cyclone77 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Simulated IR pretend its January and awesome blog write-up, Baro. Just sick images! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 I think of this system as a dry run before the real deal. Basically a drill or a way of sharpening our tracking skills after a long vacation. Yeah I agree. This is the first time I've really dug into models since chase season. At least if there's a last minute shift no one will really get screwed in this case lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Man if this was snow Chicago would be getting ROCKED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 18, 2011 Author Share Posted October 18, 2011 Long live the NW trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 I think of this system as a dry run before the real deal. Basically a drill or a way of sharpening our tracking skills after a long vacation. Going to have to disagree with you here. Gorgeous all on its own. Snow doesn't need to be falling out of it for it to be sick and amazing. BRB while I go and clean up OT clusterfooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 18, 2011 Author Share Posted October 18, 2011 Going to have to disagree with you here. Gorgeous all on its own. Snow doesn't need to be falling out of it for it to be sick and amazing. BRB while I go and clean up OT clusterfooks. I'll give ya that...But it has been a while for some since the last model hunt and track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 SW Ontario could be the real screw zone on this one. The real screw zone is going to be the downsloping areas of PA/NY where the models are consistently painting a QPF minima. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Going to have to disagree with you here. Gorgeous all on its own. Snow doesn't need to be falling out of it for it to be sick and amazing. Remember, you're in the minority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 All I'm going to say is....beware of the dryslot. 18z guidance is trying to spit out 2-3" of rain here. I'd half that easily and tell my peeps in N OH/SE MI to do the same. Pivot point looks like it'll setup in NW IN/SW and C MI. That's were the QPF bullseye is probably going to be. Agreed. The dry slot could spare most of Eastern Ohio, especially with just a slightly westward nudge. I was hoping this would be the storm that would put Cleveland over the top for wettest year on record, but I'm not sure we can muster the 1.38" needed to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 I think of this system as a dry run before the real deal. Basically a drill or a way of sharpening our tracking skills after a long vacation. Indeed! And even tho rain and wind does nothing for me I can still appreciate the dynamics of the system and the excitement it brings to all that live for this stuff and its just as good reading to me as a winter storm thread. And like cyclone said nobody is really going to get screwed out of frozen precip so that's nice. I've never really been down to the lake front when LM is really angry so that could be interesting plus lake temps are always on my mind this time of yr so I'm hoping the storm can shave another few degrees off with the stirring of the waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Agreed. The dry slot could spare most of Eastern Ohio, especially with just a slightly westward nudge. I was hoping this would be the storm that would put Cleveland over the top for wettest year on record, but I'm not sure we can muster the 1.38" needed to do it. Well, look at the bright side. At least in the eastern Lakes we can stop playing the "what if" game. I don't care if this was the middle of January. With as deep and wrapped up as this storm is progged to become, and with a track across SE MI/Lk Huron, there is no chance this would be a significant snowstorm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 The real screw zone is going to be the downsloping areas of PA/NY where the models are consistently painting a QPF minima. Canuck, what's it looking like for us here in the Big Smoke? (aka Toronto) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Remember, you're in the minority. Yeah I know. If anything my goal here on americanwx is to show that weather is awesome every day, it doesn't need to be IMBY, snow, or supercells. Something amazing happens daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 plus lake temps are always on my mind this time of yr so I'm hoping the storm can shave another few degrees off with the stirring of the waters. Win/lose situation there. It could help you early in the season, but hurt you down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 I'm with BI, dynamic storms are always fun no matter what falls from the sky. Quick sidebar what is with the weird avatars from alek/bowme.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Canuck, what's it looking like for us here in the Big Smoke? (aka Toronto) We could get a decent soaking, but we're in kind of a dynamic col between the deformation zone association with the rapidly deeping low in the OV, and the plume of sub tropical moisture along the east coast. That's why I'm a bit skeptical of the models spitting out 2"+ of rain. I'd budget for about an inch, maybe a bit more. Wind may be the bigger factor, as we're going to have ENE winds from a strengthening gradient coming across the fetch of Lk Ontario. NAM is showing 30-40 knots right along the lk shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Quick sidebar what is with the weird avatars from alek/bowme.... Alek's avatars are always winners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Win/lose situation there. It could help you early in the season, but hurt you down the road. I'm all about it cooling off ASAP and could care less if ice is banked up half way to the eastern shores of LM later in winter. I'd love to see turtlecane go through a 1978-79 winter in Madison.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Indeed! And even tho rain and wind does nothing for me I can still appreciate the dynamics of the system and the excitement it brings to all that live for this stuff and its just as good reading to me as a winter storm thread. And like cyclone said nobody is really going to get screwed out of frozen precip so that's nice. I've never really been down to the lake front when LM is really angry so that could be interesting plus lake temps are always on my mind this time of yr so I'm hoping the storm can shave another few degrees off with the stirring of the waters. That's the spirit! Given the last two years had nice December storms inland with a mix of crap near the lake, it is important from my perspective as well that the lake cool off ASAP. It's not like we get a lot of LES anyway, so the warm waters from a lake effect perspective is kind of a moot point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 All I'm going to say is....beware of the dryslot. 18z guidance is trying to spit out 2-3" of rain here. I'd half that easily and tell my peeps in N OH/SE MI to do the same. Pivot point looks like it'll setup in NW IN/SW and C MI. That's were the QPF bullseye is probably going to be. Thats what Im thinking. SEMI is so dry slotted. Thank God this happen in October and not December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 That's the spirit! Given the last two years had nice December storms inland with a mix of crap near the lake, it is important from my perspective as well that the lake cool off ASAP. It's not like we get a lot of LES anyway, so the warm waters from a lake effect perspective is kind of a moot point. Also gotta love the ice cold lake breeze in spring while its boiling away from the lake.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Thats what Im thinking. SEMI is so dry slotted. Thank God this happen in October and not December Don't get me wrong. i think this should be a good storm. But I'd be wary of some of the excessive amounts being depicted because of that slotting potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Also gotta love the ice cold lake breeze in spring while its boiling away from the lake.. Yeah, 40s, rainy, and windy first day of summer break this last year FTL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Don't get me wrong. i think this should be a good storm. But I'd be wary of some of the excessive amounts being depicted because of that slotting potential. I am banking on an inch to inch half, anything beyond that is gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Alek's avatars are always winners. Isn't that kid in his current avatar the same one that was in his Bears' avatar almost a year ago? Sure looks like it. Is that his kid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Isn't that kid in his current avatar the same one that was in his Bears' avatar almost a year ago? Sure looks like it. Is that his kid? Best laugh outside of watching the Brewers/Cards series I've had in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 For funsies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 For funsies Bow, you up for a boat ride tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 ahhhh, nothing like a fall classic to kick things into gear. Stepped outside this evening and it smelled like something was brewing. Love that smell. Looking forward to some good winds tomorrow and Thur. Hopefully we can squeeze out some rain too as it's been rather dry around here. Good luck to all of you further east. Hope you get hammered. btw, great blog post BI. Was a pleasure to read. Looking forward to some more as the winter progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Bow, you up for a boat ride tomorrow night? I bet Tropical/Cromartie and Powerball love this weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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