HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 GFDL is fairly reasonable. A bit further N at around 105 kts. Nothing wrong with that at all if it verifies. What's the heading at the time of that frame-- NNE? NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 It looks like the GFS and the GFDL trended E with the latest run, so now almost every important model (including the Euro, not depicted here) shows landfall SE of PVR. I guess that's positive from a chase perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 What's the heading at the time of that frame-- NNE? NE? N/NNE Would be close to clipping the area we have been talking about today and being further up the coast. Only concern right now is that the movement appears quite slow right now. Rather it make some further inroads towards the coast before making a more pronounced turn to the N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 N/NNE Would be close to clipping the area we have been talking about today and being further up the coast. Only concern right now is that the movement appears quite slow right now. Rather it make some further inroads towards the coast before making a more pronounced turn to the N. Yeah. The situation is so ridiculously irritating, because it's like a mirror image of Irene in NC. It was this same bullsh*t with that one: will it clip Cape Hatteras or miss it? In this analogy, Cabo Corrientes = Cape Hatteras. What do I have to do for a nice, clean, major landfall at a right angle? Do those happen anymore, or is that some kind of old-fashioned thing? OK, time for bed. I'm getting cranky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Full moon overnight 11th-12th, some potential tracks and landfalls could create a dangerous storm surge near Manzanillo. No idea of the normal tidal range there. Looks like it's heading for a landfall about 30-50 miles west of Manzanillo on the satellite loop, but obviously steering currents are weak. Hope it's powerful without doing too much damage. Good luck chasing, the discussion says the storm has weakened slightly but it also looks like it is compacting Charley style. Not that it's moving anywhere near that fast. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Here's some info on the 1959 hurricane. Apparently it destroyed 40% of the houses in Manzanillo, sank ships in the harbour and caused deadly mudslides and (are you ready for this?) unleashed killer scorpions. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1959_Mexico_Hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 It seems to be wobbling just to the right. We are in "The Wobble Zone"...the final wobble or two before landfall writing the history of this storm... JOVA looks sheared out but with zoomed-in animation, it still tries to keep the eyewall closed off. NHC nudged the landfall left/west up the coast but the current wobble keeps Manzanilla in the possible landfall zone. Good drama today!!~ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Josh... Latest projection is further up the coast. Just N of Chamela. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Josh... Latest projection is further up the coast. Just N of Chamela. Basically, they moved it 25 miles west...which implies a big deal with a small storm. Josh: How are you gonna maintain communications updates during the final two or three hours before landfall so you can fine tune your location? It seems that cell phone towers could get knocked out when you really need them. When are you springing for a satellite phone? It wouldn't surprise me if Jova completed an IRC and the eye popped out at the same time that shear and dry air intrusion are elongating the storm. Everything is in equilibrium for Jova to maintain or only very slowly lose strength as it moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Sat image at 13:15z shows the eye clearing out better now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 I think I see the eye reappearing. 6Z GFDL makes landfall just South of C. Corrientes. Almost due North, 3º @ 9 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 It seems to be wobbling just to the right. We are in "The Wobble Zone"...the final wobble or two before landfall writing the history of this storm... JOVA looks sheared out but with zoomed-in animation, it still tries to keep the eyewall closed off. NHC nudged the landfall left/west up the coast but the current wobble keeps Manzanilla in the possible landfall zone. Good drama today!!~ Yep, it took a good wobble I noticed. The latest position is waaaay right, which is awesome. Josh... Latest projection is further up the coast. Just N of Chamela. Yep-- did you get my eMail? I scouted a location that would be perfect for this scenario. Basically, they moved it 25 miles west...which implies a big deal with a small storm. Josh: How are you gonna maintain communications updates during the final two or three hours before landfall so you can fine tune your location? It seems that cell phone towers could get knocked out when you really need them. When are you springing for a satellite phone? It wouldn't surprise me if Jova completed an IRC and the eye popped out at the same time that shear and dry air intrusion are elongating the storm. Everything is in equilibrium for Jova to maintain or only very slowly lose strength as it moves in. I'm reliant on mobile technology until that goes down-- then I'm on my own. The data coverage is fairly good in a large portion of this region, so I should be OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 OK, so I just woke up, and I'm pleased with two developments this morning: * The 'cane looks much better than it did last night. * It majorlyu wobbled or relocated to to the right, which makes the possibility of landfall in my "sweet spot" (between Jose Maria Morelos and Manzanillo) higher. Cool. Feeling a bit better this morning. Just a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 I'm waiting for the eye to become visible on visible again, not quite there, so I can upload it and make it a permanent part of this thread. Good luck Josh. Jorge must be kicking himself, this still looks like at least a high end two to me. At least. Edit to add CIMMS ADT UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.3 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 11 OCT 2011 Time : 131500 UTC Lat : 17:43:31 N Lon : 105:37:24 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 5.4 / 958.2mb/ 99.6kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 5.0 5.5 5.7 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km Center Temp : -43.2C Cloud Region Temp : -70.7C Scene Type : EYE Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak22 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Glad to hear Manzanillo is still the same - you described it perfectly. I've been to many cities in Mexico, and haven't found anything remotely like it. And take the warning about the scorpions seriously. They are all over that area. We used to shake our shoes every morning to be sure that nothing had crawled in there overnight as they like dark confined places. 