SpartyOn Posted October 20, 2011 Author Share Posted October 20, 2011 You can't. No "one" model did best. Not to mention many aspects need to be considered...and it isn't even close to done yet. Track, intensity, rainfall totals, winds, etc all need to be considered. Already down to 986 per HPC. On pure deepening the RGEM will likely lead the way with its 980-981 it has suggested the last two days. NAM early on was down sub-980 then backed off. GFS was consistently 990+, but it was more consistent on placement of heavy qpf. Really can't pick a model "winner" here, especially not yet. fair enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 If I squint my eyes and look outside at the street light and it *looks* like snow...does that count? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 MOP has reported Unknow Precip earlier. I was outside at the time, and it was raining. Don't know what to think of that report. Mount Pleasant always does that, check out Bad Axe (KBAX) they have shown 'snow' multiple times over the evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 RQB, OEB, IRS, JYM and AMN are reporting IP. MOP, HYX, RNP and BAX are reporting -SN. Chance of any frozen precip actually being seen at those sites... 0.1% Thanks Joe. After seeing the BAX METAR, I looked and scratched my head...45 degrees and light snow in the thumb of MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Raining pretty good here and windy as well. Great october storm. Hopefully a sign for the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 If I squint my eyes and look outside at the street light and it *looks* like snow...does that count? I thought that too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Wicked line of torrential rain coming through in blinding sheets and strong wind gusts easily over 40mph, reminds me of a severe thunderstorm. Too bad BUF radar is out. EC radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Raining pretty good here and windy as well. Great october storm. Hopefully a sign for the winter 10,000 Hydro One customers without power right now. No idea what the Golden Horseshoe hydro company is, but TWN says numerous outages all up the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 This bad boy is starting to look like a proper cyclone. Gorgeous comma cloud and stretching defo band signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Nice to see you guys off to the east getting some action tonight. Been awhile since we've had a decent storm wrap up in the Lakes. We were grazed by a few showers earlier that totaled 0.02". Winds have been considerably less impressive than what the NAM had been advertising for this area over the last few days. I think the highest gusts have stayed at or below 25mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Have 1.10" here as of 1.00am EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Have 1.10" here as of 1.00am EDT. Knew I'd beat ya at some point 1.17" at 115am new update shortly Edit: up to 1.22" at 130am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Still under 0.50" rain here thus far, with a top wind gust of 30mph. Top gust still stands at 30mph. 0.38" of rain on the day and as a system total thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
an uncanny otter Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 2.4" here since yesterday evening. We really got nailed down here. I wonder if we'll get much more overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 2.98" here in Huntington so far as of 6:30AM. Northern IN is under a wind advisory for today and continued rain. Quite a change from strings of days of beautiful weather. It's gonna be raw today. Lovin' it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Looks like barometric pressure bottomed out at 983 here, A little over 2" of rain has fallen so far, at 2.13" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 1.93" storm total at LAF through 7AM. Highest gust so far of 35 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 0720 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E KENOSHA 42.58N 87.80W 10/19/2011 M61 MPH LMZ646 WI C-MAN STATION 720 PM DATA-WIND SPEED 49 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 61 MPH. SENSOR IS 63 FEET HIGH IN THE AIR. ***Note that is a pretty high wind sensor*** It's important to keep in mind (as is pointed out in this LSR) that the anemometer heights of the marine stations vary considerably and most are not actually 10m (33ft) winds (official surface wind height). Here are the peak gusts at the marine sites through around 6 am CDT, along with the height of the anemometer... Kenosha 53 kt 61.0 mph 19.5 m 64.4 ft Waukegan Harbor 51.1 kt 58.8 mph 9 m 29.7 ft Harrison Crib 54 kt 62.1 mph 25.9 m 85.5 ft Calumet Harbor 45.1kt 51.9 mph 9.1 m 30 ft Burns Harbor 48 kt 55.2 mph 10.1 m 33.3 ft Michigan City IN 54 kt 62.1 mph 21.3 m 70.3 ft South Haven MI 51 kt 58.7 mph 16.8 m 55.4 ft Saint Joseph Buoy 40.8 46.9 mph 2.5 m 8.3 ft Mid Lake South Buoy 44.7 kt 51.4 mph 5 m 16.5 ft A couple things to keep in mind. First, the higher the anemometer is above the official 10m height, the less the wind will be affected by friction and therefore the greater the speed will be. The height of the anemometer plays a MUCH big role in stable conditions obviously than now when the marine boundary layer is well mixed. Also, it's worth noting, that the mid-lake buoy anemometer height is now lower than how high waves are being reported (19.0 ft), so not only is the wind speed somewhat unrepresentative because the height is half the standard height of an anemometer, but now the waves are so high they are likely blocking the wind somewhat as well. By the way, here's a cool site where you can see all the ship obs around the lakes: http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/marobs/php/data.php?sta=3 Notice they are all "hiding" right now in bays and harbors and areas that are more protected from the wind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Looking around at some of the major sites this morning, it appears TOL has the lowest pressure reading that I've found thus far. 20 06:52 S 5 4.00 Fog/Mist OVC004 47 46 29.06 984.3 20 05:52 S 5 7.00 Overcast OVC004 47 46 29.05 983.9 20 04:52 S 9 5.00 Fog/Mist OVC004 48 47 29.05 983.7 20 03:52 W 6 10.00 Overcast OVC006 49 48 29.04 983.6 20 02:52 NW 8 8.00 Overcast OVC006 49 47 29.05 983.8 20 01:52 N 14 2.00 Fog/Mist OVC006 48 47 49 48 29.06 984.