CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 18z NAM has heavy laptop to ceiling for the SOS. He'll be running around the reservation sandbagging the museum. I'll give a bit of a nod to SOS on this one..especially if it doesn't shoot so far to the west. Euro ensemble precip probs are really juice for SNE. This will have whatever slop gyre forms in the Gulf too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Let the record show... Euro - 1 / GFS - 0 for pegging the inside runner. UK too had it pegged. Euro dropped the ball late last week though. It had something way OTS for a few runs...but it was pretty far out at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Euro dropped the ball late last week though. It had something way OTS for a few runs...but it was pretty far out at that time. yeah it did. Became consistent by 120 hours or so and latched on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 yeah it did. Became consistent by 120 hours or so and latched on. Still think it may be a little more closer to the coast like the GFS has, but the euro has almost a triple point feature coming across. Might be something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Still think it may be a little more closer to the coast like the GFS has, but the euro has almost a triple point feature coming across. Might be something like that. Either way it would be a nasty slop to pingers to windswept rain. Will be interesting to see if we even get overly windy... or if we stay stable with the warm front stalled south of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Either way it would be a nasty slop to pingers to windswept rain. Will be interesting to see if we even get overly windy... or if we stay stable with the warm front stalled south of us Might be a period of strong winds near the coast from the e or ne...depending on where the primary tracks. Not like 50kts, but 30+kts possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 We could get a windswept downpour tonight. LLJ really cranks with a burst of low level isentropic lift... some low/mid level frontogenesis... and some s/w forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Might be a period of strong winds near the coast from the e or ne...depending on where the primary tracks. Not like 50kts, but 30+kts possible. Yeah agreed. South coast/Cape especially with warm SSTs could help promote mixing while the interior is ENE at 5 kts lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 We could get a windswept downpour tonight. LLJ really cranks with a burst of low level isentropic lift... some low/mid level frontogenesis... and some s/w forcing. Funny....LI's dip below 0 too...just saw that. Maybe a rumble on the Cape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Gonna be a while. 10/16, not even concerned. Leaves are mostly gone now, we'll step down and get the snow in here before you know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Funny....LI's dip below 0 too...just saw that. Maybe a rumble on the Cape? Wouldn't surprise me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Wouldn't surprise me lol I see BOX hinted at it too. Wow..how bored are we right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 As long as Vermont gets a lot of snow and I get 1 KU I'm fine with a 25" seasonal total at BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 10/16, not even concerned. Leaves are mostly gone now, we'll step down and get the snow in here before you know it. Leaves just getting some good color here. I'd say about 10-15% of leaves are down. Definitely behind most years. Usually we do one leaf cleanup the 3rd week of October and then one final one the first or second of November. Not sure it will even be worth it yet next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 It will be interesting to see if the storm in the Caribbean does develop as it is heading up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 It will be interesting to see if the storm in the Caribbean does develop as it is heading up this way. Ryan, even if anything develops wont it get sheared to pieces in the GOM, either way copious moisture, something we dont need, or the humidity midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Ryan, even if anything develops wont it get sheared to pieces in the GOM, either way copious moisture, something we dont need, or the humidity midweek. Well the more it organizes the more it can bring that moisture north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Well the more it organizes the more it can bring that moisture north. True, deep southerly flow should help as well. Starting to think we may see some mid to upper 70s midweek with humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 In other news, tomorrow looks incredible, sunny skies, and temps in the mid to upper 60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Dailies 16 October the year 11 BDR +9 BOS +6 BDL +6 PVD +6 ORH +4 These positives will actually drive down the monthlies at BOS BDL and perhaps PVD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 55/44. Great day to be outside. Could do without the showers advancing from the W. It would be nice to have a an entire week without rain, or even a 3-4 day stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 18z nam is interesting, moves lp from se va.....nw into lake erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 18z nam is interesting, moves lp from se va.....nw into lake erie. 18z gfs follows suit slings the low nw although further east tracks well west, screaming se winds and boatloads of rain, I think we get some really good winds with this storm and I am stoked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 18z gfs follows suit slings the low nw although further east tracks well west, screaming se winds and boatloads of rain, I think we get some really good winds with this storm and I am stoked! East winds, then occlusion with sw winds...but might be 6 hrs or so of warmer wx verbatim, after occlusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 East winds, then occlusion with sw winds...but might be 6 hrs or so of warmer wx verbatim, after occlusion. You like the idea of the storm tracking closer to the coast right Scooter, I think it ends up further west, hopefully it ends up being fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 You like the idea of the storm tracking closer to the coast right Scooter, I think it ends up further west, hopefully it ends up being fun! Well a storm can track west, but you can still have e-ne winds right up until the occlusion happens...especially if we have ridging to the north. I still think the primary goes west, but I wouldn't be shocked of a triple point tracking over SNE. It still could be warm if we get sw winds after occlusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Off and on lake effect rain showers for hours with slate gray skies all afternoon. Now at 49F.... The wind has finally calmed a bit. 18z gfs follows suit slings the low nw although further east tracks well west, screaming se winds and boatloads of rain, I think we get some really good winds with this storm and I am stoked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 64/44 sw 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Great write up by okx tonight, right in line with what Scooter was saying, strong east winds, with a 50-70 llj, possible coastal advisories and a quick but potent burst of rain ahead of occlusion. Winds are actually getting pretty gusty right now ahead of this CF out of the sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 Great write up by okx tonight, right in line with what Scooter was saying, strong east winds, with a 50-70 llj, possible coastal advisories and a quick but potent burst of rain ahead of occlusion. Winds are actually getting pretty gusty right now ahead of this CF out of the sw. Sweet... should take down more of the leaves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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