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October 16th-19th Storm.


SpartyOn

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44 here now with gusts to 40 and some heavy rain about to move in from the lakeshore. I get a feeling the peak of the storm (when combining rain and wind) will be in the next 5 hours.

unlikely, the low and associated trowal are still maturing and pulling NW (currently in WV), the most intense conditions won't even start till after 0z

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unlikely, the low and associated trowal are still maturing and pulling NW (currently in WV), the most intense conditions won't even start till after 0z

I was thinking it was heading more north. I was reluctantly going along with MKX which suggests that High wind warning criteria will not be met. If they are, then you're right, it will probably be later. Otherwise, I'm thinking the winds will only increase about 5 mph or so at its peak.

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The epitome of the WCB feeding directly into the upper divergent jet. All strong storms have similar couplings. This lacks the deep, moist convection common in the major bombs (think good Nor'easters or Groundshog Day) where low static stability forces extreme pressure falls and forced ascent. April 15th blizzard was another classic example of DMC forcing extreme pressure falls where the DMC was fed directly into the upper jet exhaust.

post-999-0-55931200-1319057486.png

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For those that need a reminder of the above mentioned DMC forcing extreme pressure falls and rapid intensification where the DMC develops in a statically unstable WCB and rises through the divergent jet. The sickness aka the April 15th hotness.'

gosh those are pure weather porn..i saved the vis sat back in April, but that WV image is sweet.

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The epitome of the WCB feeding directly into the upper divergent jet. All strong storms have similar couplings. This lacks the deep, moist convection common in the major bombs (think good Nor'easters or Groundshog Day) where low static stability forces extreme pressure falls and forced ascent. April 15th blizzard was another classic example of DMC forcing extreme pressure falls where the DMC was fed directly into the upper jet exhaust.

can see it on vis sat too, pretty neat

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saginaw bay light gusting to 55knots already on the huron side.

and just to show the effect of the lake, i'm 15-20 miles inland depending on what direction your going and i'm gusting only into the low 30s so far. Will be interesting to see if i can get some higher gusts, 45plus, as the strongest winds move overhead later.

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It's funny how many customers are coming into work here talking about how we're going to get it bad with 60mph gusts and flooding out here in the suburbs.

That's always an issue, and the reason why people think the weather media hypes too much. They don't realize that many hazards and warnings are for localized areas, and any error in reporting compounds this issue. It also doesn't help if the office is bullish. I'm not talking about ORD. MKX has been too bullish a few times (like a Blizzard Warning last December for a storm that ended up delivering mostly rain, and that perpetuates the weather hype stereotype.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL  
510 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011     

.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON     
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.                
..REMARKS..    

1245 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 N CHICAGO             41.90N 87.63W   
10/19/2011                   COOK               IL   NEWSPAPER                       

WINDOWS BLOWN OUT OF THE 12TH FLOOR OF A BUILDING NEAR WABASH AND CHICAGO AVENUE. 
REPORT RELAYED FROM THE ONLINE TRIBUNE.  

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL  
510 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011     

.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON     
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.                
..REMARKS..    

1245 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 N CHICAGO             41.90N 87.63W   
10/19/2011                   COOK               IL   NEWSPAPER                       

WINDOWS BLOWN OUT OF THE 12TH FLOOR OF A BUILDING NEAR WABASH AND CHICAGO AVENUE. 
REPORT RELAYED FROM THE ONLINE TRIBUNE.  

Wow and we're just getting started

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That's always an issue, and the reason why people think the weather media hypes too much. They don't realize that many hazards and warnings are for localized areas.

I know, I just lol when people start coming in and complaining that it's not as bad as it was suppose to be...and I already had a few people say that.

By the way, it's LOT not ORD.

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