0z euro rapid update

[KPITblizz]

Wait so what exactly happened? I was reading in the western thread they were all sad and depressed, primary basically goes north giving chi town rain and snowing maybe north wisconsin. Does the secondary look better or something here? Cause now im reading people saying east of 12 z by a lot, and Tombo even had snow for my area?

[tombo82685]

hr 114 976 low 50 miles north of albany..frz line through dc , balt,phl then it goes to sussex co nj to saranac lake...lgt to mod precip dc balt delmarva wa pa and ne pa..mod precip western ny central pa down to se pa

[skierinvermont]

GFS wins this round.

It seems closer to the previous 00z run than to the GFS.. it is still running it right up the Hudson valley. The previous 00z was similar but the primary was more dominant. I think the 12z euro was sort of a fluke for the Euro and it is sort of locking onto a solution like the 00Zs. GFS is out to lunch IMO

[tombo82685]

hr 120 sub 980 low on nh/vt border with canada..frz line past nyc then up the hudson...lgt precip n va dc,balt,delmarva,nj,se pa,eastern pa, nyc....lgt to mod precip lancaster to reading to allentown on north and west to erie on western side and to watertwon on the eastern side...mod precip western ny to north central pa

[tombo82685]

hr 126 low is lifting out lgt precip over ny and pa, excluding the cities

[skierinvermont]

Wait so what exactly happened? I was reading in the western thread they were all sad and depressed, primary basically goes north giving chi town rain and snowing maybe north wisconsin. Does the secondary look better or something here? Cause now im reading people saying east of 12 z by a lot, and Tombo even had snow for my area?

The western people are probably dissapointed because the primary is weak and farther north compared to 12z, but there is more of a secondary than the 12z and so it ends up farther east but still nothing except western NY.

[tombo82685]

cold comes in after the storm 510 thickness over va

[tombo82685]

the 2ndry low is basically a carbon copy of 12z gfs...

[tombo82685]

hr 150 the cold front finally is through maine...sub 516 thickness basically for everyone except nne and southeast

[tombo82685]

storm building in the south at hr 198

[afvet89]

thanks for ur good work again tombo. hopefully this trend can continue and us Pa folks can see some snow.

[tombo82685]

thanks for ur good work again tombo. hopefully this trend can continue and us Pa folks can see some snow.

thanks, i appreciate it.....hr 216 has a sub 1000 low over the souther with precip streaming up to ohio valley

[afvet89]

does it stay cold enuf for snow in the NE thru the entire time?

[H2Otown_WX]

thanks, i appreciate it.....hr 216 has a sub 1000 low over the souther with precip streaming up to ohio valley

Another cutter?

[tombo82685]

Another cutter?

yes, despite the block and 50/50 low it drives right through it, then cuts off over ky

[H2Otown_WX]

yes, despite the block and 50/50 low it drives right through it, then cuts off over ky

How does Canada look in terms of cold air? Is it flooded with warm anomalies like the 12z?

[tombo82685]

How does Canada look in terms of cold air? Is it flooded with warm anomalies like the 12z?

yes, the baffin island area has higher hgts than tampa...all the cold is in western canada which is aimed towards the east, but you need to get a fresh arctic airmass in there.

[H2Otown_WX]

yes, the baffin island area has higher hgts than tampa...all the cold is in western canada which is aimed towards the east, but you need to get a fresh arctic airmass in there.

Thanks tombo.

[nzucker]

How does Canada look in terms of cold air? Is it flooded with warm anomalies like the 12z?

It really looks terrible...the LR lost the Alaska block which just bakes Canada in combination with the 570dm ridge over Baffin Island; almost all of the arctic's heights are above average so there is no room for the cold to develop and then be released, sort of the same problem we had last winter. The cross-polar flow to Canada has been totally cut off by a 558dm ridge over the North Pole, and the only cross polar flow developing looks to be between the split PV in the Fram Strait and Central Russia linked to parts of central Europe and Scandinavia...there's some -30C 850s near Svalbard and approaching -20C in eastern Europe.

[nynjpaweather]

GFS wins this round.

Actually the GFS has been pretty flip/floppy as well. This about the UKMET leading the way, so far.

[iceman56]

Not true....better reread his post....mentions snow possibility but certainly not major.

Yeah, the usual bone he throws the weenies. Chance for another storm late next week that

puts down snow further south and east than the screw zone for this storm. However it will likely wind up

being weak, suppressed and out to sea off the Carolinas.

I kind of like the idea that this storm ends as some snow late Sunday night/early Monday morning and

I think we get a little more accum from flurries and scattered squalls Monday/Tuesday in the

cold air. I can see an inch or two on the ground by midweek.

[North Balti Zen]

Regardless of how this plays out, I am delighted with the disagreement between the UKMET and Euro because the divergance is so vast. If only because the gambler in me likes uncertainty.

[2001kx]

thanks.

sounds pretty good for my area(c-pa).