NorEaster27 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 would think QPF would be higher than what models are showing with such deep tropical moisture lifting north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 would think QPF would be higher than what models are showing with such deep tropical moisture lifting north? It's going to depend on where the low tracks too. The system is progressive luckily, but some areas could still have substantial amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 It's going to depend on where the low tracks too. The system is progressive luckily, but some areas could still have substantial amounts. Man pretty impressive stuff going on for the Keys and Florida, looks like the strong CF sweeps that East OTS quickly, best energy is swept East of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Man pretty impressive stuff going on for the Keys and Florida, looks like the strong CF sweeps that East OTS quickly, best energy is swept East of us. I'm not sure how this will play out. It's possible that happens and best LLJ and moisture convergence is east, or the SREFs could happen too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 09Z SREFs really hitting eastern and se areas pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 I think you need to look back at last falls pattern. Just look at 11/5 and 11/17, actually 11/5 looks exactly like this upcoming week. To me the only hint you can take about winter is that it will be wet. You do understand the whole modality switch and correlation with a Fall Positive NAO and the correlation with a negative winter NAO. In order to eat you must first set the table. Agreed, coldest snowiest winter ever, monster NAO, HLB, best winter ever. Snows start next weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 NAM sends low way west.. sneaky torch day 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Looking at the NAM, it seems like the gulf low is a trackable surface entity right up to NE and we'll see how long that can stay dominant. That is the big rainmaker. Then ultimately the lowest pressure shifts west to the upper support and we get southwest winds roar in around that. 09Z SREFs really hitting eastern and se areas pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 NAM sends low way west.. sneaky torch day 3? Over us, west of us...either way, it will torch after occlusion comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Looking at the NAM, it seems like the gulf low is a trackable surface entity right up to NE and we'll see how long that can stay dominant. That is the big rainmaker. Then ultimately the lowest pressure shifts west to the upper support and we get southwest winds roar in around that. An absolutely sick coastal to parent low transition. This beast is going to be awesome to rack. It will look even sicker once it gets going across the Lakes. The role of the latent heat release induced low level PV anomaly associated with that tropical plume/low is going to have major implications on development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 I just remembered America's new hope in the marathon ... Kevin, how are the legs feeling today? Did you go to work or are you incapacitated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 An absolutely sick coastal to parent low transition. This beast is going to be awesome to rack. It will look even sicker once it gets going across the Lakes. The role of the latent heat release induced low level PV anomaly associated with that tropical plume/low is going to have major implications on development. I wish the upper level support weren't so disjointed from this feature, but yeah...this could have some tricks up its sleeve as it comes up the coast. The comma head and mid level frontogenesis/deformation looks quite impressive on the west and nw side of this low...over the OV and into the GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 I wish the upper level support weren't so disjointed from this feature, but yeah...this could have some tricks up its sleeve as it comes up the coast. The comma head and mid level frontogenesis/deformation looks quite impressive on the west and nw side of this low...over the OV and into the GL. My thoughts exactly. If the latent heat release PV induced low were better co-located with the synoptic low (i.e., better PV phasing through the troposphere and stronger mutual amplification) this would be a true bomb. That said, as you mentioned, the CCB and defo band are spectacular. We saw zero storms of this type last winter...they were more or less all coastal trackers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Girl 22 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Agreed, coldest snowiest winter ever, monster NAO, HLB, best winter ever. Snows start next weekend! are you serious? how would you know that yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 I wish the upper level support weren't so disjointed from this feature, but yeah...this could have some tricks up its sleeve as it comes up the coast. The comma head and mid level frontogenesis/deformation looks quite impressive on the west and nw side of this low...over the OV and into the GL. Damaging wind maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Damaging wind maybe? looks unlikely at this point, storm is still looking disjointed on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Damaging wind maybe? No I wouldn't worry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 I think coastal areas could see some strong winds with this...that is one sick LLJ being depicted by the NAM, although the NAM tends to overdo them a bit...even the GFS though is fairly impressive. One thing that really sticks out to me though is both the NAM and GFS are developing a 100-125 kt MLJ streak at the base of the trough...when you see that at 500mb...eyes better open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 My thoughts exactly. If the latent heat release PV induced low were better co-located with the synoptic low (i.e., better PV phasing through the troposphere and stronger mutual amplification) this would be a true bomb. That said, as you mentioned, the CCB and defo band are spectacular. We saw zero storms of this type last winter...they were more or less all coastal trackers. You may already know this, but you should check out what happened here on 12/9/05. That couplet that you described happened perfectly here. The tropopause basically kissed Cape Cod..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 You may already know this, but you should check out what happened here on 12/9/05. That couplet that you described happened perfectly here. The tropopause basically kissed Cape Cod..lol. Yeah I knew a little about that storm mainly from last season because folks were using it as an analog. But yeah, incredible timing, nice example. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2005/us1210j3.