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October 2011 Banter/Obs/Disco Part III


HoarfrostHubb

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I was not going back in forth LOL, read back it was in response to GInx trolling me, he is very upset about his predictions for the fall, even so much that he includes met winter as part of fall :thumbsup: GInxy is great, he will spin it to win it. Back to the torch.

You should link me to my fall prediction.

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You should link me to my fall prediction.

LOL, you were going on and on and on regarding recurving typhoons and hurricanes and how it was going to be a cold and early fall.

You are quick to point out mistakes, you should be held to the same criteria. You seek my posts out, because I have enjoyed this beautiful fall, and I like the warmth, much better than wasted cold. Snow when it matters, as for now , its the infinite inferno, take care Steve, have a great day.

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LOL, you were going on and on and on regarding recurving typhoons and hurricanes and how it was going to be a cold and early fall.

You are quick to point out mistakes, you should be held to the same criteria. You seek my posts out, because I have enjoyed this beautiful fall, and I like the warmth, much better than wasted cold. Snow when it matters, as for now , its the infinite inferno, take care Steve, have a great day.

The 4 coldest days of Sept the 16-20 th were ten days after the recurve I mentioned. I seek out your posts? Lol I just read what I said and what I said on Sept 6 th was to get your woollys out in ten days. If you are going to mock me, please quote me correctly. FYI you can quote and mock me later, big pattern change Halloween.

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I was not going back in forth LOL, read back it was in response to GInx trolling me, he is very upset about his predictions for the fall, even so much that he includes met winter as part of fall :thumbsup: GInxy is great, he will spin it to win it. Back to the torch.

53/36, windy, leaves gone Kiss your torch good-bye Summer boy. It's on the way, the hammer will drop.

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The 4 coldest days of Sept the 16-20 th were ten days after the recurve I mentioned. I seek out your posts? Lol I just read what I said and what I said on Sept 6 th was to get your woollys out in ten days. If you are going to mock me, please quote me correctly. FYI you can quote and mock me later, big pattern change Halloween.

Pattern change comes middle of November.

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Another warmer than average day yesterday and again today... all because of overnight minimums.

Local Morrisville-Stowe Airport (MVL) put up a +6F yesterday:

Average High...56F

Actual...57F

Departure...+1

Average Low...35F

Actual...46F

Departure...+11

Daily Departure...+6F

Again today this morning's low was 39F so we start the day with a +4F, and the high so far today is 55F (-1F) so its another above normal day.

Of the 16 days so far this month, a total of 13 of them have had above average minimums (a lot of them 10F or greater from average).

I have forgotten what average cold feels like this time of year. I thought it was chilly this morning at 39F but then realized that was still warmer than the average of the last 30 years.

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53/36, windy, leaves gone Kiss your torch good-bye Summer boy. It's on the way, the hammer will drop.

You have been saying that for 4 months Pete. Playing Quaker Ridge tomorrow down in Westchester, sunny temps around 70, does not get any better than that! Bad hair days wed and thur, by the way sorry about the Bills :(

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How far west is the Euro with the primary? Is it the tropical moisture that drenches us out by the coast, any below normal temps next weekend, or is it rotting mild air advecting in from the west as the entire trough just lifts north?

It looks like the GFS with the primary shoving west with a warmfront that hangs up for a time near the south coast of SNE. Looks like occlusion comes through Thursday morning with sw winds, although the milder air could be tickling Joes fanny for a while. Weekend looks pleasant with 548-550 thicknesses.

@snowNH, Euro gives parts of se mass and Cape near and just over 3" it seems.

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1 to 3  maybe someone gets 4 inches out of this but its moving to fast for anything more then that

Yup... BOX agrees...

OVERVIEW INTO FCST THINKING...

AS AN H5 TROF AMPLIFIES THRU THE OH RVR VLY WED INTO THURS...LIFTING

NEWD THURS NGT INTO FRI...SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE SERN

CONUS LIFTING NWD THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC TUE NGT INTO WED. SFC LOW

WILL OCCLUDE BACK INTO THE ERN GRT LKS RGN LATE WED INTO THURS...

DEPARTING NEWD OUT OF THE RGN FRI. TROF PATTERN GENERALLY AGREES

WITH THE FCST NEAR-NEUTRAL PHASE OF THE NAO/AO...WITH MORE SUPPORT

FOR A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOSED LOW

SYS. IN BRIEF...WILL NEED TO BE CONCERNED FOR WED INTO WED NGT...A

12-HR PD...WHEN A COMBINATION OF FACTORS MAY PSBLY LEND TO DEEP MOIST

CONVERGENCE AND AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES EXTENDING

FROM THE TRI-STATE RGN NEWD ALONG THE COAST OF ME. SOME CONCERN ALSO

PERTAINS TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH SHORT

DURATION AND UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SPECIFIC TRACK OF THE SFC LOW.

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It looks like the GFS with the primary shoving west with a warmfront that hangs up for a time near the south coast of SNE. Looks like occlusion comes through Thursday morning with sw winds, although the milder air could be tickling Joes fanny for a while. Weekend looks pleasant with 548-550 thicknesses.

@snowNH, Euro gives parts of se mass and Cape near and just over 3" it seems.

Thanks Scooter, what once looked like a real chilly end of week weekend is shaping up to be normal, perhaps slightly above. Do you know off hand of a site I could go to, to look at seasonal records? Trying to put together a picture of just how warm this met fall has been across ALL of New England.

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Looks like a quick hitter. Unfortunately for those of us who want a big storm the primary cuts off so far west that the moisture/low level vorticity from 95L will rocket up the coast and not do much more than provide us with a 6 hour deluge.

Had the entire thing phased near the coast we'd be talking about a bomb!

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Thanks Scooter, what once looked like a real chilly end of week weekend is shaping up to be normal, perhaps slightly above. Do you know off hand of a site I could go to, to look at seasonal records?  Trying to put together a picture of just how warm this met fall has been across ALL of New England.

So many of this flirtations with cold seem to get sizzled. What a crazy autumn...

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So many of this flirtations with cold seem to get sizzled. What a crazy autumn...

It is, look at this next storm, its ridiculously far west. Trough axis is awful, and I just dont see the cold on our side of the globe right now, who knows Ginx might be right for a Halloweenie pattern change. This will be like the third or fourth storm where we advect dirt air from our sw. Love to see a direct dischafge of arctic air heading due south from Quebec, but thats not happening anytime soon, and I keep hearing cold building in nw canada, well its useless when it pays a visit to rocky top before getting here.

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Looks like a quick hitter. Unfortunately for those of us who want a big storm the primary cuts off so far west that the moisture/low level vorticity from 95L will rocket up the coast and not do much more than provide us with a 6 hour deluge.

Had the entire thing phased near the coast we'd be talking about a bomb!

Agree. What are your thoughts on wind and also convective potential?

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While over the past two weeks overall for the period it has been a bit dry but the recent rain event has made the past week fairly wet, over the past month+ we have been looking at insane precip departures across a good chunk of the region, especially across northern MA into southern VT and southern NH. For these locations even 1-3'' of rain...possibly 4'' isolated amounts could make for some major issues considering this rain could fall in a 6-7 hour window.

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