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October 2011 Banter/Obs/Disco Part III


HoarfrostHubb

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This is one of my favorite string of metars ever.

KTIK

METAR KTIK 040010Z RMK TORNADO 13SW MOV NE. LARGE TORNADO ON THE GROUND TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY.

METAR KTIK 040019Z 08008KT 1SM +FC TSRAGR OVC020CB 21/20 A2955 RMK TORNADO 9SW MOV NE FRQ LTGICCCCG TS OHD MOV NE GR 1 1/4 PRESFR

METAR KTIK 040031Z 08006KT 6SM +FC OVC020CB 21/20 A2956 RMK TORNADO 5SW MOV NE FRQ LTGICCCCG TS OHD MOV NE PRESRR

METAR KTIK 040036Z 08006KT 6SM +FC OVC020CB 21/20 A2954 RMK TORNADO 3SW MOV NE FRQ LTGICCCCG TS OHD MOV NE PRES UNSTDY

METAR KTIK 040043Z COR RMK TORNADO 1W MOV NE. EVACUATING STATION

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Well it looks like some major wind and flood damage is coming this week for all of SNE

Expecting a little rain--nothing too bad in GC.

Meanwhile, I'm hoping I can get my Davis station sited properly again. It's been sitting on the deck next to the house the last few days, so I'm sure the warming of the deck has skewed my readings.

45.0/40

Edit: What is the background on the sandbags?

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It also has hours of ene winds and rain until the occlusion comes through. You'll get your warm air nudity when that happens.

Its going to be warm all week, I am more interested in trends, where troughing continues to set up, which model is correct, GFS is awful, just awful Euro had the right idea originally then lost it briefly then latched onto it once and for all.

Pattern recognition, hints about winter

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Its going to be warm all week, I am more interested in trends, where troughing continues to set up, which model is correct, GFS is awful, just awful Euro had the right idea originally then lost it briefly then latched onto it once and for all.

Pattern recognition, hints about winter

Eh, I don't know...I'm not big on the October correlation to winter storm pattern. We've had Fall's with cutters only to switch in December. And look at last year....we had coastal storms until February and then the pattern switched to more GL type tracks. I don't know..maybe it works out for some years, but I don't completely buy that October correlation. It's a transitioning time of year. The NAO can also flip phase sign between now and winter too.

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Eh, I don't know...I'm not big on the October correlation to winter storm pattern. We've had Fall's with cutters only to switch in December. And look at last year....we had coastal storms until February and then the pattern switched to more GL type tracks. I don't know..maybe it works out for some years, but I don't completely buy that October correlation. It's a transitioning time of year. The NAO can also flip phase sign between now and winter too.

Good points just looking for hints for the upcoming pattern, the way the trough axis keeps getting pushed back west is troublesome, this will make storm 3 or 4 that has done this, left with rotting cold that advects northeast into new england, end result are above normal days. Interesting thats all, I see zero signs of a pattern change, at least not yet, but I would not expect any until mid November.

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Good points just looking for hints for the upcoming pattern, the way the trough axis keeps getting pushed back west is troublesome, this will make storm 3 or 4 that has done this, left with rotting cold that advects northeast into new england, end result are above normal days. Interesting thats all, I see zero signs of a pattern change, at least not yet, but I would not expect any until mid November.

I guess if you want to argue that it could mean east coast troughing..maybe there is some correlation. But as for actual storm track...I just don't see it. Don't forget...in winter, cold air is difficult to displace. So with a storm cutting like that...you may have more of a wintry mess with snow to rain at the coast, and ice inland. More of a classic SWFE I guess.

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Its going to be warm all week, I am more interested in trends, where troughing continues to set up, which model is correct, GFS is awful, just awful Euro had the right idea originally then lost it briefly then latched onto it once and for all.

Pattern recognition, hints about winter

I think you need to look back at last falls pattern. Just look at 11/5 and 11/17, actually 11/5 looks exactly like this upcoming week. To me the only hint you can take about winter is that it will be wet. You do understand the whole modality switch and correlation with a Fall Positive NAO and the correlation with a negative winter NAO. In order to eat you must first set the table.

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