12Z Model Thread

[Ed Lizard]

Sure, its the NAM, but it has some possibilities if it verifies.

Hints of coastal redevelopment, and the 850 mb freezing line surging Eastward.

[PhineasC]

GFS caved to the Euro. Game over.

[stormtracker]

Yeah, we've taken 2 steps back with this one. For those along the coastal plain, its time to refocus.

[WinterWxLuvr]

GFS caved to the Euro. Game over.

So far. But the UKMET has a vastly different solution. Who knows. You're probably right for our region, though.

Someone did mention that the data sampling won't be good for this until tonight or even in the morning. Again, I don't know that, just repeating what I've seen. We'll see, but doesn't look good. This has been interesting to follow.

[WxUSAF]

12Z GFS repeats the anafront situation for the Mid-Atlantic with a Lakes Cutter that doesn't ever fully jump to the coast (like 6Z). But, for the MA it bumps up the precip totals behind the front with a bullseye in central-eastern PA. NAM seems to hint at a similar solution, but has the storm considerably slower, so the storm is still in Michigan at 84hr. At 84hr on the NAM, the 0C 850 line looks just east of a State College-DC line. Both models show rain up to nearly the Canadian border in NY/New England though with this cutter. But then everyone gets at least some post-frontal snows, with increasing amounts the farther north you go.

[WxUSAF]

GFS caved to the Euro. Game over.

It's no blizzard, but look at the 78hr panel on the GFS. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_078.shtml

Looks like a quick burst of moderate snow behind the front. Perhaps enough for a couple inches late Sunday. I'd like to see the 2M temps just be sure. Can anybody get those for the big cities at 78hr? Thx!

[stormtracker]

It's no blizzard, but look at the 78hr panel on the GFS. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_078.shtml

Looks like a quick burst of moderate snow behind the front. Perhaps enough for a couple inches late Sunday. I'd like to see the 2M temps just be sure. Can anybody get those for the big cities at 78hr? Thx!

oh?

I'd settle for some flakes in the air at this point. Interesting post though.

[WxUSAF]

oh?

I'd settle for some flakes in the air at this point. Interesting post though.

Hmmm...10m temps are still warm then. Perhaps I spoke too soon. With cold air aloft and strong lifting from the vortmax going overhead, that still might be snow.

[Ed Lizard]

PSU regional, 3 hour time steps. looks like the 850 mb freezing line enters the DCA area around hour 78, but only a trace of precip falls in the 3 hours after.

[Radders]

Looking well ahead into the GFS 12Z, it does look to stay cold, but active with storms parading from west to east, and more of a SW Flow style gradient pattern setting up...Late December still looks like it could be quite interesting once we get past the arctic blast next week.

[tombo82685]

Hmmm...10m temps are still warm then. Perhaps I spoke too soon. With cold air aloft and strong lifting from the vortmax going overhead, that still might be snow.

the 925mb temps are torching at hr 78 from altoona to bradford pa line east

[WxUSAF]

the 925mb temps are torching at hr 78 from altoona to bradford pa line east

Bummer...thanks for the info.

[tombo82685]

Bummer...thanks for the info.

no problem, here is dc's skew t at hr 78

[ayuud]

so who gets good snowstorm out of this setup being shown on the gfs?

[WxUSAF]

no problem, here is dc's skew t at hr 78

That's not that bad actually. With strong lift from the vort overhead, that could still be snow at the surface. If there's only a trace of precip behind the front though, then it's a moot point.

[PhineasC]

UKMET all alone.

[Dr No]

12Z GGEM is very similar to the 12Z GFS, which isn't to far off from the 12Z GFS Ensemble Mean. I don't know if something got in sampling range today, but so far things have nearly converged with the solution that the lead shortwave will remain primary to a point way far north for most.

The energy didn't phase up as well nor trof dig deep on any of the 12Z runs so far.

[The_Global_Warmer]

UKMET all alone.

not exactly.

[PhineasC]

not exactly.

What other model agrees with it? GFS stepped towards the Euro.

[The_Global_Warmer]

What other model agrees with it? GFS stepped towards the Euro.

The gem has a deeper trough which could end up like the umket with subtle changes, the JMA is almost identical except still deepening at 72 hours with the H5 low in S. Mo. many GFS ensembles have a much further south solution.

[Lee]

Looking well ahead into the GFS 12Z, it does look to stay cold, but active with storms parading from west to east, and more of a SW Flow style gradient pattern setting up...Late December still looks like it could be quite interesting once we get past the arctic blast next week.

Not really; especially when you compare to previous runs for the medium/long range. Sort of a semi-zonal pattern as the pacific is really keeping heights from really diving in response to upstream blocking. Much of the extended medium range has 850's above 0c up to WV. That's actually pretty mild for that elevation that far north.

Of course, with what looks like a decent block still established it could be overdoing things here.

If the NAO were to go positve, talk about torch in the East,i.mo.

[Quasievil]

UKMET all alone.

I'm sure not for long.

[Analog96]

Not really; especially when you compare to previous runs for the medium/long range. Sort of a semi-zonal pattern as the pacific is really keeping heights from really diving in response to upstream blocking. Much of the extended medium range has 850's above 0c up to WV. That's actually pretty mild for that elevation that far north.

Of course, with what looks like a decent block still established it could be overdoing things here.

If the NAO were to go positve, talk about torch in the East,i.mo.

Some elevations in WV are at or above 850 MB. That doesn't mean so much down there.

[Lee]

Some elevations in WV are at or above 850 MB. That doesn't mean so much down there.

It does when saying stay"cold" in like colder than average but, yeah, maybe not when compared to average.

We're talking about around 5000ft here , not "some locations"" in West Virginia. 0 c highs at that elevation isn't no big deal this time of year.

[Analog96]

It does when saying stay"cold" in like colder than average but, yeah, maybe not when compared to average.

We're talking about around 5000ft here , not "some locations"" in West Virginia. 0 c highs at that elevation isn't no big deal this time of year.

Show me a location where there is a long stretch of above normal temperatures forecasted in the next two weeks. The only day that probably turns out above normal is Sunday, and that's because of a storm taking a bad track, not because of a warm pattern.

[Rib]

I'm not shocked to see the GFS back off on the extreme cold as sometimes happens with cold outbreaks and heatwaves in the 5-7 day range getting modified once we get under that range. Still, it will considered a major cold outbreak with how below normal it will get, especially in the Southeast/Florida.

[Lee]

Did I say anything about a long stretch of above normal,jeeze,lol. What is your deal buddy?

The point was 850's up into WV is not very cold at that juncture in December(poster was mentioning the EXTENDED medium range). Take a look at some averages for some towns at less than that elevation (as don't think any are that high) there and you can see. And yeah, if you do the math, several days are either average or above for that area southward.

[Cheeznado]

Look at this difference between the GFS and UKMET at 72 hours:

[Analog96]

Did I say anything about a long stretch of above normal,jeeze,lol. What is your deal buddy?

The point was 850's up into WV is not very cold at that juncture in December. Take a look at some averages for some towns at less than that elevation (as don't think any are that high) there and you can see. And yeah, if you do the math, several days are either average or above for that area southward.

You implictily stated that it was going to be warm. If the entire East is cold and some town in WV is 1 degree above normal, who cares? That's still a cold pattern! Look what you're saying before you hit the Submit button!

[Analog96]

Look at this difference between the GFS and UKMET at 72 hours:

WOW! We're talking about something like 700 miles!