Typhoon Tip Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 First, watch for a band of thunder with wind potential aoa 60hours out off 12z today... Nice, the teleconnectors are shifting pretty smartly toward a colder stormier appeal between the 20th and the end of the month. Nice PNA jump of 1.5 standard deviations from a local time-scale nadir of -1.5 is a huge recovery that argues for somewhat of a pattern shift away from these plaguing warm anomalous heights over eastern N/A. Granted, the PNA is HUGEMANGUS domain, …but 1.5 rises usually result in some kind of orientation modality. Meanwhile, the NAO is falling in tandem from +1 to nearly -.5SD. These are not overwhelming singular teleconnector signals, but they are more impressive when they occur in tandem that way. I call that “teleconnector convergence” and have for years… Anyway, it’s when you get multiple signals from disparate source regions; in my own evaluation/reanalysis I have found that to be more reliable than using just one or the other teleconnectors alone – and that is kind of a duh moment anyway. We’ll see how it works out… The 00z ECM brought lake effect snows to Michigan and Ohio by D8.5; perhaps leading on this idea and too agressive by a week but interesting nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 :weenie: Don't forget to defrost those dogs first! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Oh no. SnowNH just went through about 3 pairs of shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 BUY BREAD AND MILK!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=nhem&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=10day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Oh no. SnowNH just went through about 3 pairs of shorts. If I understood 3/4 of what he wrote.. then yea Translation anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 If I understood 3/4 of what he wrote.. then yea Translation anyone? It means we see some nice blocking in both western Canada and up by the Davis Straits. This appears to be mostly PNA driven and may be tied to the latest MJO pulse. I don't know how the correlation works at the top of my head for October, but it may be part of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Isn't the first week of November hard to get snow in? Someone I thought figured that out last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 It means we see some nice blocking in both western Canada and up by the Davis Straits. This appears to be mostly PNA driven and may be tied to the latest MJO pulse. I don't know how the correlation works at the top of my head for October, but it may be part of it. Essentially ...true, although i wasn't really accounting for the MJO wave dispersion; that's interesting, though. i was just relying on the what the agencies are putting out for the PNA/NAO indexes (after their 5 day hiatus from computing the fields). Anyway, a PNA rise of 1.5 total standard deviations does argue for somewhat of a +PNAP evolving, and the NAO is falling so yeah - that all drops the escape latitude of the westerlies along the EC. Also, I am noticing that it snowing pretty easily as near by as western NS and NF, so even a moderate shift in the NAO as we enter annum low solar would put a significant enough cold signal into the NE U.S. for some snow down this way given the upstream PNA loading as you mention. But i don't think said loading will be of deep N orgin, as the split in the EPO/PNA domain during the period argues for more middle latitude cold source. Should be sufficient as we will only gain in those regions over the next 2-3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Let's try and get at least one 6"+ storm a week this year...starting in early November...and ending around mid April. Once a month we also should get a 15"+ storm. That's all I ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 You ask You get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=nhem&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=10day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Nice dump of cold into the NE on that image... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 There's no doubt that the OP Euro has a pretty solid cold shot by the end of its run, but we've mentioned many times how the OP run that far out is basically the same as any other model in that time range. FWIW, the ensemble agree on a colder pattern for us past the 20th as well, but just not to the magnitude as the OP run. The overall signal for any impressive cold into Canada remains weak however, so if we do get a nice cold shot, its likely to be transient. I do think the blowtorch pattern as extreme as its been will def come to an end at some point by the end of the month, and instead might be replaced by this up and down pattern that still averages out mild, but nothing like what we have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 There's no doubt that the OP Euro has a pretty solid cold shot by the end of its run, but we've mentioned many times how the OP run that far out is basically the same as any other model in that time range. FWIW, the ensemble agree on a colder pattern for us past the 20th as well, but just not to the magnitude as the OP run. The overall signal for any impressive cold into Canada remains weak however, so if we do get a nice cold shot, its likely to be transient. I do think the blowtorch pattern as extreme as its been will def come to an end at some point by the end of the month, and instead might be replaced by this up and down pattern that still averages out mild, but nothing like what we have seen. I'm starting to wish we can get rid of the ridge out in central and western Russia. I think that's hurting to overall snowpack in that area, despite gains in Siberia. It's not bad now, but would like to see that ridge weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 Folks as typical during the transition season, the operational models are inherently taxed for all the permutability that expresses its self for having all that native differentiation in the field (delta(season)) at middle latitudes. There's that, and, a transitioning pattern regardless of inflection season(s) can cause just as many headaches. Combine the two and forget it! Here the emphasis is on the weight of the ensembles in hopes that more choral members will sing a more coherent song. These things tend to break all at once in operational runs. The rise in the