kab2791 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 DTX Web Briefing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 On 10/18/2011 at 7:13 PM, Alek said: lakeshore flood warning as well, waves building to 22 feet Also calling for up to 25 feet in the Indiana counties and 34 feet mid lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 On 10/18/2011 at 8:04 PM, Hoosier said: Also calling for up to 25 feet in the Indiana counties and 34 feet mid lake. pretty wild, you see numbers into the 20s further east once in a while, rarely on the west side of the lake. and 34 ft is just nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 On 10/18/2011 at 8:06 PM, Alek said: pretty wild, you see numbers into the 20s further east once in a while, rarely on the west side of the lake. and 34 ft is just nuts. Alright screw it, im coming downtown to your neck of the woods tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 On 10/18/2011 at 8:06 PM, Alek said: pretty wild, you see numbers into the 20s further east once in a while, rarely on the west side of the lake. and 34 ft is just nuts. I think this could come close to GHD in your area from a wind perspective. Tree impact in terms of limb loss/some downed trees could be fairly significant given the amount of leaves that haven't fallen yet. Usually these types of wind machines happen 2-3 weeks later in the season when the leaf drop is much more advanced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 On 10/18/2011 at 8:18 PM, Hoosier said: I think this could come close to GHD in your area from a wind perspective. Tree impact in terms of limb loss/some downed trees could be fairly significant given the amount of leaves that haven't fallen yet. Usually these types of wind machines happen 2-3 weeks later in the season when the leaf drop is much more advanced. Tons of trees full on green here (no frost yet either), so it's possible, but lots of weak links have come down in the past few active years. GHD was pretty wild, i'd love to experience those winds again, sustained roar FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 On 10/18/2011 at 8:04 PM, Hoosier said: Also calling for up to 25 feet in the Indiana counties and 34 feet mid lake. Nearly perfect trajectory with respect to the winds running almost the entire length of the lake. The Southern end of Lake Michigan is going to experience some big time erosion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 18z NAM holding serve with wind potential. 900 mb winds of 60-65 kts over SE WI/NE IL/NW IN tomorrow evening into early Thursday. Might not be able to rule out a rogue gust of 65-70 mph right at the shore or in the high rises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Gosh this storm is going to be sick. Some of these weather maps are pure pron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 On 10/18/2011 at 8:25 PM, Hoosier said: 18z NAM holding serve with wind potential. 900 mb winds of 60-65 kts over SE WI/NE IL/NW IN tomorrow evening into early Thursday. Might not be able to rule out a rogue gust of 65-70 mph right at the shore or in the high rises. getting flashbacks to GHD with those numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 A posted a blog article for any interested. http://jasonahsenmac...lf-development/ Coolest thing ever Walker Ashley linked it on the FB page of NIU (I was told by a friend). Not really a superb article, I kinda threw it together quick. Hope it is insightful nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 On 10/18/2011 at 8:52 PM, Chicago WX said: Lake MI is going to get rocked. They will have no problem efficiently mixing down extreme wind gusts, both due to the fetch but the unstable mixing with the warm lake. Low level lapse rates are pretty ridiculous. Freakish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Steady rain has started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 On 10/18/2011 at 8:58 PM, baroclinic_instability said: Lake MI is going to get rocked. They will have no problem efficiently mixing down extreme wind gusts, both due to the fetch but the unstable mixing with the warm lake. Low level lapse rates are pretty ridiculous. Freakish. Indeed. This storm is gonna rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 the severe side has gotten Middle Tennessee, particularly the Murfreesboro area. I received ping pong ball sized hail at my house and est. 65mph winds. This storm came and went in under 5 minutes but there are accidents all over, windows busted out of homes, trees down, and power outages. I'll post pics when I get them uploaded. Reports of tennis ball hail just SW of the city as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Man from Michigan City all the way to Milwaukee is going to get rocked with winds/waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Simulated IR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 On 10/18/2011 at 9:12 PM, Calderon said: the severe side has gotten Middle Tennessee, particularly the Murfreesboro area. I received ping pong ball sized hail at my house and est. 65mph winds. This storm came and went in under 5 minutes but there are accidents all over, windows busted out of homes, trees down, and power outages. I'll post pics when I get them uploaded. Reports of tennis ball hail just SW of the city as well. A lot of warnings and reports down there but no watch, really surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 On 10/18/2011 at 9:15 PM, Stebo48858 said: A lot of warnings and reports down there but no watch, really surprising. Yeah, these cells just erupted and within 20-30 of forming were dropping hail. It's all elevated but is tapping that much colder air aloft with ease and the results have been felt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 On 10/18/2011 at 9:05 PM, Alek said: Steady rain has started Small area of LER... Several of the short range/hi-res models were showing this, with an increase in coverage this evening and tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 18, 2011 Author Share Posted October 18, 2011 Light rain here. My Gosh this must sound like a broken record but if this storm happened 2 months from now! w/e Now im patiently awaiting the thread for next weeks storm. I see some cold air to play with. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 On 10/18/2011 at 8:44 PM, baroclinic_instability said: A posted a blog article for any interested. http://jasonahsenmac...lf-development/ Coolest thing ever Walker Ashley linked it on the FB page of NIU (I was told by a friend). Not really a superb article, I kinda threw it together quick. Hope it is insightful nonetheless. Great blog post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 All I'm going to say is....beware of the dryslot. 18z guidance is trying to spit out 2-3" of rain here. I'd half that easily and tell my peeps in N OH/SE MI to do the same. Pivot point looks like it'll setup in NW IN/SW and C MI. That's were the QPF bullseye is probably going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Really hard for me to weenie out over a leaf blizzard, but its always fun following the true weather enthusiast geek out and hopefully they will be rewarded with a repeat when there is enough cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 pretend its January and awesome blog write-up, Baro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Agreed completely...GFS/Euro/NAM all point to this...highest rainfall totals should extend from NW IN through SW and Central MI. Normally, I'd hate that, but I'm at CMU right now, so it's a perfect track. On 10/18/2011 at 10:18 PM, snowstormcanuck said: All I'm going to say is....beware of the dryslot. 18z guidance is trying to spit out 2-3" of rain here. I'd half that easily and tell my peeps in N OH/SE MI to do the same. Pivot point looks like it'll setup in NW IN/SW and C MI. That's were the QPF bullseye is probably going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 18, 2011 Author Share Posted October 18, 2011 On 10/18/2011 at 10:18 PM, snowstormcanuck said: All I'm going to say is....beware of the dryslot. 18z guidance is trying to spit out 2-3" of rain here. I'd half that easily and tell my peeps in N OH/SE MI to do the same. Pivot point looks like it'll setup in NW IN/SW and C MI. That's were the QPF bullseye is probably going to be. SW Ontario could be the real screw zone on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 18, 2011 Author Share Posted October 18, 2011 I think of this system as a dry run before the real deal. Basically a drill or a way of sharpening our tracking skills after a long vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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