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October 16th-19th Storm.


SpartyOn

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We still have a ways to go. Can't remember the last rime we had accumulation in mid October.

Ottawa, Ontario saw accumulating snow on October 30th last year giving the city a white Halloween. It looksl ike they may get some wet snow with this system next week. I'm not expecting much, if anything, in Toronto. I may as well get used to that. No matter how cold and snowy toronto is this upcoming winter, it won't compare to what I experienced in Ottawa these past 6 years.

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Usually November is our starting point. Although I remember a white Halloween in the early 90s.

I can also remember a light snow mix during Halloween in Central IL in the late '90s. By the way...if you look on a certain FB fan page, I'm sure that you'll find someone placing analogs of early snows trying to tell the "kiddies" that a monster snowstorm will happen. :rolleyes:

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I can also remember a light snow mix during Halloween in Central IL in the late '90s. By the way...if you look on a certain FB fan page, I'm sure that you'll find someone placing analogs of early snows trying to tell the "kiddies" that a monster snowstorm will happen. :rolleyes:

LMAO.... I can only guess who. Hype sucks!

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Hmm the GFS shows a few Lake Cutters through the next 10-15 days...could it be a sign of whats to come :rolleyes: lol. This current storm seems like a typical Nina like storm and next week's storm should be interesting. We have seen a consistent SE Ridge over the past 1-2 weeks and it looks to continue through the next 1-2 weeks though much weaker than it has been. At this point its best to focus our attention on the Pacific and even the Atlantic for signs including the PDO and ENSO.

Focusing on the GOA we can see it resembles 2008 and 2007 quite nicely and notice how the following Winters turned out

PDO remains highly negative currently.

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October 12th -13th 2006 Lake Orion had 3" of Snow.

Mt Orion....easy explanation.

Im not trusting any guidance ATM...Things are still weird for the period following this system. I would love to photograph the bright fall leaves with a towering anvil in the foreground...I still don't want to part with severe season. Ready for Winter but will miss the Summer fun of T-Storms and high dews.

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Mt Orion....easy explanation.

Im not trusting any guidance ATM...Things are still weird for the period following this system. I would love to photograph the bright fall leaves with a towering anvil in the foreground...I still don't want to part with severe season. Ready for Winter but will miss the Summer fun of T-Storms and high dews.

Im moving out of Mt Orion.

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LMAO.... I can only guess who. Hype sucks!

I'm not even talking about Henry. Granted, it's someone who has his own "FB Page" and post numerous analogs that don't match on Henry's page. Any person can look up in google the information he puts out and it's sad that he has a following.

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I'm not even talking about Henry. Granted, it's someone who has his own "FB Page" and post numerous analogs that don't match on Henry's page. Any person can look up in google the information he puts out and it's sad that he has a following.

Enlighten me... Private message me this link. I always need a good laugh. Is it the Juice Head republican?

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I do have to agree with some of the other posters...Only if this was December..ORD-DTW gets a decent hit. Impressed by this current run. Appears that this will be the first powerhouse system this Fall. Expecting many more as I was floored to see the recent data on our La Nina!

12zgfs500mbHGHTNA126.gif

12zgfsp24126.gif

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Hmm the GFS shows a few Lake Cutters through the next 10-15 days...could it be a sign of whats to come :rolleyes: lol. This current storm seems like a typical Nina like storm and next week's storm should be interesting. We have seen a consistent SE Ridge over the past 1-2 weeks and it looks to continue through the next 1-2 weeks though much weaker than it has been. At this point its best to focus our attention on the Pacific and even the Atlantic for signs including the PDO and ENSO.

Focusing on the GOA we can see it resembles 2008 and 2007 quite nicely and notice how the following Winters turned out

PDO remains highly negative currently.

What's the likelihood of the type of block that will occur? Do you think it will be a more east-based or west-based block?

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nice lapse rates could yield something exciting. Lakes still sitting in the mid-upper 50s to near 60. Someone could very well get some LES or LER. Doubtful but possible.

I'm seeing some very light QPF on the models late Tuesday and Wednesday in W Michigan. Maybe those include some LE flurries or snow showers?

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This threat had some slight potential in the medium range, but it was clear the models grossly underestimated the strength of the Canadian cyclone/vortex and its retrogression and overestimated the strength of the low amplitude wave on Sunday. These errors had a profound impact on the latitudinal push of cold air advection which influences the placement and strength of the baroclinic zone for the final wave on Mon/Tue and associated surface low across the OV. The combination of all three resulted in a more confluent low/mid level flow associated with the Canadian vortex (a squashing effect on the mid level height field), a more northerly displaced low level thermal gradient, and a much weaker and less amplified Mon/Tue wave. I think the biggest factor that kept me from getting overly excited was the deepening potential of the large Canadian cyclone and the fact it is common for models to underestimate such deepening (i.e., a persistent strengthening dprog/dt) when their is potential for a Gulf Stream enhanced thermal/moisture feed like there was with the currently deepening Canadian cyclone.

Current GFS forecast for the low amplitude wave on Sunday:

post-999-0-88831900-1318652505.png

The forecast 2.5 days ago:

post-999-0-55327000-1318652509.png

The current 850 forecast:

post-999-0-68881900-1318652513.png

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