snowstormcanuck Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Joe Bastardi has apparently been calling for quite th windstorm for midweek, pointing to the UK MEt to back up his point. Could people be taken by surprise due to EC playing it down? I wouldn't say EC is playing it down. It's still 3 days out and the models have been inconsistent. It'll be interesting to see if that tropical disturbance over the eastern Gulf gets entrained into the long wave trough. Could be a serious rain producer for some, along with the wind threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Hopefully we see a storm like this in the Winter season. Thus far the ECMWF/GFS indicate quite the rain storm across the region but the surface is too warm for any snow to stick let alone fall. But....the storms following this one seem to be Lake Cutters too GFS shows some snow cover though no more than a inch; http://policlimate.com/weather/current/gfs_snow_usa.html The GFS shows a widespread 1-3 inch rainfall, wow. http://policlimate.com/weather/current/gfs_precip.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 We will have to see how the TROWAL develops and how the coastal develops, but there are generally two possible solutions on the table. The EC/NAM/UK (more so the UK/NAM) are essentially WAA dominant and more or less eject the coastal/WAA regime ahead of the main parent low whereas the GFS is more progressive and more dominant with the coastal wave. Don't underestimate the moist latent processes at work here reinforcing the WAA regime and the rapid breakdown of the Canadian vortex. Here I actually would not completely discount the strong solution NAM with a dominant parent upper low. NAM is getting dangerously close to mixing in heavy wet snow on the outskirts of the deformation band and outside of the TROWAL zone. It is weird how this storm has progressed as it is essentially a completely different potential solution from what this thread was initially started for, but the end result may be similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 What a waste of a storm track. That is a prime set up for SEMI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 What a waste of a storm track. That is a prime set up for SEMI. NAM looks like a 1 in 25-50 year type setup for monstrous snowfall. Too bad it's October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Took a look at the soundings for Lansing on BUFKIT using the 18z NAM profile. Right at 84 hours it turns KLAN over to +SN with a bl temp of 2.4C. KFWA is all rain through 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 NAM looks like a 1 in 25-50 year type setup for monstrous snowfall. Too bad it's October. QPF: 2.00"+ around Detroit. Easily 15"+ Snow event... What a dagger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 You can actually see the little speck of accums over S Central MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Very interesting. I know it's very early, but this is starting to look somewhat interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 18Z NAM even starting to shove decent QPF up near this way. Interesting scenario SE of here, wish it were a month later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Wow. What a system. This will probably be the storm that puts CLE over the all time precip record as we are only 1.46" from having the wettest year on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 nw trend kicks in and the low tracks over flint..... No matter what happens, its finally nice to have something interesting to watch again weatherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 850s and 2m temps still do not impress for flakes..Got rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 I think a few weeks further down the road would make all the difference for this storm, not a month or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 850s and 2m temps still do not impress for flakes..Got rain? You sound disappointed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 You sound disappointed? Damn straight skippy! No SEMI Weenie/complainer here...But I have hunch this storm in guidance land is making many (you?) blush. Thats right Godspeed to me as I check Bufkit and droll over soundings for nothing...I must sound excited for Winter or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Damn straight skippy! No SEMI Weenie/complainer here...But I have hunch this storm in guidance land is making many (you?) blush. Thats right Godspeed to me as I check Bufkit and droll over soundings for nothing...I must sound excited for Winter or something. Honestly, I don't follow any of this. I get the sense though that you've been offended, which wasn't my intention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 Honestly, I don't follow any of this. I get the sense though that you've been offended, which wasn't my intention. It was humors sarcasim..I was by no means offended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 It was humors sarcasim..I was by no means offended. ok. It was obviously over my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Watching the 0z NAM mslp plots come in, I like pretending each of the 850 isotherms represents a value 10c colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Watching the 0z NAM mslp plots come in, I like pretending each of the 850 isotherms represents a value 10c colder. Haha. Glad I'm not the only one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 00z NAM looks like a beast with the midweek storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Looks like a LES signal for NE IL on the NAM. Rain of course in reality, but why stop imagining... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 00z NAM looks like a beast with the midweek storm Looks like a 2.00"+ 6 hr QPF bullseye over NE OH at 78. Very narrow corridor of +RA though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Looks like a 2.00"+ 6 hr QPF bullseye over NE OH at 78. Very narrow corridor of +RA though. @84hr NAM has this low bottoming out ROUND 984 mb which isn't the strongest of storms that we've seen but still pretty strong. This low is coming up the apps hopefully a sign for the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 At least on the bright side of this, there is something to finally track instead of boring weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 It has changed majorly. 3 days ago, it was another upper midwest storm. Yeah completely, it is a hybrid EC coastal/Apps Runner/Great Lakes storm. A weird looking storm, but it will be fun to track either way. GFS came much more in line with the NAM/EC/UK and has a dominant parent upper low instead of a dominant WAA advection regime and subsequent progressive storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Yeah completely, it is a hybrid EC coastal/Apps Runner/Great Lakes storm. A weird looking storm, but it will be fun to track either way. GFS came much more in line with the NAM/EC/UK and has a dominant parent upper low instead of a dominant WAA advection regime and subsequent progressive storm. should look awesome on 24hr WV loop during the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Looks like a LES signal for NE IL on the NAM. Rain of course in reality, but why stop imagining... At first glance snow popped in my head but then reality sank in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 should look awesome on 24hr WV loop during the week. U of Washington has some nice 2 hr loops But yeah, this will have a great occluded/bent back representation with a well defined comma/defo band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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