jdrenken Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 He caters to both the MW and NE folks by leaving the options wide open in his last statement regarding the blocking. Just like JB's 'Battle Zone' forecast last year was so large, DT mentioning both possibilities of the blocking gives him the opportunity to claim victory either way. Very smart marketing on his part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 10, 2011 Author Share Posted October 10, 2011 It will come back. We've just substituted December now. I never remember December's like what we've experienced.....ever. Growing up, I was used to December featuring mixed events and it was more January and February...heck even March where we cashed in. I honestly believe we have lost March as a wintry month overall. Sure we'll have snow..but it's just not a wintry month anymore. I'd much rather have an awesome late Nov- Feb..and sacrifice March..since snowcover doesn't last and it's springtime season anyway. I think most would agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 He caters to both the MW and NE folks by leaving the options wide open in his last statement regarding the blocking. Just like JB's 'Battle Zone' forecast last year was so large, DT mentioning both possibilities of the blocking gives him the opportunity to claim victory either way. Very smart marketing on his part. They all do that, but I think it's also good to mention how things could bust. If I do a briefing, I try to mention the possibilities of why my forecast may bust, by talking about the variables at play, but I also give a confidence level too. It doesn't mean crap if you give a forecast of one thing and say..."well but I could see this happening too." I like to give them a little glimpse of things at play, especially if it really is a tricky call, but in the end you have to make a call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I honestly believe we have lost March as a wintry month overall. Sure we'll have snow..but it's just not a wintry month anymore. I'd much rather have an awesome late Nov- Feb..and sacrifice March..since snowcover doesn't last and it's springtime season anyway. I think most would agree Dude March is a winter month in my book. If I had three solid months of winter Id' agree, but we've been having these 6-8 week periods it seems. I mean sure last February wasn't a disaster, but it was a slow and tedious death to snowpack. We gotta get Feb and March back into the swing of things. I can't stand looking at dead ground during that time and having no wintry storms. I know snow doesn't last too long during that month, but it's nice to track impending storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 They all do that, but I think it's also good to mention how things could bust. If I do a briefing, I try to mention the possibilities of why my forecast may bust, by talking about the variables at play, but I also give a confidence level too. It doesn't mean crap if you give a forecast of one thing and say..."well but I could see this happening too." I like to give them a little glimpse of things at play, especially if it really is a tricky call, but in the end you have to make a call. Not to mention the blocking fluctuates. Yes, when you look at the ESRL maps after the fact you will see where the predominate blocking was...but it does move from East-West based here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Nice writeup by DT. Seems like many are harping on a very cold December. Seeing how strong the Nina gets and whether we can get some solid high latitude blocking will likely make the difference. and if the cold December doesnt materialize, look for the weenies to come out swining... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 November may be one of those months where we flip the switch at some point in the month. I was thinking the same thing. Probably right around my birthday....this season reminds me alot of '00-'01. Weak west QBO=sne pants tent...couple that with all of the recurves featured in this lame azz tropical season and this winter won't be lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I have no use for cold without snow. Would rather sunny and 50 then sunny at 10 in February lol. I love extreme weather... not really extreme temperatures. have to concur with much of this. you could cut the ennui with a knife it gets so thick when it is 10F over bear ground on January 10, meanwhile, the extended range models have 0 QPF as far as the teleconnector eyes could see.... ugh... If you got any means to do it, you leave this part of the country when it does that - period! that sort of scenario is second only to the enitre month of April. i will admit, though, that i am just enough of a nerd to want to see how cold it can get - temp extremes can by entertaining on some dimented level. i remember a demo once in Tower MN on some morning ...-43F or some deal like that; the reporter took a cup of boiling water and flung it into the air. Half the mass exploded with a violent hiss; the other half fell solid like someone had just stoned a chandlier... interesting physics at such extremes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Dude March is a winter month in my book. If I had three solid months of winter Id' agree, but we've been having these 6-8 week periods it seems. I mean sure last February wasn't a disaster, but it was a slow and tedious death to snowpack. We gotta get Feb and March back into the swing of things. I can't stand looking at dead ground during that time and having no wintry storms. I know snow doesn't last too long during that month, but it's nice to track impending storms. It's hard to distinguish between the relevance of the various man-made temporal boundaries.... In fact, there's nothing particularly eventful about the fact that it is March 20th or 23rd, or December 20th or 23rd, any given year... I'm sure to a lot of anemic low -blood pressure types it feels