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 are you serious? how would you know that yet? he's trolling--a few weeks ago he called for a warm winter in the sports thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 If that low tracks any further west than what the NAM is showing there could be a really decent severe wx outbreak across parts VA and eastern sections of the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Yeah I knew a little about that storm mainly from last season because folks were using it as an analog. But yeah, incredible timing, nice example. http://www.meteo.psu...05/us1210j3.php Dave Vallee of BOX did a nice presentation on this fwiw. I still have yet to see a storm as dynamic as that one. It brought Cat II winds to cape Cod. http://www.sneweatherconf.org/2006presentations.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 If this was winter, we'd probably get a big front end dump of snow here ahead of the coastal wave before the occlusion came through and thawed us for a short time and then a flash freeze again on west/southwest winds. I'm speaking of my location. This is how I can score pretty good on snow even when a primary might ultimately go west like this. If that low tracks any further west than what the NAM is showing there could be a really decent severe wx outbreak across parts VA and eastern sections of the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Hiked MWN yesterday via Huntington's and there was 2" of fresh snow above 5000'. It started snowing down around 2500' but didn't stick until I was up on the ridges. I was hoping for some gusts over 80 but all I got was 48G55 when i summited around 2pm. Around 11:30 am they had 65G75, which would be slightly stronger than the strongest I've seen on MWN, and overnight they had gusts to 100. I was trying to summit before noon because I knew the wind would die down but got hung up because I joined up with this slower group of hikers for safety but once I realized the conditions weren't that bad I took off on my own. I should have just solo'd it up tucks to catch the wind but on the other hand I would have missed the thrill and awe of Huntington's. A very beautiful day for hiking with the remaining foliage and snow on the ridges. And exciting to see first snow of '11-12. I'll post pics later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Sounds great. Hiked MWN yesterday via Huntington's and there was 2" of fresh snow above 5000'. It started snowing down around 2500' but didn't stick until I was up on the ridges. I was hoping for some gusts over 80 but all I got was 48G55 when i summited around 2pm. Around 11:30 am they had 65G75, which would be slightly stronger than the strongest I've seen on MWN, and overnight they had gusts to 100. I was trying to summit before noon because I knew the wind would die down but got hung up because I joined up with this slower group of hikers for safety but once I realized the conditions weren't that bad I took off on my own. I should have just solo'd it up tucks to catch the wind but on the other hand I would have missed the thrill and awe of Huntington's. A very beautiful day for hiking with the remaining foliage and snow on the ridges. And exciting to see first snow of '11-12. I'll post pics later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 he's trolling--a few weeks ago he called for a warm winter in the sports thread LOL how bout those phillies!!! I was trying to make a point, but it seems that opinions and viewpoints are not welcome, only snow talk, and how much, and lots of it. By the way I have a preliminary forecast out and its calling for slightly above normal temps and above normal snowfall for you.RIght around 48 inhces for you. Last year I had you 70+ inhces of snow, that worked well. Its possible to have above normal snowfall and temps, but GOd forbid you speak of it. Until then the torch rolls on, another burner today, 66/31 at 1236pm, mid week torches, and the late week cold shot has gone bye bye as LP heads well west and we advect in some mild air from the southwest. I was dead on for my September temps, doing ok this month except for Boston, and I think November is another +2 or so month perhaps even higher, starting to wonder if this will become one of the mildest autumns in new england history, sure looks that way. GO Phillies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 LOL how bout those phillies!!! I was trying to make a point, but it seems that opinions and viewpoints are not welcome, only snow talk, and how much, and lots of it. By the way I have a preliminary forecast out and its calling for slightly above normal temps and above normal snowfall for you.RIght around 48 inhces for you. Last year I had you 70+ inhces of snow, that worked well. Its possible to have above normal snowfall and temps, but GOd forbid you speak of it. Until then the torch rolls on, another burner today, 66/31 at 1236pm, mid week torches, and the late week cold shot has gone bye bye as LP heads well west and we advect in some mild air from the southwest. I was dead on for my September temps, doing ok this month except for Boston, and I think November is another +2 or so month perhaps even higher, starting to wonder if this will become one of the mildest autumns in new england history, sure looks that way. GO Phillies Phillies are as over-rated as the Yankees....we certainly have that in common. LOL. No problem with a warm viewpoint (at least by me, just don't go back and forth b/w the 2!) On a serious note, nice to have another fellow Fairfielder on the board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Phillies are as over-rated as the Yankees....we certainly have that in common. LOL. No problem with a warm viewpoint (at least by me, just don't go back and forth b/w the 2!) On a serious note, nice to have another fellow Fairfielder on the board! I was not going back in forth LOL, read back it was in response to GInx trolling me, he is very upset about his predictions for the fall, even so much that he includes met winter as part of fall GInxy is great, he will spin it to win it. Back to the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 LOL how bout those phillies!!! I was trying to make a point, but it seems that opinions and viewpoints are not welcome, only snow talk, and how much, and lots of it. By the way I have a preliminary forecast out and its calling for slightly above normal temps and above normal snowfall for you.RIght around 48 inhces for you. Last year I had you 70+ inhces of snow, that worked well. Its possible to have above normal snowfall and temps, but GOd forbid you speak of it. Until then the torch rolls on, another burner today, 66/31 at 1236pm, mid week torches, and the late week cold shot has gone bye bye as LP heads well west and we advect in some mild air from the southwest. I was dead on for my September temps, doing ok this month except for Boston, and I think November is another +2 or so month perhaps even higher, starting to wonder if this will become one of the mildest autumns in new england history, sure looks that way. GO Phillies You should post in my winter forecast thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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