AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted October 9, 2011 Author Share Posted October 9, 2011 This is what happens when it doesn't rain in Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Are you going to post a winter forecast this year? Where have you been man? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexo Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 that feel when the wall of rain along the IH-35 corridor will never make it here it's not a good feeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted October 9, 2011 Author Share Posted October 9, 2011 Are you going to post a winter forecast this year? Where have you been man? I've been doing work that people wouldn't really want to discuss here. It mostly has to do with planetary cycles and geometric angles since I think that is the source. Long story short, something similar to 09-10 may be possible this year! Definitely drier though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted October 9, 2011 Author Share Posted October 9, 2011 that feel when the wall of rain along the IH-35 corridor will never make it here it's not a good feeling Just turn it into a good feeling and it will happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 I've been doing work that people wouldn't really want to discuss here. It mostly has to do with planetary cycles and geometric angles since I think that is the source. Long story short, something similar to 09-10 may be possible this year! El Nino analog? Why? I would be interested if you posted a forecast or even some thoughts on this winter if you don't want to do a full forecast. You had a lot of talent (and probably still do). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexo Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 The following is an IMBY post: A welcome sight for the state for sure, but unfortunately the upper level low responsible for this mess will be lifting north instead of east, which would have been a perfect position climatologically for this side of the state to cash in Our only saving grace tomorrow will be streamer showers and storms moving off the Gulf as we're seeing at this hour, and maybe some outflow boundaries from the convection off to the west could spark some storms for us as well during the heat of the day... We've got a moist atmosphere overhead, but as we've seen for many months now, not much to trigger anything organized that would actually put a big ol' dent in this big ol' drought Rainfall defecit for the year around 25 in. at IAH currently and will likely approach 30 at the end of the month if we don't see anything from this system. Long range from the GFS shows something all too familiar: a summer-like ridge developing overhead toward the 7 day period, keeping things very dry and warm through the long range. Too much troughiness across the West and the Pacific... This is the time of year when we are supposed to see our first strong fall front of the year (highs in the 70s, lows in the 40s), but I wouldn't be suprised to see us go through this entire month without one. This winter... My lordy loo, I don't want to think about it. So, I'm not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexo Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Just turn it into a good feeling and it will happen! I'm going to take this advice, and I'll let you know what happens Keep tuned, sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 hopefully bastrop county gets some of that the Bastrop fire has been burning for over a month now Evacuation order lifted, fire 75 percent contained Updated: Friday, 07 Oct 2011, 7:41 AM CDT Published : Thursday, 06 Oct 2011, 3:42 PM CDT BASTROP, Texas (KXAN) - Two days since the Old Potato Road fire started, officials now believe this fire started from the original Bastrop Complex Fire. "There are still pockets of heat in the Bastrop Complex Fire. Some embers from that fire combined with dead needles and leaves that have fallen in the past few weeks was enough to ignite and start [Old Potato] fire," said Nichols. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted October 9, 2011 Author Share Posted October 9, 2011 El Nino analog? Why? I would be interested if you posted a forecast or even some thoughts on this winter if you don't want to do a full forecast. You had a lot of talent (and probably still do). El Nino/La Nina are products of global states, not visa-versa. The Tropical Pacific is just reflecting what's going on at the time. There is no reason to assume that ENSO analogs are the only road to victory. Based on constant/predictable motion of celestial bodies that I use as a guide, it looks like we'll have kind of an open pathway in the spot where the Polar Vortex is usually met with resistance. As a result, this Winter should see one constant cold push after another, probably starting as soon as November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 El Nino/La Nina are products of global states, not visa-versa. The Tropical Pacific is just reflecting what's going on at the time. There is no reason to assume that ENSO analogs are the only road to victory. Based on constant/predictable motion of celestial bodies that I use as a guide, it looks like we'll have kind of an open pathway in the spot where the Polar Vortex is usually met with resistance. As a result, this Winter should see one constant cold push after another, probably starting as soon as November. I agree with that, but I do not agree with your other stuff. The forcing will try and promote a SE ridge unlike an El Nino...the extreme blocking last year stopped it so obviously it can look different, but I don't think an active STJ is in the cards this year like '09-'10. That is what produces snowstorms for the mid-atlantic. Maybe you are just talking about temps though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 