like winter for all but those dates that fall between circa June 19 through July 4th. March 1, spring according to the science Meteorology; but I think I read somewhere the only reason they did that was to have nice neat orderly numbers of day divided across the year for doing the climate arm. Seeing as there have been several big bombs of blue snow in the first 10 days of April argues pretty strongly to the futility of calling March spring. it's obviously a matter of pertinence to latitude. Climate wise, spring really should be about April 10 for the BOS-ALB-BUF latitudes... even better, look at the last 200 years of temperature and graph them - I bet the steepest part of the slope occurs in mid April, not on March 21. oy vay - now there's 5 calendars: Met, Julian, climate, the Anemics, and ...Scott. Well, 6 actually... John's calendar does not include April... there are 11 months out of the year on John's calendar because April is dead to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Why does he even note the "Farmer's Almanac"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Why does he even note the "Farmer's Almanac"? He'll mention as many other outlooks as possible in order to put his on a pedestal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 He'll mention as many other outlooks as possible in order to put his on a pedestal ...detecting a little DT antithesis here ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I was thinking the same thing. Probably right around my birthday....this season reminds me alot of '00-'01. Weak west QBO=sne pants tent...couple that with all of the recurves featured in this lame azz tropical season and this winter won't be lame. I recall October being very different. I think there is some validity to that season but others are considerably higher such as 3 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 <b></b><b></b><b></b>I recall October being very different. I think there is some validity to that season but others are considerably higher such as 3 years ago. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBOS/2000/10/10/MonthlyHistory.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 ...detecting a little DT antithesis here ... He's pretty smart, and I definitely look forward to reading his thoughts, but otherwise I think he's an egotistical hypocrite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Tl;dr Tried to look at it on my phone and I could not read all the crappy yellow text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Part of the reason March has mostly been a dud recently is we've had little blocking in that month. The time we had some blocking was the first half of March 2010, but the blocking was so exotic, that it actually just gave us that rotted out stale 40F airmass. Once we get some decent blocking again...and it doesn't just have to be NAO blocking....March will appear again. Its really been since 2005 we had a good pattern for March. 2007 wasn't terrible and neither was last March after about the 18th...but it was kind of too late to really cash in well last year. We got that one storm around April fools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 have to concur with much of this. you could cut the ennui with a knife it gets so thick when it is 10F over bear ground on January 10, meanwhile, the extended range models have 0 QPF as far as the teleconnector eyes could see.... ugh... If you got any means to do it, you leave this part of the country when it does that - period! that sort of scenario is second only to the enitre month of April. i will admit, though, that i am just enough of a nerd to want to see how cold it can get - temp extremes can by entertaining on some dimented level. i remember a demo once in Tower MN on some morning ...-43F or some deal like that; the reporter took a cup of boiling water and flung it into the air. Half the mass exploded with a violent hiss; the other half fell solid like someone had just stoned a chandlier... interesting physics at such extremes. I don't know about other people on here, but I have a snow pack fetish so I like it to stay below 32 for most of the winter. Last year was an awesome snow pack. I think kevin would agree. To your point though... I'd take 50 and sunny of 0 and sunny any day, especially during the work week. cleaning windows of frost when its below zero on a monday just sucks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Part of the reason March has mostly been a dud recently is we've had little blocking in that month. The time we had some blocking was the first half of March 2010, but the blocking was so exotic, that it actually just gave us that rotted out stale 40F airmass. Once we get some decent blocking again...and it doesn't just have to be NAO blocking....March will appear again. Its really been since 2005 we had a good pattern for March. 2007 wasn't terrible and neither was last March after about the 18th...but it was kind of too late to really cash in well last year. We got that one storm around April fools. Yes and we've had a recent spell of Nina's that argue for a more abrupt end to winter. Give us perhaps a change in ENSO and blocking like you said, and it will come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 It's hard to distinguish between the relevance of the various man-made temporal boundaries.... In fact, there's nothing particularly eventful about the fact that it is March 20th or 23rd, or December 20th or 23rd, any given year... I'm sure to a lot of anemic low -blood pressure types it feels like winter for all but those dates that fall between circa June 19 through July 4th. March 1, spring according to the science Meteorology; but I think I read somewhere the only reason they did that was to have nice neat orderly numbers of day divided across the year for doing the climate arm. Seeing as there have been several big bombs of blue snow in the first 10 days of April argues pretty strongly to the