tornadojay Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Was just looking through the KU book. Closest analog I could find was Feb 18-20, 1972. The 500 mb pattern looks very similar to this storm, plus the surface features had a very similar set-up.. Primary through the lakes, cold front down the eastern seaboard.. wave forms along the front and coastal makes it's way up the coast. Anyone else see any other analogs or think this one may be pretty close?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nynjpaweather Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I still think it will be hard for the adirondacks to have a mostly snow event out of this, looking more like a mix to maybe some backside snow. I dont see any potential right now closer to the coast, even if we are talking about NW NJ or the lower HV. Getting snow on the backside as the cold moves in is very tricky and often overforecasted by the models. Agree with the mix. Concerned about the low level cold air not being given it's due for Sunday morning, then virga sets in and the temperatures just don't rise all that much for say around the Poconos area on NE. Possibly even extreme NW Sussex county. Those locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 do you have any information about that storm jay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 do you have any information about that storm jay? 1972: “George Washington Snowstorm” in the northeast. Storm system developed in Georgia on the eighteenth and spread snow up the Appalachians into New England. Blizzard conditions developed in Pennsylvania on the nineteenth. I-80 was forced to close in the Keystone State. Winds of up to fifty mph created snowdrifts of up to twenty feet in some sections of north central Pennsylvania. Thousands of motorists were stranded. Coastal flooding resulted from six to eight foot tides. Thousands were left homeless by the coastal flooding. Eastham, MA reported winds to one hundred mph. The storm was even said to have an “eye”. Some snow totals: Towanda, PA thirty inches; Williamsport twenty three inches; English Center, PA twenty seven inches; State College, PA twelve inches; Binghamton, NY twenty four inches; Mill Hill, PA forty four inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Was just looking through the KU book. Closest analog I could find was Feb 18-20, 1972. The 500 mb pattern looks very similar to this storm, plus the surface features had a very similar set-up.. Primary through the lakes, cold front down the eastern seaboard.. wave forms along the front and coastal makes it's way up the coast. Anyone else see any other analogs or think this one may be pretty close?? The mean COOP analogs have something pretty reasonable: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/wwproducts.php?reg=EAST&model=GFS212&fhr=072&flg=new&HH=0&map=COOPmean And here's the top 15 analogs by score http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EAST&model=GFS212&fhr=072&flg=new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 do you have any information about that storm jay? well.. it was a big storm for Central, PA, and NY. This storm ended up getting stronger further south than the forecasted storm we have... but this particular storm in 1972 dropped 1 to 2 1/2 feet pretty much widespread... 3 inches in philly. NYC had 6.. I'm certainly not implying that I believe we are getting that much snow here. I'm simply looking through book to find the closest analog I could possibly find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 Off-topic but I just looked outside and my pool and parts of my driveway are covered with some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The mean COOP analogs have something pretty reasonable: http://www.eas.slu.e...=0&map=COOPmean And here's the top 15 analogs by score http://www.eas.slu.e...fhr=072&flg=new cool site. Never saw that one before. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Here in the NW Philly burbs that storm resulted in 13.8" of snow... quote name='tornadojay' timestamp='1291907366' post='85054'] well.. it was a big storm for Central, PA, and NY. This storm ended up getting stronger further south than the forecasted storm we have... but this particular storm in 1972 dropped 1 to 2 1/2 feet pretty much widespread... 3 inches in philly. NYC had 6.. I'm certainly not implying that I believe we are getting that much snow here. I'm simply looking through book to find the closest analog I could possibly find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 cool site. Never saw that one before. Thanks! No problem, it has awesome stuff when you click on individual events. Also, scroll down for winter weather guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 well... the 12Z GFS is just starting to roll in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 do you have any information about that storm jay? Along the coast 2/72 was one of the most extreme cases of snow to rain to snow, at least for western LI. There was a heavy front end dump followed by a day of rain followed by another heavy accumulation (~6 inches) Saturday night. I don't think the records accurately reflect that. I suspect a lot of the records are just showing the snow on the ground at the end. I think the way we measure today, most people would have recorded 10 - 12" that day (at least in NE Nassau). Of course I wasn't very old at the time, but I do remember that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nynjpaweather Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Wouldn't forecast for a 72 result, but it's something to keep mindful of as we progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Along the coast 2/72 was one of the most extreme cases of snow to rain to snow, at least for western LI. There was a heavy front end dump followed by a day of rain followed by another heavy accumulation (~6 inches) Saturday night. I don't think the records accurately reflect that. I suspect a lot of the records are just showing the snow on the ground at the end. I think the way we measure today, most people would have recorded 10 - 12" that day (at least in NE Nassau). Of course I wasn't very old at the time, but I do remember that one. I remember it..was a Friday night thru Saturday night deal..forecast was for just rain along the coast..started raining at about 10pm..I gave up on the storm and went to sleep..about 3 in the morning I woke up and heard that silence when it snows in the city..looked out my window..heavy snow was falling..turned on the radio and heard the NWB put up heavy snow warnings..I felt this could be another Lindsay storm..However by 7am it changed to rain in Brooklyn.about 4 inches was becoming slush.it rained all day and washed away all the accumulation.Around 7pm it changed back to snow and another inch fell, follwed by windy and cold weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I remember it..was a Friday night thru Saturday night deal..forecast was for just rain along the coast..started raining at about 10pm..I gave up on the storm and went to sleep..about 3 in the morning I woke up and heard that silence when it snows in the city..looked out my window..heavy snow was falling..turned on the radio and heard the NWB put up heavy snow warnings..I felt this could be another Lindsay storm..However by 7am it changed to rain in Brooklyn.about 4 inches was becoming slush.it rained all day and washed away all the accumulation.Around 7pm it changed back to snow and another inch fell, follwed by windy and cold weather We has a solid 6" Saturday night in NE Nassau County on top of whatever slush was left over from Saturday morning. My father took us sledding Sunday and I recall the car actually getting stuck in the snow where we parked. The obs from HPN that day show how close a call it was: http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/Khpn/1972/2/19/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA You can change the station identifier to see other local spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The GFS is now out through 36 hours. Where's John and Tombo?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Not that far out yet according to ewall... is there a better site to use? The GFS is now out through 36 hours. Where's John and Tombo?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 im right here, just woke up...12z looks a lot more amplified than 6z...i wonder if we get an earlier phase here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Way more amplified with the first shortwave this run over Iowa...looks more like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I remember it..was a Friday night thru Saturday night deal..forecast was for just rain along the coast..started raining at about 10pm..I gave up on the storm and went to sleep..about 3 in the morning I woke up and heard that silence when it snows in the city..looked out my window..heavy snow was falling..turned on the radio and heard the NWB put up heavy snow warnings..I felt this could be another Lindsay storm..However by 7am it changed to rain in Brooklyn.about 4 inches was becoming slush.it rained all day and washed away all the accumulation.Around 7pm it changed back to snow and another inch fell, follwed by windy and cold weather I was working that day in downtown Brooklyn...It was a slushy 4" that changed to heavy rain that washed away most of it but we did get a quick 1-2" on the back side...February 1972 had two other significant storms...About 4.7" on the 6-7th and the surprise 5.2" on the 23-24th...all snow events... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 54 hrs the H5 shortwave is closed over Iowa..huge change since yesterday when the GFS had this shortwave open and about 300 miles further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 CAD holding on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The Euro solution yesterday looks likes it's winning out..not surprised at all..why even look at the other guidence?..it does it year after year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 its going with the wave on the front or coastal development...fwiw the ukie is way south http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MODEL=ukmet&TIME=2010120912®ION=USLCC&FCST=all&LEVEL=850&F1=tmpc&F2=none&C2=tmpc&VEC=none&C1=pmsl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Pretty much looks like the Euro at 84 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 looks like maybe a good 5-7 inches worth of snow in central NY... from Binghamton, through Rome/Utica, Syracuse, etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Pretty much looks like the Euro at 84 hrs similar, but colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 so the primary goes through the lakes, secondary forms and goes through NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 looks like maybe a good 5-7 inches worth of snow in central NY... from Binghamton, through Rome/Utica, Syracuse, etc.. how does it look fo buf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Honestly, to me it looks like there is no secondary...really, just a clipper/frontal passage that starts to bomb out over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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