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12z Model Guidance 12/9


benfica356

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Was just looking through the KU book. Closest analog I could find was Feb 18-20, 1972. The 500 mb pattern looks very similar to this storm, plus the surface features had a very similar set-up.. Primary through the lakes, cold front down the eastern seaboard.. wave forms along the front and coastal makes it's way up the coast.

Anyone else see any other analogs or think this one may be pretty close??

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I still think it will be hard for the adirondacks to have a mostly snow event out of this, looking more like a mix to maybe some backside snow. I dont see any potential right now closer to the coast, even if we are talking about NW NJ or the lower HV. Getting snow on the backside as the cold moves in is very tricky and often overforecasted by the models.

Agree with the mix. Concerned about the low level cold air not being given it's due for Sunday morning, then virga sets in and the temperatures just don't rise all that much for say around the Poconos area on NE. Possibly even extreme NW Sussex county. Those locations.

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do you have any information about that storm jay?

  • 1972: “George Washington Snowstorm” in the northeast. Storm system developed in Georgia on the eighteenth and spread snow up the Appalachians into New England. Blizzard conditions developed in Pennsylvania on the nineteenth. I-80 was forced to close in the Keystone State. Winds of up to fifty mph created snowdrifts of up to twenty feet in some sections of north central Pennsylvania. Thousands of motorists were stranded. Coastal flooding resulted from six to eight foot tides. Thousands were left homeless by the coastal flooding. Eastham, MA reported winds to one hundred mph. The storm was even said to have an “eye”. Some snow totals: Towanda, PA thirty inches; Williamsport twenty three inches; English Center, PA twenty seven inches; State College, PA twelve inches; Binghamton, NY twenty four inches; Mill Hill, PA forty four inches.

19720218-19720220-4.77.jpg

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Was just looking through the KU book. Closest analog I could find was Feb 18-20, 1972. The 500 mb pattern looks very similar to this storm, plus the surface features had a very similar set-up.. Primary through the lakes, cold front down the eastern seaboard.. wave forms along the front and coastal makes it's way up the coast.

Anyone else see any other analogs or think this one may be pretty close??

The mean COOP analogs have something pretty reasonable:

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/wwproducts.php?reg=EAST&model=GFS212&fhr=072&flg=new&HH=0&map=COOPmean

And here's the top 15 analogs by score

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EAST&model=GFS212&fhr=072&flg=new

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do you have any information about that storm jay?

well.. it was a big storm for Central, PA, and NY. This storm ended up getting stronger further south than the forecasted storm we have... but this particular storm in 1972 dropped 1 to 2 1/2 feet pretty much widespread... 3 inches in philly. NYC had 6.. I'm certainly not implying that I believe we are getting that much snow here. I'm simply looking through book to find the closest analog I could possibly find.

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Here in the NW Philly burbs that storm resulted in 13.8" of snow...

quote name='tornadojay' timestamp='1291907366' post='85054']

well.. it was a big storm for Central, PA, and NY. This storm ended up getting stronger further south than the forecasted storm we have... but this particular storm in 1972 dropped 1 to 2 1/2 feet pretty much widespread... 3 inches in philly. NYC had 6.. I'm certainly not implying that I believe we are getting that much snow here. I'm simply looking through book to find the closest analog I could possibly find.

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do you have any information about that storm jay?

Along the coast 2/72 was one of the most extreme cases of snow to rain to snow, at least for western LI. There was a heavy front end dump followed by a day of rain followed by another heavy accumulation (~6 inches) Saturday night. I don't think the records accurately reflect that. I suspect a lot of the records are just showing the snow on the ground at the end. I think the way we measure today, most people would have recorded 10 - 12" that day (at least in NE Nassau).

Of course I wasn't very old at the time, but I do remember that one.

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Along the coast 2/72 was one of the most extreme cases of snow to rain to snow, at least for western LI. There was a heavy front end dump followed by a day of rain followed by another heavy accumulation (~6 inches) Saturday night. I don't think the records accurately reflect that. I suspect a lot of the records are just showing the snow on the ground at the end. I think the way we measure today, most people would have recorded 10 - 12" that day (at least in NE Nassau).

Of course I wasn't very old at the time, but I do remember that one.

I remember it..was a Friday night thru Saturday night deal..forecast was for just rain along the coast..started raining at about 10pm..I gave up on the storm and went to sleep..about 3 in the morning I woke up and heard that silence when it snows in the city..looked out my window..heavy snow was falling..turned on the radio and heard the NWB put up heavy snow warnings..I felt this could be another Lindsay storm..However by 7am it changed to rain in Brooklyn.about 4 inches was becoming slush.it rained all day and washed away all the accumulation.Around 7pm it changed back to snow and another inch fell, follwed by windy and cold weather

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I remember it..was a Friday night thru Saturday night deal..forecast was for just rain along the coast..started raining at about 10pm..I gave up on the storm and went to sleep..about 3 in the morning I woke up and heard that silence when it snows in the city..looked out my window..heavy snow was falling..turned on the radio and heard the NWB put up heavy snow warnings..I felt this could be another Lindsay storm..However by 7am it changed to rain in Brooklyn.about 4 inches was becoming slush.it rained all day and washed away all the accumulation.Around 7pm it changed back to snow and another inch fell, follwed by windy and cold weather

We has a solid 6" Saturday night in NE Nassau County on top of whatever slush was left over from Saturday morning. My father took us sledding Sunday and I recall the car actually getting stuck in the snow where we parked. The obs from HPN that day show how close a call it was:

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/Khpn/1972/2/19/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

You can change the station identifier to see other local spots.

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Guest Patrick

Not that far out yet according to ewall... is there a better site to use?

The GFS is now out through 36 hours. Where's John and Tombo?? :unsure:

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I remember it..was a Friday night thru Saturday night deal..forecast was for just rain along the coast..started raining at about 10pm..I gave up on the storm and went to sleep..about 3 in the morning I woke up and heard that silence when it snows in the city..looked out my window..heavy snow was falling..turned on the radio and heard the NWB put up heavy snow warnings..I felt this could be another Lindsay storm..However by 7am it changed to rain in Brooklyn.about 4 inches was becoming slush.it rained all day and washed away all the accumulation.Around 7pm it changed back to snow and another inch fell, follwed by windy and cold weather

I was working that day in downtown Brooklyn...It was a slushy 4" that changed to heavy rain that washed away most of it but we did get a quick 1-2" on the back side...February 1972 had two other significant storms...About 4.7" on the 6-7th and the surprise 5.2" on the 23-24th...all snow events...

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