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October 2011 Banter/Obs/Disco Part III


HoarfrostHubb

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Heavy, heavy CT Blizz this morning. In his honor I may go on the treadmill for 30 mins.

I'd like to add that I hate cold frontal passages with SW wind CAA.

lol good luck to Kevin! I watched the half marathon from my house this morning... perfect day for running wind so far isn't too bad.

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MWN is going to get a little a windy today / tonight

you think! arrowheadsmiley.png

Today:

In the clouds w/ mixed precipitation showers.

Highs: mid 30s falling to mid 20s; wind chills falling to 0-10 °F

Wind: W 50-70 mph increasing to 75-95 mph w/ higher gusts

Tonight:

In the clouds w/ a chance of snow showers.

Lows: around 20; wind chills 0-10 below °F

Wind: W 70-90 mph increasing to 90-110 mph w/ higher gusts

Tomorrow:

In the clouds w/ a slight chance of snow showers.

Highs: upper 20s; wind chills 0-10 °F

Wind: W 70-90 mph decreasing to 50-70 mph w/ higher gusts

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MWN is going to get a little a windy today / tonight

This Afternoon: A slight chance of freezing rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Strong and damaging winds, with a west wind between 60 and 65 mph, with gusts as high as 105 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: A chance of freezing rain, mainly before 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Wind chill values as low as -10. Strong and damaging winds, with a west wind 85 to 90 mph increasing to between 100 and 105 mph. Winds could gust as high as 145 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday: A slight chance of snow showers and freezing rain before 8am, then a chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. Wind chill values as low as -8. Strong and damaging winds, with a west wind 85 to 90 mph decreasing to between 70 and 75 mph. Winds could gust as high as 145 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Sunday Night: A slight chance of rain and snow showers before 8pm, then a chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Wind chill values as low as -5. Strong and damaging winds, with a west wind between 70 and 75 mph, with gusts as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Monday: A chance of showers, mainly after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 32. Strong and damaging winds, with a west wind between 75 and 80 mph, with gusts as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

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Here we go again, SNE winter! haha.

6z GFS drops the hammer down MRG-style late in the run... that's some chilly air with almost -10C coming close to the U.S. border.

I could dig the last week of October being spent under sub 0C H85s.

12z GFS has -4C for us Fri morning. That's nothing impressive for this time of year, but if we can decouple it should be a solid freeze.
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Meanwhile some sneaky shwrs and even an iso tstm developed over the south coast and are moving off the Cape. Probably some good delta T values over the water helping out with the instability. Some more activity over se mass now with maybe a few more shwrs developing in the interior later on.

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Meanwhile some sneaky shwrs and even an iso tstm developed over the south coast and are moving off the Cape. Probably some good delta T values over the water helping out with the instability. Some more activity over se mass now with maybe a few more shwrs developing in the interior later on.

Reports of pea size hail down there.

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12z GFS has -4C for us Fri morning. That's nothing impressive for this time of year, but if we can decouple it should be a solid freeze.

Yeah not as good of a cold shot as I was hoping for, but its something. I'm afraid that'll modify to like -1C or -2C as we get closer, too.

I was thinking about this the other day and figured this would be a good spot to ask... where can I find info on climo norms for the 850mb level?

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Yeah not as good of a cold shot as I was hoping for, but its something. I'm afraid that'll modify to like -1C or -2C as we get closer, too.

I was thinking about this the other day and figured this would be a good spot to ask... where can I find info on climo norms for the 850mb level?

Maybe, but it's been trending a bit cooler the last 2 runs now as the GFS is keeping the trough from closing off and we get the thermal trough to progressively move through the region while slowly modifying. The 12z EC from yest was more like this although the 00z runs of the GFS/EC were closed off and left us with rotted cold. Hopefully this morning's EC comes in cooler as I'd like to retire this bug.
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I was thinking about this the other day and figured this would be a good spot to ask... where can I find info on climo norms for the 850mb level?

Well Allan has free 850T anomaly maps for the various models. That's a good way to find out what you should be averaging on a day to day basis.

12zGFS850mbTAnomalyNA144.gif

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MWN is going to get a little a windy today / tonight

Yeah I think I may try hiking it tomorrow as I will be heading up that way anyways. Forecast is for 70-90mph with higher gusts and some snow showers.

I don't know if I will make the summit but if anybody would like to join me you are more than welcome. Should at least be able to make it to treeline and get some wind and maybe snow.

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