20 years later, and I still shake my shoes every now and then without thinking about it! The Jalisco coast is pretty amazing. Club Med was in Costa Careyes. Take away the scorpions, the mudslides, the fact that the plumbing would break every summer and the rough trip in from Puerto Vallarta, and it was heaven - definitely my favorite Club that I worked at! Take care - I hope you get a direct hit, but that the area doesn't get destroyed. I'll be looking for the pics and videos! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 It looks better this morning than it did last night... so that's definitely a good thing. Good luck, Josh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 I'm waiting for the eye to become visible on visible again, not quite there, so I can upload it and make it a permanent part of this thread. Good luck Josh. Jorge must be kicking himself, this still looks like at least a high end two to me. At least. Thanks, Ed-- I really appreciate it. Glad to hear Manzanillo is still the same - you described it perfectly. I've been to many cities in Mexico, and haven't found anything remotely like it. And take the warning about the scorpions seriously. They are all over that area. We used to shake our shoes every morning to be sure that nothing had crawled in there overnight as they like dark confined places. 20 years later, and I still shake my shoes every now and then without thinking about it! The Jalisco coast is pretty amazing. Club Med was in Costa Careyes. Take away the scorpions, the mudslides, the fact that the plumbing would break every summer and the rough trip in from Puerto Vallarta, and it was heaven - definitely my favorite Club that I worked at! Take care - I hope you get a direct hit, but that the area doesn't get destroyed. I'll be looking for the pics and videos! Hey, thanks! Agreed, Manzanillo is extremely unique. I am not sure if you saw my post about it last night, but I was pretty taken by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 It looks better this morning than it did last night... so that's definitely a good thing. Good luck, Josh! Thanks very much, and agreed-- it looks much better this morning. I was kind of surprised, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Thanks very much, and agreed-- it looks much better this morning. I was kind of surprised, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Thanks very much, and agreed-- it looks much better this morning. I was kind of surprised, actually. Yeah when I looked at the satellite loop before bed last night I thought you were going to be disappointed but the weakening leveled off overnight and it has made a bit of a resurgence. Game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Meh, haters are goin' to hate. It looks like just a touch of dry air may have been ingested. Water temps are very supportive (30 C) all the way to the coast. I suspect Jova is still at least a 105kt cyclone. Let's give it a few hours before tossing it under the bus. Thanks very much, and agreed-- it looks much better this morning. I was kind of surprised, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 Yeah when I looked at the satellite loop before bed last night I thought you were going to be disappointed but the weakening leveled off overnight and it has made a bit of a resurgence. Game on! Yep, totally. Game on, it is! Pipe down, you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 another backside special for josh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Yep-- did you get my eMail? I scouted a location that would be perfect for this scenario. Yeah. Sent you some more info. Looking good right now though may need to make slight adjustment to get right into the core. Recon is on its way and we can fine tune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Agreed, Manzanillo is extremely unique. I am not sure if you saw my post about it last night, but I was pretty taken by it. Sounds very cool. I think the Blue Dolphin is a sailfish. Jova looking like a pretty decent hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 another backside special for josh? Interesting to see that MW image, because I was thinking the same thing looking at the IR. With this one, I kind of want it to be front heavy, since it looks like the center is going to cross the coast very late in the day. But, anyhoo, what I want is pretty irrelevant. P.S. That MW is waaaay better than last one. Yeah. Sent you some more info. Looking good right now though may need to make slight adjustment to get right into the core. Recon is on its way and we can fine tune. Yep, I definitely have to go up the coast a tad-- just not sure how much at this point. I'm going to check out of the hotel in ZLO this morning and just start driving N. From this end of my "sweet spot" to the other is only about 2 hr, so I'm cool on time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 Jova's structure is very "bandy"-- like, even on the IR, you can see the distinct bands. It's interesting. Light to moderate rain here in ZLO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Where is da live video feed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 Where is da live video feed? Ha ha ha, I get asked that on occasion. That's not my game at all. I'm more into carefully editing the footage and posting finished product later on. I know that's going against the trend a bit. I guess it's a matter of taste, but as a viewer, I love watching selected highlights. Even in a big 'cane, I find live feeds kinda... dull. That aside, over the years, I've been trying hard to keep my chasing simple so I can actually take a moment and watch/experience the storm. I chase solo more than half the time, and between the car, the computers (2), the phone, the videocam, and the weather instruments and related equipment, I start to feel a little bogged down. So no live feed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Stay safe Josh and hope you get some awesome footage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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