Ginx snewx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 I was not going back in forth LOL, read back it was in response to GInx trolling me, he is very upset about his predictions for the fall, even so much that he includes met winter as part of fall GInxy is great, he will spin it to win it. Back to the torch. You should link me to my fall prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 You should link me to my fall prediction. LOL, you were going on and on and on regarding recurving typhoons and hurricanes and how it was going to be a cold and early fall. You are quick to point out mistakes, you should be held to the same criteria. You seek my posts out, because I have enjoyed this beautiful fall, and I like the warmth, much better than wasted cold. Snow when it matters, as for now , its the infinite inferno, take care Steve, have a great day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 We all bust from time to time..even the great ones have their share of busts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 LOL, you were going on and on and on regarding recurving typhoons and hurricanes and how it was going to be a cold and early fall. You are quick to point out mistakes, you should be held to the same criteria. You seek my posts out, because I have enjoyed this beautiful fall, and I like the warmth, much better than wasted cold. Snow when it matters, as for now , its the infinite inferno, take care Steve, have a great day. The 4 coldest days of Sept the 16-20 th were ten days after the recurve I mentioned. I seek out your posts? Lol I just read what I said and what I said on Sept 6 th was to get your woollys out in ten days. If you are going to mock me, please quote me correctly. FYI you can quote and mock me later, big pattern change Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 I was not going back in forth LOL, read back it was in response to GInx trolling me, he is very upset about his predictions for the fall, even so much that he includes met winter as part of fall GInxy is great, he will spin it to win it. Back to the torch. 53/36, windy, leaves gone Kiss your torch good-bye Summer boy. It's on the way, the hammer will drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 The 4 coldest days of Sept the 16-20 th were ten days after the recurve I mentioned. I seek out your posts? Lol I just read what I said and what I said on Sept 6 th was to get your woollys out in ten days. If you are going to mock me, please quote me correctly. FYI you can quote and mock me later, big pattern change Halloween. Pattern change comes middle of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Another warmer than average day yesterday and again today... all because of overnight minimums. Local Morrisville-Stowe Airport (MVL) put up a +6F yesterday: Average High...56F Actual...57F Departure...+1 Average Low...35F Actual...46F Departure...+11 Daily Departure...+6F Again today this morning's low was 39F so we start the day with a +4F, and the high so far today is 55F (-1F) so its another above normal day. Of the 16 days so far this month, a total of 13 of them have had above average minimums (a lot of them 10F or greater from average). I have forgotten what average cold feels like this time of year. I thought it was chilly this morning at 39F but then realized that was still warmer than the average of the last 30 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 53/36, windy, leaves gone Kiss your torch good-bye Summer boy. It's on the way, the hammer will drop. You have been saying that for 4 months Pete. Playing Quaker Ridge tomorrow down in Westchester, sunny temps around 70, does not get any better than that! Bad hair days wed and thur, by the way sorry about the Bills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 53/36, windy, leaves gone Kiss your torch good-bye Summer boy. It's on the way, the hammer will drop. Nice. You do have a great little nook there if you're holding at 53F Other temps in the area... 53F at 2,000ft in Peru 57F at 1,450ft on Chester Hill 59F at 930ft in Huntington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Man - these are some omminous QPF numbers ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 You're kidding right? I'll be impressed if we see 40mph. Sarcasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Sarcasm For sure, Low is to far west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Man - these are some omminous QPF numbers ... Which are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Euro is a 6hr deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Euro is a 6hr deluge. How far west is the Euro with the primary? Is it the tropical moisture that drenches us out by the coast, any below normal temps next weekend, or is it rotting mild air advecting in from the west as the entire trough just lifts north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Euro is a 6hr deluge. What do numbers look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 NBD up here, .75-1.00" on thurs from this one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Euro is a 6hr deluge. yes it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 How far west is the Euro with the primary? Is it the tropical moisture that drenches us out by the coast, any below normal temps next weekend, or is it rotting mild air advecting in from the west as the entire trough just lifts north? It looks