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October 16th-19th Storm.


SpartyOn

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couple late reports

0100 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST CHICAGO                 41.88N 87.63W   
10/20/2011  M61.00 MPH       COOK               IL   PARK/FOREST SRVC 

DELAYED REPORT. RECORDED AT CHICAGO PARK DISTRICT OAK STREET BEACH WEATHER STATION. SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 54 MPH.  


0135 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NE CHICAGO            41.92N 87.57W   
10/20/2011  M64.00 MPH       LMZ741             IL   C-MAN STATION                   

DELAYED REPORT. 56 KNOT GUST RECORDED AT HARRISON-DEVER CRIB.  

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You know, I'm having my doubts about the pixel count method. It shows us being about the same as last year, but the FSU data does not bear that out, with about 1 percentage point less coverage this year than last (which is about a 15% difference in relative terms). Then again, that's for the 17th. We've gained a bit in the last few days, but enough to make up for the difference?

Looking around at some of the major sites this morning, it appears TOL has the lowest pressure reading that I've found thus far.

20 06:52 S 5 4.00 Fog/Mist OVC004 47 46 29.06 984.3

20 05:52 S 5 7.00 Overcast OVC004 47 46 29.05 983.9

20 04:52 S 9 5.00 Fog/Mist OVC004 48 47 29.05 983.7

20 03:52 W 6 10.00 Overcast OVC006 49 48 29.04 983.6

20 02:52 NW 8 8.00 Overcast OVC006 49 47 29.05 983.8

20 01:52 N 14 2.00 Fog/Mist OVC006 48 47 49 48 29.06 984.1

Yeah, I was at 983mb overnight too. Pretty deep system for around here.

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It looks like the max gust from VPZ will be 36 mph. I was all excited for 50+ mph gusts (which I'm sure the lakeshore got, I'm just surprised they tapered off so drastically over such a short distance).

Still though, it was enough to knock the power out for about 4 hours last night. It flickered about 4 times over the course of an hour, then the 4th time the generator never kicked in.

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It looks like the max gust from VPZ will be 36 mph. I was all excited for 50+ mph gusts (which I'm sure the lakeshore got, I'm just surprised they tapered off so drastically over such a short distance).

Still though, it was enough to knock the power out for about 4 hours last night. It flickered about 4 times over the course of an hour, then the 4th time the generator never kicked in.

Gary gusted to 54 mph on the last ob before they stopped reporting so I'm sure areas near the shore were pushing 60.

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Not too impressed with the new NAM. It overdid it on the surface winds over all of northern Illinois, and also had the precip too far west. The GFS and RGEM both kept us dry several runs before the event, and they ended up being correct.

Yeah I noted this too. NAM was too aggressive in wrapping the secondary jet axis around the main upper low when in reality the secondary began taking over around 9Z with the main low slowly beginning to track NE. The system really stalled immediately after occlusion, hence the NAM was off on both rainfall extent to the W as well as winds farther W. Noted, but the new NAM is still superior to the old. One storm shouldn't make opinion yet since all guidance will have some pretty bad performance on a storm basis.

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