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12z Model Guidance 12/9

benfica356

By benfica356,
in New York City Metro

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KEITH L.I

KEITH L.I

Posted
Posted

After reading thru this thread today, I can understand the mets who don't want to post here. There is some really awful model analysis going on in here. How is the pattern bad in the long range? Plenty of cold air available, and plenty of storms. And who is saying that storm the following weekend is a rain storm? Surface temperatures are below freezing for a majority of the event. Serious ice threat on the GFS, especially just N & W of I 95. And the GFS tends to UNDERdo low-level cold air in CAD situations. If you don't know what you're looking at, stay quiet and let the meteorologists do more talking.

i agree..long range looks pretty good on the 12z GFS..there are storm threats and it's cold with a west based -Nao..if your looking for tracks of storms 10 days out your wasting your time

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hudsonvalley21

hudsonvalley21

Posted
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After reading thru this thread today, I can understand the mets who don't want to post here. There is some really awful model analysis going on in here. How is the pattern bad in the long range? Plenty of cold air available, and plenty of storms. And who is saying that storm the following weekend is a rain storm? Surface temperatures are below freezing for a majority of the event. Serious ice threat on the GFS, especially just N & W of I 95. And the GFS tends to UNDERdo low-level cold air in CAD situations. If you don't know what you're looking at, stay quiet and let the meteorologists do more talking.

Great post! Read and learn.

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wkd

wkd

Posted
Posted

After reading thru this thread today, I can understand the mets who don't want to post here. There is some really awful model analysis going on in here. How is the pattern bad in the long range? Plenty of cold air available, and plenty of storms. And who is saying that storm the following weekend is a rain storm? Surface temperatures are below freezing for a majority of the event. Serious ice threat on the GFS, especially just N & W of I 95. And the GFS tends to UNDERdo low-level cold air in CAD situations. If you don't know what you're looking at, stay quiet and let the meteorologists do more talking.

THIS!!!!!!!

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Analog96

Analog96

Posted
Posted

THIS!!!!!!!

The worst part of it is, I'm not going to call out names, but we have people in this thread who think they know what they're talking about and really don't, and then we have people who know that they don't know what they're talking about. They see posts by the people who think they know and think that they know, too. And instead of learning, these people are worse off.

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sauss06

sauss06

Posted
Posted

The worst part of it is, I'm not going to call out names, but we have people in this thread who think they know what they're talking about and really don't, and then we have people who know that they don't know what they're talking about. They see posts by the people who think they know and think that they know, too. And instead of learning, these people are worse off.

I try so hard to learn and it does get confusing for someone like me who doesn't know.

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Sampson

Sampson

Posted
Posted

This is one reason I would love to see a Met only forum that non Mets can only view and not post.

Sorry to go off topic.

This is a fantastic idea. :thumbsup:

edit to add: It's rather difficult to weed out the good and bad posters as a novice and a newb. If there were some way to include the experienced/knowledgable non-professionals, I'd be all for that , too. But I realize the selection process could get messy.

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Chris L

Chris L

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well.. it was a big storm for Central, PA, and NY. This storm ended up getting stronger further south than the forecasted storm we have... but this particular storm in 1972 dropped 1 to 2 1/2 feet pretty much widespread... 3 inches in philly. NYC had 6.. I'm certainly not implying that I believe we are getting that much snow here. I'm simply looking through book to find the closest analog I could possibly find.

You know I did bring out the 1972 analog the other day and that was when the sfc low cut a bit too inland; I think it was gonna be a huge dumping for Metro areas (KU Book) then it cut inland.

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NEXtreme

NEXtreme

Posted
Posted

After reading thru this thread today, I can understand the mets who don't want to post here. There is some really awful model analysis going on in here. How is the pattern bad in the long range? Plenty of cold air available, and plenty of storms. And who is saying that storm the following weekend is a rain storm? Surface temperatures are below freezing for a majority of the event. Serious ice threat on the GFS, especially just N & W of I 95. And the GFS tends to UNDERdo low-level cold air in CAD situations. If you don't know what you're looking at, stay quiet and let the meteorologists do more talking.

EXCELLENT! :thumbsup:

This is why I stay quit.:popcorn:

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tornadojay

tornadojay

Posted
Posted

This is a fantastic idea. :thumbsup:

edit to add: It's rather difficult to weed out the good and bad posters as a novice and a newb. If there were some way to include the experienced/knowledgable non-professionals, I'd be all for that , too. But I realize the selection process could get messy.

As a long-time non-practicing Met (about 12 years), I'll be the first to admit that all that knowledge I had when I graduated has slowly seeped from my mind. I didn't even realize half the models we looked at even existed until recently. :whistle: I love listening to the practicing mets and met students who live and breathe this stuff day to day.. and I think there are a lot of completely non-mets who know a lot of stuff too. :thumbsup: ok, back on topic.

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snowlurker

snowlurker

Posted
Posted

After reading thru this thread today, I can understand the mets who don't want to post here. There is some really awful model analysis going on in here. How is the pattern bad in the long range? Plenty of cold air available, and plenty of storms. And who is saying that storm the following weekend is a rain storm? Surface temperatures are below freezing for a majority of the event. Serious ice threat on the GFS, especially just N & W of I 95. And the GFS tends to UNDERdo low-level cold air in CAD situations. If you don't know what you're looking at, stay quiet and let the meteorologists do more talking.

Amen - best post I've seen in several days

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phlwx

phlwx

Posted
Posted

After reading thru this thread today, I can understand the mets who don't want to post here. There is some really awful model analysis going on in here. How is the pattern bad in the long range? Plenty of cold air available, and plenty of storms. And who is saying that storm the following weekend is a rain storm? Surface temperatures are below freezing for a majority of the event. Serious ice threat on the GFS, especially just N & W of I 95. And the GFS tends to UNDERdo low-level cold air in CAD situations. If you don't know what you're looking at, stay quiet and let the meteorologists do more talking.

Why is anyone even looking at the 228 or 240 hour GFS as a certainty given how awful the models have been 9-10 days out?

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

Why is anyone even looking at the 228 or 240 hour GFS as a certainty given how awful the models have been 9-10 days out?

I'm not sure...I generally look at those periods for trends to see if for example a given day the GFS shows the same large scale pattern on the 00, 06, 12, and 18 runs...if it does you can feel with some sort of confidence that general pattern has a chance of occurring...but this season I'm not putting much faith in it even though that overall western trough, mid-nation ridge, and monster vortex in the NE/SE Canada has been showing for many days now.

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phlwx

phlwx

Posted
Posted

I'm not sure...I generally look at those periods for trends to see if for example a given day the GFS shows the same large scale pattern on the 00, 06, 12, and 18 runs...if it does you can feel with some sort of confidence that general pattern has a chance of occurring...but this season I'm not putting much faith in it even though that overall western trough, mid-nation ridge, and monster vortex in the NE/SE Canada has been showing for many days now.

They're certainly somewhat useful guidance tools for pattern but I wouldn't trust them with handling of rain/snow line features in the winter. I'd look at it as a storm to track and probably nothing more than that.

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