PNA, the fall in the NAO ... there is perhaps a "breaking point", a threshold where suddenly at some point over the next 10 days the runs will come into some better than worse accord. Now is not it. That said, the teleconnectors modalities did relax on the overall idea a little, but in general still show an alleviated -PNA phase with tandem negative NAO emerging. I also don't think we need a very impressive continental cold loading into the Canadian shield to realize interesting weather locally given that. Of course, a couple of more nights of "alleviation" would certainly harm this overview, too. This is all early detection efforts anyway... For the next week actually the PNA is still in a free fall ... discussed rise doesn't even begin until 7 or so days out. Over the next few nights it will be interesting to monitor the teleconnector spread and see if it gets more discerned or weakens. Forgetting the QBO and all that fang-dangle - which is too theoretical to be considered law in the first place and I feel too liberally plied - the ENSO state reminds me of the late summer and autumn of 1995. Not that there is any direct correlation between the ENSO and the NAO domain, but the point is made that just because we have a Nina complexion out there doesn't mean we absolutely have to be jammed with a SE ridge. Also, the NAO that year did something similar where it was yawing up and down and then showed a negative collapse nearing November, and interesting, brought a winter in decisively early as that took place. It was very gradient like at first, too (I think I've heard the term gradient bandied about several times over the past few weeks), where central and N New England first got early cold and sleet/snows, while NYC and even CT weren't invited. Then it crept S and got more meaningful for the MA 3 or so weeks later - albeit still early. I dunno, I could very well be off my rocker on this but I have felt since June really that this summer reminded me alot of 1995, then we sumarily registered some epic heat in the MW in much the same way... Now, the Autumn, while no analog in verification per se, could very well take on some semblence if the NOA drops like that - the global circulation system may contain some similarities regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Folks as typical during the transition season, the operational models are inherently taxed for all the permutability that expresses its self for having all that native differentiation in the field (delta(season)) at middle latitudes. There's that, and, a transitioning pattern regardless of inflection season(s) can cause just as many headaches. Combine the two and forget it! Here the emphasis is on the weight of the ensembles in hopes that more choral members will sing a more coherent song. These things tend to break all at once in operational runs. The rise in the PNA, the fall in the NAO ... there is perhaps a "breaking point", a threshold where suddenly at some point over the next 10 days the runs will come into some better than worse accord. Now is not it. That said, the teleconnectors modalities did relax on the overall idea a little, but in general still show an alleviated -PNA phase with tandem negative NAO emerging. I also don't think we need a very impressive continental cold loading into the Canadian shield to realize interesting weather locally given that. Of course, a couple of more nights of "alleviation" would certainly harm this overview, too. This is all early detection efforts anyway... For the next week actually the PNA is still in a free fall ... discussed rise doesn't even begin until 7 or so days out. Over the next few nights it will be interesting to monitor the teleconnector spread and see if it gets more discerned or weakens. Forgetting the QBO and all that fang-dangle - which is too theoretical to be considered law in the first place and I feel too liberally plied - the ENSO state reminds me of the late summer and autumn of 1995. Not that there is any direct correlation between the ENSO and the NAO domain, but the point is made that just because we have a Nina complexion out there doesn't mean we absolutely have to be jammed with a SE ridge. Also, the NAO that year did something similar where it was yawing up and down and then showed a negative collapse nearing November, and interesting, brought a winter in decisively early as that took place. It was very gradient like at first, too (I think I've heard the term gradient bandied about several times over the past few weeks), where central and N New England first got early cold and sleet/snows, while NYC and even CT weren't invited. Then it crept S and got more meaningful for the MA 3 or so weeks later - albeit still early. I dunno, I could very well be off my rocker on this but I have felt since June really that this summer reminded me alot of 1995, then we sumarily registered some epic heat in the MW in much the same way... Now, the Autumn, while no analog in verification per se, could very well take on some semblence if the NOA drops like that - the global circulation system may contain some similarities regardless. Ensembles paint a cool look in the extended..but there's nothing overwhelming that supports a major cold outbreak or chances for snow other than uplsope snows in NNE and lake effect. It's too early to be counting on the indices as far as PNA and NAO to determine how wintry the pattern looks. need to hold off untl November for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Ensembles paint a cool look in the extended..but there's nothing overwhelming that supports a major cold outbreak or chances for snow other than uplsope snows in NNE and lake effect. It's too early to be counting on the indices as far as PNA and NAO to determine how wintry the pattern looks. need to hold off untl November for that wow BOX updated the snow stats on their site finally http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/bdlsnw.shtml'>http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/bdlsnw.shtml Also Tip, Ct had 6 inches in Nov and 21 in Dec in 95 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 Ensembles paint a cool look in the extended..but there's nothing overwhelming that supports a major cold outbreak or chances for snow other than uplsope snows in NNE and lake effect. It's too early to be counting on the indices as far as PNA and NAO to determine how wintry the pattern looks. need to hold off untl November for that You don't