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WXRISK'S Prelim winter forecast


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I'm not a fan of DT's personality but I do like the methodology of his forecast. There is sound reasoning (although I'm not sure about the soil moisture part) and we'll see what happens.

95-96 keeps getting thrown around. I'm not expecting anything like that year but you never know. The interesting thing about that winter in the MA area is that even if you took away the big storm at DCA, the seasonal total would still have been 30". It was a very active winter. A lot of mets are calling for an active EC winter. Snow, rain or ice is fine with me. I really enjoy tracking threats so I hope there is plenty to track this year even if we don't climo snowfall. I would prefer that over only having a couple of threats to track all season and hitting climo snow.

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He's from Richmond anyway, so either he's DT or a cult follower. Either way, he won't be here long.

Nah actually just like weather......something you all talk very little about without some sort of belittling or trashing someone elses forecast, but yet again I see no winter forecast from you......... If you have some info to bring to the table cool.....but if you are just gonna act like a tool and talk about someone who hasnt posted here in 2 years maybe you should grow up and focus more on weather........ this kind of thread and BS is what makes this forum such trash sometimes

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Nah actually just like weather......something you all talk very little about without some sort of belittling or trashing someone elses forecast, but yet again I see no winter forecast from you......... If you have some info to bring to the table cool.....but if you are just gonna act like a tool and talk about someone who hasnt posted here in 2 years maybe you should grow up and focus more on weather........ this kind of thread and BS is what makes this forum such trash sometimes

You don't need to make a forecast to criticize a forecast

This forum hasn't even been around for one year (as American Weather), and DT was here posting last winter until he was banned for "acting like a tool."

That being said, there are two other threads (one in the New England forum, one in NYC) also discussing DT's forecast, with some constructive posts and some criticism posts mixed in.

http://www.americanw...inter-forecast/

http://www.americanw...winter-outlook/

Besides, it's more about belittling the forecaster, not the forecast. There's no need to defend a man who will react negatively to any and all criticisms (even legitimate ones) whist spewing poor spelling and grammar at the same time.

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As far as the actual forecast... the reasoning is fairly sound, though I (and others) think that he likes putting too much emphasis on soil moisture during the winter (though it looks like the TX drought could have a noticeable impact this year). His forecast is fairly agreeable, and I like his emphasis on 1995 and the mention of 1962 as these are two years that I used in my forecast as well.

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You don't need to make a forecast to criticize a forecast

This forum hasn't even been around for one year (as American Weather), and DT was here posting last winter until he was banned for "acting like a tool."

That being said, there are two other threads (one in the New England forum, one in NYC) also discussing DT's forecast, with some constructive posts and some criticism posts mixed in.

http://www.americanw...inter-forecast/

http://www.americanw...winter-outlook/

Besides, it's more about belittling the forecaster, not the forecast. There's no need to defend a man who will react negatively to any and all criticisms (even legitimate ones) whist spewing poor spelling and grammar at the same time.

-----

As far as the actual forecast... the reasoning is fairly sound, though I (and others) think that he likes putting too much emphasis on soil moisture during the winter (though it looks like the TX drought could have a noticeable impact this year). His forecast is fairly agreeable, and I like his emphasis on 1995 and the mention of 1962 as these are two years that I used in my forecast as well.

He does act like a tool.......but does acting like a tool towards a tool make anything better, nah not really!!!!!!!! I def. follow you and some others on here and only use DT as a reference tool just like all of your opinions

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He does act like a tool.......but does acting like a tool towards a tool make anything better, nah not really!!!!!!!! I def. follow you and some others on here and only use DT as a reference tool just like all of your opinions

I suppose you have a point there, though the way you've conveyed it hasn't really helped.

And before others point it out, I do acknowledge the hypocrisy of that last bit I wrote :P

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After looking his presentation over on the new england forum. I'd argue that there is litle evidence that soil moisture will have that much impact on the storm track. I found his argument that a weak easterly qbo is good for blocking while a strong one isn't interesting as it sort of meshes with HM's post about keeping the westerly winds at 500 mb leading to more blocking. One other caveat about the forecast is the snow in eurasia is currently below average and is well behind last year. That is not so god for blocking. The solar situation also is not quite as good though it's still pretty good.

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After looking his presentation over on the new england forum. I'd argue that there is litle evidence that soil moisture will have that much impact on the storm track. I found his argument that a weak easterly qbo is good for blocking while a strong one isn't interesting as it sort of meshes with HM's post about keeping the westerly winds at 500 mb leading to more blocking. One other caveat about the forecast is the snow in eurasia is currently below average and is well behind last year. That is not so god for blocking. The solar situation also is not quite as good though it's still pretty good.

I believe you meant 50 mb.

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