see the little speck of accums over S Central MI

CONUS_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif

:o

If a anything it is a shame the trough wasn't more negative tilt. That massive moisture feed is mainly off coast...a negative tilt trough would have been more apt to advect large values of low level moisture farther inland...which would have allowed for rapid and intense deepening. This storm could have been truly bombastic. As it is will still be a fun storm to watch...and even then there may be some areas that get some surprise heavy snows in portions MI.

:o :o

06Z NAM is going ballistic. Yeah it is the NAM, but it may have a better handle on the tropical plume in the GOM and the role it will play in rapid development of the low. We will see, but it shows the potential. Pure sickness.

WOW.. I see it. :popcorn:

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06Z NAM is going ballistic. Yeah it is the NAM, but it may have a better handle on the tropical plume in the GOM and the role it will play in rapid development of the low. We will see, but it shows the potential. Pure sickness.

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When I said give it time I didn't expect it to occur in the very next model run :P Now lets repeat this same storm in about 2 month and 20 degrees cooler. :)

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:o

:o :o

WOW.. I see it. :popcorn:

Crazy stuff. Someone may get some snow with that type of rapid height falls. We will have to see, I am not going to bite on the super amped NAM yet, but it has some potential since it may have a better handling on the tropical plume/convective development which will enhance the synoptic scale development. Whoever finds themselves on the edge of the defo band may get a surprise in the form of heavy wet snow. Even then, the potential for an awesome cyclone is there with plenty of wind and heavy rain. 06Z NAM has support from the 00/06Z parallel NAM which will be replacing the current NAM on Tuesday.

Goes sub 980.

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When I said give it time I didn't expect it to occur in the very next model run :P Now lets repeat this same storm in about 2 month and 20 degrees cooler. :)

Now it will likely just oscillate back and forth. Even the weakest runs are pretty impressive. This is going to be a fun one to track since small errors in observation of the tropical plume as well as the incoming jet streak off the west coast will have massive implications on the final solution. Also model developed convective precip will have massive implications on the strength of the low level PV anomaly and the amount of inland moisture advection.

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Crazy stuff. Someone may get some snow with that type of rapid height falls. We will have to see, I am not going to bite on the super amped NAM yet, but it has some potential since it may have a better handling on the tropical plume/convective development which will enhance the synoptic scale development. Whoever finds themselves on the edge of the defo band may get a surprise in the form of heavy wet snow. Even then, the potential for an awesome cyclone is there with plenty of wind and heavy rain. 06Z NAM has support from the 00/06Z parallel NAM which will be replacing the current NAM on Tuesday.

Goes sub 980.

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Yeah the snow would be nice but heck i'll just take the bomb with the heavy duty rains and high winds. Been a while since i have seen one of these. Tracking it/images will be very sweet. :thumbsup:

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Yeah the snow would be nice but heck i'll just take the bomb with the heavy duty rains and high winds. Been a while since i have seen one of these. Tracking it/images will be very sweet. :thumbsup:

My gut says to lean more towards the non-hydro models over the globals mainly due to the massive and insane progged tropical plume off the GOM. The NAM will have an edge on deepening due to its enhanced convective scheme since there will be a significant amount of deep convection with that type of low level moisture transport. That amount of latent heating will play a huge role in the low level PV anomaly early on in the life cycle of this storm and the subsequent inland low level moisture transport off the Gulf Stream.

But I agree, a nice cyclone will be fun to track for once. I had my share of boring summer weather and the death ridge. Time for some synoptic bombs.

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Now it will likely just oscillate back and forth. Even the weakest runs are pretty impressive. This is going to be a fun one to track since small errors in observation of the tropical plume as well as the incoming jet streak off the west coast will have massive implications on the final solution. Also model developed convective precip will have massive implications on the strength of the low level PV anomaly and the amount of inland moisture advection.

Just looking at the wind progs from 850 to Surface, this storm will have some big time wind potential. The waves on the Great Lakes are going to be huge with this one.

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Just looking at the wind progs from 850 to Surface, this storm will have some big time wind potential. The waves on the Great Lakes are going to be huge with this one.

Indeed, if the NAM scenario occurs that will be an epic wave maker, especially Lake Michigan with that type of fetch.

Current CIMMS PWATS image. This will be worth keeping an eye on as well as the surface low development in the GOM.

post-999-0-74630500-1318843221.gif

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06Z GFS continues to trend towards the NAM solution and came in slower and much farther W/bent back then the previous run.

That is one hell of a TROWAL on the GFS. Obviously its still a couple days away but one might argue that the QPF projections might be underdone especially if a TROWAL of this magnitude is realized and it having a tropical moisture feed.

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Is the energy from this low pressure coming from the gulf or the EC?

Both actually. But good question. The forecast for the tropical plume is for it to move over the gulf stream, but there will be significant latent heat fluxes/sensible heat fluxes along the gulf stream even before the plume across the GOM moves towards the gulf stream.

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The 12Z NAM is going to be close. It has nearly fully captured the tropical plume/low. If it does and goes negative tilt quick enough it will be a true bomb run. If it is too fast with the tropical plume/low it will result in a PV induced low which will be oriented ahead of the main parent low and it will be a tad weaker than previous runs. Either way this storm is going to be beastly.

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