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12z Model Guidance 12/9


benfica356

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Literally speaking, the 12z gfs shows heavy precip over DC/BAL with 850's below freezing and surface temps around 35/36. With that being said critical thicknesses are right on I-95. Judging by the surface temperature reflection at 84hrs, there would be a changeover in there meriting at least 1-2 inches if not more of wet snow for DC and poentially Baltimore. This does look more like a glorified clipper than anything else. Decent trend for at least some snow in MD. Its a little edgy, but certainly has a bit of potential.

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well, at least it looks slightly warmer next week. I don't see the -20 850mb isotherm coming near... but it's solidly in that -16 to -20 range... basically, similar 850 temps as today... maybe slightly colder. Probably 25-30 for NYC, 20-25 inland.

Yeah, the GFS has backed way off on the cold shot...a couple runs ago it had us getting all the way down to 2*F now we barely get below 10*F.

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Similar to last year Dec 5? Rain which changed to very wet snow but higher elevations picked up 3-5" and even along the coast had some minor accumulations. The ground was much warmer at the time last year however as we hadn't had much cold air up to that point.

Literally speaking, the 12z gfs shows heavy precip over DC/BAL with 850's below freezing and surface temps around 35/36. With that being said critical thicknesses are right on I-95. Judging by the surface temperature reflection at 84hrs, there would be a changeover in there meriting at least 1-2 inches if not more of wet snow for DC and poentially Baltimore. This does look more like a glorified clipper than anything else. Decent trend for at least some snow in MD. Its a little edgy, but certainly has a bit of potential.

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Literally speaking, the 12z gfs shows heavy precip over DC/BAL with 850's below freezing and surface temps around 35/36. With that being said critical thicknesses are right on I-95. Judging by the surface temperature reflection at 84hrs, there would be a changeover in there meriting at least 1-2 inches if not more of wet snow for DC and poentially Baltimore. This does look more like a glorified clipper than anything else. Decent trend for at least some snow in MD. Its a little edgy, but certainly has a bit of potential.

After having the rain and warmer temps, I think it would be a little difficult for any snow to accumulate with temps around 35 to 36..By the time temps get down below 32 most of the precip would probably be out.

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Literally speaking, the 12z gfs shows heavy precip over DC/BAL with 850's below freezing and surface temps around 35/36. With that being said critical thicknesses are right on I-95. Judging by the surface temperature reflection at 84hrs, there would be a changeover in there meriting at least 1-2 inches if not more of wet snow for DC and poentially Baltimore. This does look more like a glorified clipper than anything else. Decent trend for at least some snow in MD. Its a little edgy, but certainly has a bit of potential.

i dunno...at hr 81, your 925mb temps just hit 0 with no precip left and the frz line is still to your west meaning their are boundry layer issues at first glance.

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i dunno...at hr 81, your 925mb temps just hit 0 with no precip left and the frz line is still to your west meaning their are boundry layer issues at first glance.

I don't see this as much more than a cold front for my area. Maybe a little mixed bag at the start, but little to get excited about. Of course, I expect a totally different model forecast by tomorrow morning, even this afternoon.

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Guest Patrick

Just to keep things in perspective, it looks like there is 12Z model consensus for a cold, wind-driven rain in the NYC metro area, with the possibility for some very insignificant snowflakes at the end.

One of the mets mentioned that models would begin to converge on a solution by this evening, once better data samples are available in the Pac.

i dunno...at hr 81, your 925mb temps just hit 0 with no precip left and the frz line is still to your west meaning their are boundry layer issues at first glance.

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Looks like a cold front with some rain, then colder. Nothing incredible in terms of cold anymore, just a tad colder than it has been. The highs will probably be an average of 5 degrees colder than they have been and the lows will be a few degrees colder than they have been unless the models keep moderating the cold shot.

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rain storm over the area at hr 228 with a west to east moving storm.

Oh the joy, more rain, what a great entrance to Spring? Just Kidding, let me guess, it get's cold right after that.

That GOA low is just giving a big middle finger to snow lovers in the east, it just proves that a good pacific is much better than having a good Atlantic. Perhaps if we had that epic block from last winter, then we might have had a shot.

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Literally speaking, the 12z gfs shows heavy precip over DC/BAL with 850's below freezing and surface temps around 35/36. With that being said critical thicknesses are right on I-95. Judging by the surface temperature reflection at 84hrs, there would be a changeover in there meriting at least 1-2 inches if not more of wet snow for DC and poentially Baltimore. This does look more like a glorified clipper than anything else. Decent trend for at least some snow in MD. Its a little edgy, but certainly has a bit of potential.

Precip is for the past 6 hours though...it may be rain to end as snow.

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Precip is for the past 6 hours though...it may be rain to end as snow.

It's no blizzard, but look at the 78hr panel on the GFS. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_078.shtml

Looks like a quick burst of moderate snow behind the front. Perhaps enough for a couple inches late Sunday. I'd like to see the 2M temps just be sure. Can anybody get those for the big cities at 78hr? Thx!

This is a very interesting post, i would take this in a heartbeat.

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Its a shame to see such great blocking go to waste when its available. But until the Pacific gives us something to work with I think the EC is in trouble when it comes to snow chances.

This pattern is just looking like crap in the long range now. How did the euro look last night in the long range?

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This is a very interesting post, i would take this in a heartbeat.

The info wxUSAF posted couldn't be any further from the truth. Those panels show the precip from the past 6 hrs and the temps AT hour 78. Meaning, all that precip has fallen WELL before temops have crashed.

EDIT - and I say this with all do respect as he is a met, but honestly, I don't see how he can say such things.

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After reading thru this thread today, I can understand the mets who don't want to post here. There is some really awful model analysis going on in here. How is the pattern bad in the long range? Plenty of cold air available, and plenty of storms. And who is saying that storm the following weekend is a rain storm? Surface temperatures are below freezing for a majority of the event. Serious ice threat on the GFS, especially just N & W of I 95. And the GFS tends to UNDERdo low-level cold air in CAD situations. If you don't know what you're looking at, stay quiet and let the meteorologists do more talking.

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