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 47 MPH gust on my rooftop anemometer last night with 1.58" of rain as of this morning. Sustained winds in excess of 30MPH for several hours last evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 2.1" IMBY. Definitely an over performer here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Storm totals through 8AM locally (CoCoRaHS observers and LAF). Lafayette 2.2 S: 2.40" Lafayette 0.5 S: 2.15" Lafayette 2.2 NE: 2.09" LAF: 1.93" West Lafayette 5.1 WSW: 1.83" Peak wind gust at LAF through 9AM: 37MPH at 7:33AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Pretty boring event here on all fronts, just a lot of light rain with 30 mph winds. My place probably gusted to 40 tops and i'm a few hundred feet from the water. The lack of heavier showers probably prevented some of the better gusts from mixing down. Really makes you appreciate just how insane the winds with the GHD storm were.....sooo much more intense that it's an insult to compare the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 1.61" of rain in Findlay in the last 24 hours. Light rain still falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Pretty boring event here on all fronts, just a lot of light rain with 30 mph winds. My place probably gusted to 40 tops and i'm a few hundred feet from the water. The lack of heavier showers probably prevented some of the better gusts from mixing down. Really makes you appreciate just how insane the winds with the GHD storm were.....sooo much more intense that it's an insult to compare the two. Rain with stratus clouds probably would not have helped the winds. MKX said as much in one of their discussions. The onset of a rain squall might, but overall I don't think rain aids winds as much as people discuss. I've heard both sides: that it helps and that it hinders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Here are some rainfall totals from Environment Canada. Pretty sharp gradient within the Greater Toronto Area, where the western parts (eg. Pearson Airport/YYZ) got more rain. AWCN11 CWTO 201403 CCA Corrected weather summary for all of Southern Ontario and the National Capital Region issued by Environment Canada At 10:02 AM EDT Thursday 20 October 2011. ------------------------------------------------------------- ==weather event discussion== ***corrected amount for Hamilton airport*** A low pressure system gave significant rainfall to much of southern and Southwestern Ontario Wednesday through this morning. Below are some unofficial storm total rainfall amounts as of 8 AM today. ------------------------------------------------------------- Location rainfall amount (mm) Hamilton mountain 78.1 Hamilton airport 68.4 Windsor 55.0 Harrow 54.0 Wiarton 51.8 Waterloo university 51.8 Toronto Pearson 48.4 Waterloo-Wellington 45.6 Barrie 44.0 Elora 43.5 Hanover 39.6 Goderich 35.3 Toronto Island 35.1 Mount Forest 34.7 Markham 31.4 Coldwater 31.0 Toronto downtown 29.9 Toronto Downsview 29.6 This weather summary contains preliminary information And may not constitute an official or final report. END/OSPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 2.85" of rain here at the office through 12z this morning. Not too shabby for a stratiform rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 2.03" in Waterloo almost all from all those small cells last night that each dropped around 5mm. That's a mission: success! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Here are some rainfall totals from Environment Canada. Pretty sharp gradient within the Greater Toronto Area, where the western parts (eg. Pearson Airport/YYZ) got more rain. AWCN11 CWTO 201403 CCA Corrected weather summary for all of Southern Ontario and the National Capital Region issued by Environment Canada At 10:02 AM EDT Thursday 20 October 2011. ------------------------------------------------------------- ==weather event discussion== ***corrected amount for Hamilton airport*** A low pressure system gave significant rainfall to much of southern and Southwestern Ontario Wednesday through this morning. Below are some unofficial storm total rainfall amounts as of 8 AM today. ------------------------------------------------------------- Location rainfall amount (mm) Hamilton mountain 78.1 Hamilton airport 68.4 Windsor 55.0 Harrow 54.0 Wiarton 51.8 Waterloo university 51.8 Toronto Pearson 48.4 Waterloo-Wellington 45.6 Barrie 44.0 Elora 43.5 Hanover 39.6 Goderich 35.3 Toronto Island 35.1 Mount Forest 34.7 Markham 31.4 Coldwater 31.0 Toronto downtown 29.9 Toronto Downsview 29.6 This weather summary contains preliminary information And may not constitute an official or final report. END/OSPC I can verify that Pearson number. I had a total of 1.73" (43.8mm) here, assuming we don't get a bit more from the backwash. A modest overperformer. I was with stebo's thinking with the general 1-1.5" number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Not too impressed with the new NAM. It overdid it on the surface winds over all of northern Illinois, and also had the precip too far west. The GFS and RGEM both kept us dry several runs before the event, and they ended up being correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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