need a "major" snap to get snow... Also, it is not too early to apply the PNA and NAO teleconnectors. The NAO is active year round and the PNA gins up in mid September and really gets going as a correlation source in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 You don't need a "major" snap to get snow... Also, it is not too early to apply the PNA and NAO teleconnectors. The NAO is active year round and the PNA gins up in mid September and really gets going as a correlation source in October. Too much fang dango for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Not enough wang dangling for me It's this kind of stuff that offends mapgirl and trixie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 see what you learn about going to college in the MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 It's this kind of stuff that mapgirl and trixie love. Apparently thats what is was all about, Not enough of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 15, 2011 Author Share Posted October 15, 2011 see what you learn about going to college in the MA Is that an accident? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 15, 2011 Author Share Posted October 15, 2011 Too much fang dango for me You go through this every spring and autumn with Kevin... He fights the native season's termination with spin and interpretation until the fact that it is nearly frost-biting, or heat indexing (autumn or spring depending), before he finally concedes... Meanwhile, it's been patently obvious for up to a month before his stubbornness finally fails and allows the reality of change to set in... We get it - you think it's warm forever Anyway, I still see that the last week of October and mainly into the first week of November may offer the ensuing cold season's first shot at some white precipitation types. It's really having more to do with observing subtle trends in the extended model runs, and balancing them against ensemble modes. The ECM cluster - although I have not seen them very recently - showed plenty of room for cold insertion into the 55th parallel of the Canadian shield - a precursor. And though many think GFS cluster is meaningless, they to offer the same semblance of a mode shift. November sun is really weak... About the 11th of the month is when it stops heating the interior of a parked car - for example. That fires back up on Feb 11th, btw, and it is a tedious little observation of dimming and brightening solar affect I have taken note of over the years - haha Seriously though, it is true, and it says something about the ability to moderate even seasonally cold air masses should the arrive into Ontario and Manitoba regions during this time of the year... A wayward well-timed open wave from the OV to S of LI would thus be trekking along a good ambient baroclinic region (region of thermal gradients and thus pressure change), and you get cold side precipitation as enhanced potential in the means. I'm see that sort of scenario probablistically by taking into account these subtle tendencies as discussed above. Gleaning those out: The operational ECM/GFS have been pounding the idea of sub 534dm thickness spreading throughout most of the Canadian shield prior to Hollow's Eve. The runs obviously will, and have been, varying to a great degree on that magnitude and to spatially, but giving a nod to the expectation of stochastic solutions at this time of year and smoothing that all out you easily can see a cooler canvas emerging here. Thinking back in recent years ... we have had some autumns that did not feature this subtlety heading toward the end of October - fwiw, those years stayed relatively warm until after TG. That is not a deterministic scenario here, sure... but, for those in this for less than Meteorology and more for bantering and salivating over snow, that's a good sign for you. But for those that forecasting for a living, something to keep and eye on. I am aware that none of this penetrated the 10 miles of lead that separate Kevin's brain from Meteorological un-biased reasoning, but that doesn't make it any less worth mentioning imo haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 At some point near Halloween...give or take a few days, there is a pretty good troughing signal over the east and northeast US. I suppose it's possible some areas (esp higher elevations) could get their first taste of the white stuff...but we are stretching it since it's about 2 weeks out..give or take. Still, with the ridge building in the western parts of Canada and a hint of ridging near Greenland...seems like some storminess is possible. GFS operational and the ensembles try to hint at some sort of coastal low as well. Semi interesting to me, anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 At some point near Halloween...give or take a few days, there is a pretty good troughing signal over the east and northeast US. I suppose it's possible some areas (esp higher elevations) could get their first taste of the white stuff...but we are stretching it since it's about 2 weeks out..give or take. Still, with the ridge building in the western parts of Canada and a hint of ridging near Greenland...seems like some storminess is possible. GFS operational and the ensembles try to hint at some sort of coastal low as well. Semi interesting to me, anyways. GFS clown map on twisterdata is pretty funny. Puts out 6" in Philly lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 GFS clown map on twisterdata is pretty funny. Puts out 6" in Philly lol. LOLI definitely would not expect that, but it seems like perhaps we are in for a storm or two that may be more of a cstl storm rather than something cutting across Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 At some point near Halloween...give or take a few days, there is a pretty good troughing signal over the east and northeast US. I suppose it's possible some areas (esp higher elevations) could get their first taste of the white stuff...but we are stretching it since it's about 2 weeks out..give or take. Still, with the ridge building in the western parts of Canada and a hint of ridging near Greenland...seems like some storminess is possible. GFS operational and the ensembles try to hint at some sort of coastal low as well. Semi interesting to me, anyways. Cool thanks. I'll let everyone know to expect heavy heavy snow 2 weeks from Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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