hopefully bastrop county gets some of that the Bastrop fire has been burning for over a month now That's ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 I'm still trying to understand why a Texas rainfall thread was subjected to several attempts of derailment to and EC winter forecast by SNE staff member. It's good to see some beneficial rains finally falling across the Lone Star State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 I'm still trying to understand why a Texas rainfall thread was subjected to several attempts of derailment to an EC winter forecast thread by a SNE staff member. It's good to see some beneficial rains finally falling across the Lone Star State. do you ask ed these questions when he derails every thread? we miss chuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 I'm still trying to understand why a Texas rainfall thread was subjected to several attempts of derailment to an EC winter forecast thread by a SNE staff member. It's good to see some beneficial rains finally falling across the Lone Star State. ORH is the new ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Hey Chuck.....good to see you post, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Looks like Chuck has become the new Jim Hughes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Looks like Chuck has become the new Jim Hughes BTW, Texas is on fire... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 El Nino/La Nina are products of global states, not visa-versa. The Tropical Pacific is just reflecting what's going on at the time. There is no reason to assume that ENSO analogs are the only road to victory. Based on constant/predictable motion of celestial bodies that I use as a guide, it looks like we'll have kind of an open pathway in the spot where the Polar Vortex is usually met with resistance. As a result, this Winter should see one constant cold push after another, probably starting as soon as November. So then you would disagree that the below average ice/snow in the Arctic is completely irrelevant as to how cold it will be this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 I agree with that, but I do not agree with your other stuff. The forcing will try and promote a SE ridge unlike an El Nino...the extreme blocking last year stopped it so obviously it can look different, but I don't think an active STJ is in the cards this year like '09-'10. That is what produces snowstorms for the mid-atlantic. Maybe you are just talking about temps though. I'd assume he was referring to temps since he mentioned he thought it'd be drier than 09-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 ORH is the new ed Have I derailed a wx side thread in the last 10 months or so? Midlo just gonna hate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 I'm still trying to understand why a Texas rainfall thread was subjected to several attempts of derailment to and EC winter forecast by SNE staff member. It's good to see some beneficial rains finally falling across the Lone Star State. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Good to see you back Chuck. I followed your postings at Eastern for quite a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Hey Chuck, I think the theory of celestial bodies corelating to atmospheric weather is rather interesting, can you please elaborate more? If not can you post a link or point to where I could study this subject a little further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 El Nino/La Nina are products of global states, not visa-versa. The Tropical Pacific is just reflecting what's going on at the time. There is no reason to assume that ENSO analogs are the only road to victory. Based on constant/predictable motion of celestial bodies that I use as a guide, it looks like we'll have kind of an open pathway in the spot where the Polar Vortex is usually met with resistance. As a result, this Winter should see one constant cold push after another, probably starting as soon as November. Chuck, good to see you posting again! Would like to see the above verify....get you back up here for some '07 type LES!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Chuck, missed you buddy, good job killing Bin Laden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 I've been doing work that people wouldn't really want to discuss here. It mostly has to do with planetary cycles and geometric angles since I think that is the source. Long story short, something similar to 09-10 may be possible this year! Definitely drier though. Try reading and commenting on my thread... read every post though. 09-10 is one of my analogs... mainly it's 1898-99 and 1917-18, though. Here's my analog list (my posts collectively hold the method to my madness: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexo Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 I'm going to take this advice, and I'll let you know what happens Keep tuned, sir ^^^^^ I just wanted to let you know, Storm Chaser Chuckeroo, that you were right Absolutely right. Nearly 2 1/2 in. of rain. And it's all because of your advice. I should never let my feelings get the best of me. I feel as if we should go star gazing sometime. Maybe even some croquet under the stars... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexo Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Try reading and commenting on my thread... read every post though. 09-10 is one of my analogs... mainly it's 1898-99 and 1917-18, though. Here's my analog list (my posts collectively hold the method to my madness: [map goes here] I have a hard time believing, after six months of ridging and drought, that a sustained pattern of cold will be able to set up this winter and allow the cold air to "fly" southward into Texas like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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