futility of calling March spring. it's obviously a matter of pertinence to latitude. Climate wise, spring really should be about April 10 for the BOS-ALB-BUF latitudes... even better, look at the last 200 years of temperature and graph them - I bet the steepest part of the slope occurs in mid April, not on March 21. oy vay - now there's 5 calendars: Met, Julian, climate, the Anemics, and ...Scott. Well, 6 actually... John's calendar does not include April... there are 11 months out of the year on John's calendar because April is dead to me. LOL, I view sunny and 45 in March as a wasted airmass of -6C at 850. That's how my weenie mind works. So my bum is warm when I get into my car in the aftn, big deal. I miss the March storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Yes and we've had a recent spell of Nina's that argue for a more abrupt end to winter. Give us perhaps a change in ENSO and blocking like you said, and it will come back. Our Decembers should not be nearly as snowy as they have been recently either. But we've been absolutely blasted in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Our Decembers should not be nearly as snowy as they have been recently either. But we've been absolutely blasted in December. These Decembers have been nothing like I've ever seen. Except for Dec '95...it's been the old snow to rain or rain to snow deal many times. This is nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 These Decembers have been nothing like I've ever seen. Except for Dec '95...it's been the old snow to rain or rain to snow deal many times. This is nuts. And we've done it in both very +NAO patterns and very -NAO patterns in December recently. The one constant in all those December is we've seen good ridging over AK...basically getting some real cold to spill south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 I recall October being very different. I think there is some validity to that season but others are considerably higher such as 3 years ago. I'm not really talking about recent weather, just alluding to the fact that we will probably snap like a rubber band into winter around mid Nov, and that the interior may very well do better this season. Anecdotal in large part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 He's pretty smart, and I definitely look forward to reading his thoughts, but otherwise I think he's an egotistical hypocrite His problem is that he is very insecure and I promise you that he has low self esteem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Re: Decembers Yes recent ones have been stellar. Ironically from the late 50s through the 60s that was the norm...lasted into the mid 70s and then took a 20-30 year hiatus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Re: Decembers Yes recent ones have been stellar. Ironically from the late 50s through the 60s that was the norm...lasted into the mid 70s and then took a 20-30 year hiatus. Yeah after the great December of 1975 in BOS and the good December of 1976, there was really only one good December in the next 19 years, and that was 1981....had to wait until 1995 to get a good one again...and of course the decade of the 2000s has been stellar. 1993 snapped at the end of the month, but it was largely not a good winter month. 1989 was frigid, but sucked for snow. The interior had a few good Decembers in there, but I was speaking for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Yeah after the great December of 1975 in BOS and the good December of 1976, there was really only one good December in the next 19 years, and that was 1981....had to wait until 1995 to get a good one again...and of course the decade of the 2000s has been stellar. 1993 snapped at the end of the month, but it was largely not a good winter month. 1989 was frigid, but sucked for snow. The interior had a few good Decembers in there, but I was speaking for BOS. Any theories on why there are 20-30 year semicycles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Interesting.. Not to be contrarian, Will but I serious thought/remember late February through March (not last year but the year before) having so much blocking actually that it began retrograding SW - so we actually end up with warm heights aloft from that anomalous source... In fact, that same mid/ U/A positive tendency then merged with the Bermuda ridge as the summer neared and end up with a hot summer out out of the deal. Eh, either way.... the last time we have a nice protracted finish where it snowed and kept a pack on the ground through early April was some 5 or 6 years ago at this point. And I agree with the sentiment et al that so long as circa March 15 through April 20 is maddeningly eventless to begin with, it would be nice to instead hold onto winter a bit longer. ...IF we could have our druthers that is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Interesting.. Not to be contrarian, Will but I serious thought/remember late February through March (not last year but the year before) having so much blocking actually that it began retrograding SW - so we actually end up with warm heights aloft from that anomalous source... In fact, that same mid/ U/A positive tendency then merged with the Bermuda ridge as the summer neared and end up with a hot summer out out of the deal. Eh, either way.... the last time we have a nice protracted finish where it snowed and kept a pack on the ground through early April was some 5 or 6 years ago at this point. And I agree with the sentiment et al that so long as circa March 15 through April 20 is maddeningly eventless to begin with, it would be nice to instead hold onto winter a bit longer. ...IF we could have our druthers that is... I mentioned that. I said March 2010 had such exotic blocking that we got a rotted out maritime airmass. But most of the other recent Marches have lacked very good setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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