A-L-E-K Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 I expect some awesome video from you. best action looks to be after 0z, gonna be dark, not sure if it will be worth much, might have a better shot early tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 massive differences Why do I always have to be speaking of the system as a whole? I am talking about its effects in MHS (my home state). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 best action looks to be after 0z, gonna be dark, not sure if it will be worth much, might have a better shot early tomorrow morning. The crib already gusting to gusting to 40kt. I went bullish and said wouldn't be shocked at a 70mph gust there or at another offshore ob depending on the amount of mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Gary gusting to 39 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 The crib already gusting to gusting to 40mph, I went bullish and said wouldn't be shocked at a 70mph gust there or at another offshore ob depending on the amount of mixing. 40kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Gary gusting to 39 mph. heavier showers pushing west over the lake now, we'll see if things pick up with that action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 That looks to be some pretty hefty rain crossing L Michigan right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 40kts meant to say that lol fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 That looks to be some pretty hefty rain crossing L Michigan right now. looks like it's right on the edge of some deeper moisture pushing west http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s20/tran/tran.gif?1319045306702 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 The crib already gusting to gusting to 40kt. I went bullish and said wouldn't be shocked at a 70mph gust there or at another offshore ob depending on the amount of mixing. I was mentioning the same thing to Alek earlier this morning that the C-man site in IN on the Southern shore will probably have a gust >70. That spot always has some huge gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 I was mentioning the same thing to Alek earlier this morning that the C-man site in IN on the Southern shore will probably have a gust >70. That spot always has some huge gusts. The Michigan City bouy is already sustained at 47mph and gusting to 52mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 The Michigan City bouy is already sustained at 47mph and gusting to 52mph. Maybe gusts to 75mph might not be out of the question, would really be amazing if that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Maybe gusts to 75mph might not be out of the question, would really be amazing if that happened. I'm going to say top storm gust at any station tops out around 67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 The offshore stations should have no problem gusting over 60. Land stations I still think Gary has the best shot of cracking 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 The offshore stations should have no problem gusting over 60. Land stations I still think Gary has the best shot of cracking 60. I am going bolder and saying 70-75mph for offshore and for onshore 60-65mph. We are already getting some pretty good gusts and this storm is still maturing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 LOT has a new media briefing up, watching now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 I am going bolder and saying 70-75mph for offshore and for onshore 60-65mph. We are already getting some pretty good gusts and this storm is still maturing. Michigan City already gusting over 50 mph several hours before the strongest winds aloft is probably a sign to go bullish. If anyone tops 70 it will probably be them. I think Gary stops reporting obs after a certain time in the evening so we might not know what the gusts are like there at least initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 19, 2011 Author Share Posted October 19, 2011 Crazy amounts of wind driven rain here. Saginaw Bay and parts of the thumb are gonna get nailed latter today with some serious wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Michigan City already gusting over 50 mph several hours before the strongest winds aloft is probably a sign to go bullish. If anyone tops 70 it will probably be them. I think Gary stops reporting obs after a certain time in the evening so we might not know what the gusts are like there at least initially. Unless they lose power the auto sensors should pick up the winds nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Crazy amounts of wind driven rain here. Saginaw Bay and parts of the thumb are gonna get nailed latter today with some serious wind. Amazing little to no rain here in Northern Oakland. Yes agree Bay City is going to get huge wind gusts later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Amazing little to no rain here in Northern Oakland. Yes agree Bay City is going to get huge wind gusts later For once the heavy stuff is on the eastside right now. It does look like the band will pivot and the heavier amounts will be just to the NW of macomb. Either way a rare track for such a strong storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 heavier showers pushing west over the lake now, we'll see if things pick up with that action. I expect some bad ass video from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Weather pron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Weather pron. It's only going to get better too, btw what's your guesses with respect to max gusts both on/off shore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Conditions already pretty interesting. Looks like moderate rain will be prevalent over the next several hours, and gusts into the 30 mph range. They weren't expecting the heaviest winds until after 0z anyway. MKX talks about the center shifting east on the models, but the models don't have a good handle on the western extent of the rain, so I'm hesitant to rely on the models for placement of the low either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Probably a dumb/novice question but what is making this low pressure intensify so much where it is now. Yesterday it was out in the plains and the coverage of the rain was smaller and lighter. Is the low merging with a low from the gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 It's only going to get better too, btw what's your guesses with respect to max gusts both on/off shore? Max gust on the lake 67-72 MPH, on shore near the lake 55-62 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 New ob out of Gary has a 47 mph gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 great wv loop, watch the future defo/trowal get going right at the end as the low starts to take shape. http://www.weather.gov/sat_loop.php?image=wv&hours=24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Max gust on the lake 67-72 MPH, on shore near the lake 55-62 MPH. We aren't too far apart then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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