like the GFS with the primary shoving west with a warmfront that hangs up for a time near the south coast of SNE. Looks like occlusion comes through Thursday morning with sw winds, although the milder air could be tickling Joes fanny for a while. Weekend looks pleasant with 548-550 thicknesses. @snowNH, Euro gives parts of se mass and Cape near and just over 3" it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 Pattern change comes middle of November. Why do you keep stating this? You have mentioned Nov 16 several times. Joke post or is there some actual thing presenting in long range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 1 to 3 maybe someone gets 4 inches out of this but its moving to fast for anything more then that What do numbers look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 1 to 3 maybe someone gets 4 inches out of this but its moving to fast for anything more then that Yup... BOX agrees... OVERVIEW INTO FCST THINKING... AS AN H5 TROF AMPLIFIES THRU THE OH RVR VLY WED INTO THURS...LIFTING NEWD THURS NGT INTO FRI...SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE SERN CONUS LIFTING NWD THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC TUE NGT INTO WED. SFC LOW WILL OCCLUDE BACK INTO THE ERN GRT LKS RGN LATE WED INTO THURS... DEPARTING NEWD OUT OF THE RGN FRI. TROF PATTERN GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE FCST NEAR-NEUTRAL PHASE OF THE NAO/AO...WITH MORE SUPPORT FOR A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOSED LOW SYS. IN BRIEF...WILL NEED TO BE CONCERNED FOR WED INTO WED NGT...A 12-HR PD...WHEN A COMBINATION OF FACTORS MAY PSBLY LEND TO DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE AND AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES EXTENDING FROM THE TRI-STATE RGN NEWD ALONG THE COAST OF ME. SOME CONCERN ALSO PERTAINS TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH SHORT DURATION AND UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SPECIFIC TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 It looks like the GFS with the primary shoving west with a warmfront that hangs up for a time near the south coast of SNE. Looks like occlusion comes through Thursday morning with sw winds, although the milder air could be tickling Joes fanny for a while. Weekend looks pleasant with 548-550 thicknesses. @snowNH, Euro gives parts of se mass and Cape near and just over 3" it seems. Thanks Scooter, what once looked like a real chilly end of week weekend is shaping up to be normal, perhaps slightly above. Do you know off hand of a site I could go to, to look at seasonal records? Trying to put together a picture of just how warm this met fall has been across ALL of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Man, the CFS nina gets to like 3.0+ insanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Looks like a pretty cold airmass entering the NW and central part of canada out past 180 on the euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Looks like a quick hitter. Unfortunately for those of us who want a big storm the primary cuts off so far west that the moisture/low level vorticity from 95L will rocket up the coast and not do much more than provide us with a 6 hour deluge. Had the entire thing phased near the coast we'd be talking about a bomb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 Thanks Scooter, what once looked like a real chilly end of week weekend is shaping up to be normal, perhaps slightly above. Do you know off hand of a site I could go to, to look at seasonal records? Trying to put together a picture of just how warm this met fall has been across ALL of New England. So many of this flirtations with cold seem to get sizzled. What a crazy autumn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 So many of this flirtations with cold seem to get sizzled. What a crazy autumn... It is, look at this next storm, its ridiculously far west. Trough axis is awful, and I just dont see the cold on our side of the globe right now, who knows Ginx might be right for a Halloweenie pattern change. This will be like the third or fourth storm where we advect dirt air from our sw. Love to see a direct dischafge of arctic air heading due south from Quebec, but thats not happening anytime soon, and I keep hearing cold building in nw canada, well its useless when it pays a visit to rocky top before getting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Looks like a quick hitter. Unfortunately for those of us who want a big storm the primary cuts off so far west that the moisture/low level vorticity from 95L will rocket up the coast and not do much more than provide us with a 6 hour deluge. Had the entire thing phased near the coast we'd be talking about a bomb! Agree. What are your thoughts on wind and also convective potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 While over the past two weeks overall for the period it has been a bit dry but the recent rain event has made the past week fairly wet, over the past month+ we have been looking at insane precip departures across a good chunk of the region, especially across northern MA into southern VT and southern NH. For these locations even 1-3'' of rain...possibly 4'' isolated amounts could make for some major issues considering this rain could fall in a 6-7 hour window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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